Will This Be The Year Without A Hurricane? Quietest Atlantic Season Since1914. Pacific Buzzing With Hurricanes, Though

Satellite view of Category 5 Hurricane Polo off the
southwest coast of Mexico on Tuesday. While the
Atlantic Ocean is setting records for a lack of hurricanes,
the Pacific Ocean is really busy. The root 
cause of all this is a record strong El Nino

People from Texas to Maine are usually nervous this time of year, as hurricanes are almost always lurking in the Atlantic Ocean this time of year. 

This year, it's practically crickets out there in the Atlantic. That trend is continuing. 

It's the first time since 1914 that there have been no hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean by now. The year 1907 was another occasion in which there'd been no hurricanes by September 22. 

However,  in 1907 and 1914, there might actually have been at least a hurricane or two.  Such a storm might have been way out in the Atlantic Ocean and just totally missed by us humans. There were obviously no satellites to track storms way back then. 

This year, we have had six tropical storms, which have winds between 39 and 73 mph. We almost had our first hurricane Sunday and Monday, but not quite. 

Tropical Storm Fay in the far eastern Atlantic almost got to hurricane status Sunday night and early Monday. Sustained wind reached 70 mph, just 4 mph less than hurricane force. But those El Nino upper level winds blew it apart, and it had weakened to a remnant low by Tuesday. 

El Nino, That's what's preventing the Atlantic hurricanes. El Nino always tends to create strong upper level winds over the Atlantic.  Those winds are kyrptonite to wannabe hurricanes, shearing apart the thunderstorms that are the ingredients for these storms. 

Usually, even in an El Nino year, at least a couple hurricanes sneak into existence somewhere in the Atlantic Ocean, finding relatively calm spots amid those strong upper level winds. 

This year, El Nino is at record strength, and it appears it's helping to cause wall--to-wall hostile winds in the atmosphere. 

The remnants of Fay in the central Atlantic Ocean is forecast to briefly restrengthen into a tropical storm, then get blown apart by those winds. Another disturbance just off the west coast of Africa might also develop into a tropical storm before being nuked by those high level winds, too. 

STRONG UPPER WINDS HELP NOR'EASTER?

That's not to say a strong non-tropical storm can't form in the Atlantic.  Regular storms don't wilt when faced with strong high altitude winds. And these storms can gain extra strength from warm waters. A nor'easter is due along or off the coast of the Northeast this weekend. This storm might be pretty strong, with an added boost of energy from those warm offshore waters.

Cold core storms like the expected nor'easter don't fall apart when there's strong wind shear. In fact, wind shear can help intensity them.

Here's why. Hurricanes are warm core. They tend to be symmetrical Their  center is a vertical "chimney" that vents the heat up and out. Strong winds aloft displace the heat above the eye of the storm and tilt the whole structure of the hurricane.  That limits the updrafts that feed the thunderstorms that make up the core of the hurricane. So, with high-speed air up high, a hurricane stands no chance.  

Cold core storms like our pending nor'easter are not symmetric and don't rely on a "chimney" to fuel them. Instead, they gather their energy from a contrast in temperatures across the storm zone. 

Strong upper level winds can actually help a cold-core storm intensify by bending the jet stream in such a way to add a lot of rising air to the system. The rising air creates precipitation and helps streghthen the storm. 

PACIFIC OCEAN

Meanwhile, El Nino helps hurricanes in the Pacific Ocean. And this year, the Pacific is swarming with hurricanes. Hurricane Polo formed last weekend off the coast of southwest Mexico. It exploded from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane within 24 hours, one of the fastest such intensifications on record for a hurricane. 

Hurricane Polo was still a strong hurricane as of today, and should stay just off the western Mexican coast the next few days, throwing rain bands, gusty winds and battering waves at that coast. 

Hurricane Odalys is further off the coast of Mexico, with top winds today at 75 mph. It should eventually weaken as it heads northeastward. 

Meanwhile, Hawaii, already side swept earlier this year by two hurricanes that each caused a lot of damage, is  under the gun again. 

A tropical depression has formed well south of the islands. It's expected to move north toward the islands while it strengthens into a major hurricane. It is forecast to make a hard left turn before reaching the islands,  but it could easily come close enough to cause another huge headache. 

Given the weather pattern, there will almost surely be more hurricanes in the Pacific before the tropical season ends in November. 

Tropical Storm Eduoard Drowns Part Of Texas; ; But Storms Lacking In Atlantic; Pacific Ocean Is Wild, Though

Although the Atlantic Ocean is quiet, hurricanes are
spinning up frequently in the very warm Pacific Ocean.
from left to right, Hurricane Lowell south of Hawaii,
Hurricane Karina in the middle and Hurricane Marie
off the west coast of Mexico

Tropical Storm Edouard made landfall as a 60 mph tropical storm just east of the mouth of the Sabine River in far southwestern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon.  

It might have not been the strongest tropical system ever, but it showed remarkable staying power as it moved inland. Tropical storms tend to fall apart quickly once they move inland. Edouard did not.

Nearly 24 hours after making landfall, it still kept its general shape. Wind advisories for gusts up to 40 mph were in effect two days after landfall. 

The real problem, though, was the flooding. The storm dumped 18 to 24 inches on some areas of East Texas. In one town, 27.53 inches of rain fell. This all forced  dozens of rescues from flooded cars, homes, even an assisted living facility. 

So it was a destructive mess, but at least it wasn't as bad as a full hurricane.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Edouard was a persistent little devil. But this is the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. You'd expect full-blown hurricanes this time of year, but nothing. We've had five tropical storms this year in the Atlantic, and none made it to hurricane status. 

Three of the storms - Arthur, Bertha and Edouard - affected the western Gulf Coast. 

The United States is enjoying a very quiet hurricane season so far thanks to the big giant El Nino that has developed eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. El Ninos affect weather patterns around the world.

In the Atlantic Ocean, El Nino creates strong upper level winds. Tropical storms start out as clumps of thunderstorms over the tropical oceans.  The strong upper level winds rips those storms apart. Or, if a tropical storm or hurricane has formed and then encounters those strong winds way high up, the thunderstorms in the tropical system either get ripped apart or get tugged away from the storm's center, causing a weakening trend.

Unless things change dramatically in the Atlantic Ocean soon, this could easily be among the quietest hurricane seasons on record. Which is a nice switch from the slew of busy, destructive seasons we've had in recent years. 

The East Coast of the United States is being spared a bad hurricane season, but we're not out of the woods. We could always have a late season hurricane. And El Nino could well create extreme late autumn and winter storms that would cause their own damage. 

PACIFIC OCEAN

On the other hand, Pacific Ocean hurricanes love El Ninos. 

The ocean is oddly warm during El Ninos, and upper level winds are light. Perfect conditions for incubating hurricanes. 

This year, hurricanes have been forming one after another in the eastern Pacific Ocean and then heading west.

Hurricane Lowell is currently the most concerning of the bunch. It was spinning several hundred miles south of Hawaii. It's was a major hurricane with winds of 140 mph. Meteorologists think it will turn a sharp turn north and eventually pass perilously close to the western Hawaiian islands. However, that forecast is still really uncertain, so stay tuned. 

As of Thursday morning, Hurricane Karina was churned well east of the Hawaii with top winds of 115 mph..

.Hurricane Marie was several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. It had winds of 90 mph and was strengthening as it headed northwestward away from Mexico

Another tropical storm could form off the southwest coast of Mexico in the coming days.  

Pacific "Marine Heat Wave" Threatens Wildlife, Alters Weather, Is Sign Of Climate Change

Temperatures are far above normal in almost all of
the North Pacific from Asia to the North American
west coast. It's altering weather patterns over
a wide area. 

The entire northern Pacific Ocean is insanely warm, and its gobsmacking scientists, screwing up the environment and weather patterns and is increasing worries about climate change.  

 As CNN reports:

"A record-breaking and astonishingly expansive marine heat wave is underway in the Pacific Ocean, stretching about 5,000 miles from the water around Japan to the West Coast of the United States. 

The abnormal warm 'blob' of ocean water, which is getting a significant boost from human-caused global warming, is affecting the weather on land and could have ripple effects on marine life."

Water temperature in the north Pacific in August were the hottest on record.

The hot water has already contributed to making summer, 2025 the hottest on record in Japan. Lately, the warm water, combined with the remnants of tropical systems that originated off the coast of Mexico, has made California weather weird. 

It's been strangely humid off and on in the Golden State, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms. It's weather you'd expect in places like Georgia or Louisiana, not California. 

When the winter storm season comes on the West Coast, the hot water could intensify the atmospheric rivers that occasionally come ashore anywhere from southeast Alaska and British Columbia all the way down to southern California. 

The added ocean heat could add moisture to the already sopping wet atmospheric rivers, increasing the chances of flooding. 

This isn't the first time there have been one of these big Pacific Ocean marine heat waves. They've been  hitting with increasing frequency and strength for more than a decade now. 

CNN again:

"As climate change causes more heat to be stored in the oceans, ocean temperatures are reaching new heights that could lead to more significant impacts from heat waves like this. 

The North Pacific warmed at the fastest rate of any ocean basin on Earth during the past decade, according to Michael McPhaden, a senior scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration."

These Pacific marine heat waves had huge effects on wildlife. Nearly one million common murries, died of starvation because the the warm water altered the food supply.  This was the largest known bird species die off on record. Other marine animals, such as  tufted puffins, sea lions and baleen whales. 

Marine heat waves are becoming more common everywhere in the world. According to a study in Nature, between 1925 and 2016 there was a 54 percent increase in annual marine heat wave days around the world.

Since climate change is making these marine heat waves worse and more frequent, these wildlife deaths paint an ominous picture of the future. 

As for the current Pacific marine heat wave,  it's possible the heat in the Pacific might be having an effect on overall atmospheric patterns. Nobody is yet sure, but the very dry, generally warm conditions that have put us here in Vermont into a deep drought might be partly related to the Pacific Ocean heat. 

It could also affect wintertime weather patterns. An intense marine heat wave in the Pacific messed with the jet stream during the winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15. 

The hot Pacific water created a northward bulge in the jet stream in western North America, and that, in turn caused a serious southward dip in that jet stream into the middle and eastern parts of the United States.

Both winters were intensely cold in the Northeast and much of the Midwest, contrasting with the overall warming trend over the past few decades in those location. 

According to Accuweather Lead Long Range Forecaster Paul Pasterlok, the northern branch of the jet stream during a La Nina tends to bring fast moving, not so intense storms to the East, which tends to produce modest snowfalls and temperatures close to normal. 

Here in Vermont, we had our fourth coldest March in 2014 and our third coldest February in 2015. Boston had by far its snowiest winter on record in 2015.

Something similar could happen this winter, but before you panic over heating bills and snow-blocked roads, a cold winter is definitely far from a guarantee this year.

First of all, other atmospheric circulations will need to roughly match those cold winters of 2014 and 2015 to give us a repeat. That might not happen. Second, there's no guarantee the Pacific Ocean heat will last. 

In 2013 to 2016, the weird heat in the northeast Pacific, off the Canadian and U.S. west coasts, extended deep into the water. This year, the ocean heat doesn't go nearly as deep down as it did a decade ago. Normal autumn storms will likely bring cooler water to the surface, since waves won't have to dig deep to find that cooler water. 

Climate change or global warming has often been described as global weirding. The Pacific ocean heat is just one of many examples of that.  

Two Cool Satellite Photos, One Of Them For Us In Vermont

A satellite view of the Pacific Ocean Friday shows
two graceful looking storms and a giant number 7
between British Columbia and Alaska's Aleutian Islands. 

 I'm always fascinated by satellite photos showing how clouds behave, and how the landscape below the clouds change with the season, or change with different weather.  

There's two cool examples here. 

LUCKY #7

The first was taken Friday over the Pacific Ocean. The two storm are interesting enough as they are. 

Both of them - one off the California coast, another larger one northwest of Hawaii, feature two graceful cold fronts hanging south and southwestward from the  main storm. 

As you can see, most of the northern Pacific Ocean is cloudy in the photo, except for the giant number 7 shaped area of clear skies. That's what everybody honed in on the most. It didn't signify any particular weather, other than a gap between storms, but it was a pretty unusual pattern nonetheless. 

The storm to the right of the seven looks vaguely like a six, so I guess the Pacific Ocean was in a 76 mood on Friday. Whatever that means.  Seventy-six more storms to hit the West Coast before spring? California certainly hopes not. 

BIRD'S EYE VIEW, END OF WINTER 

Visible satellite photo from Saturday afternoon shows
an unseasonable lack of show in the valleys of 
western Vermont, not a great snow cover elsewhere,
and if you look closely, very little ice in the lakes. 

The second photo is much closer to home. It was taken Saturday afternoon, a rare crystal clear day during such an overcast winter. 

Again click on the photo to make it bigger and easier to see. 

First, you can see the paltry snow cover for this time of year in and around Vermont. 

The Champlain Valley and the southeastern tip of Vermont are devoid of snow.   The snow does cover most of the rest of Vermont, but it looks weak, like there's plenty of bare spots in the low elevations.

Ice on Lake Champlain should be peaking by now, but it still shows dark blue in the visible satellite photo, indicating a serious lack of ice. 

You can also see the eastern end of Lake Ontario, the Finger Lakes in western New York. a fairly big chunk of Lake Winnipesaukee (SP) in New Hamphire and Sebago Lake in Maine all free of ice.

The only parts of the satellite photo that looks normal for this time of year is north of the St. Lawrence River in Canada. There, we see frozen lakes and what appears to be a pretty substantial snow cover. 

The lame snow cover in New England should retreat further this week during yet another expected warm spell. Following a brief return to winter Thursday and Friday, more premature spring weather seems due. 

Hurricanes Around The World Took A Strange, Long Pause In October/November

This map looks like spaghetti thrown against a wall, but it
a map of all the Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes 
this year. It was the 6th busy season in a row.

 For some reason, the world temporarily stopped seeing hurricanes for more than a month.  That, my friends, is rather strange. 

As the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang reported last week:

"It's not just the Atlantic that's been eerily quiet. All across the world, the tropics have been devoid of significant cyclone activity. Not a single hurricane-strength storm has formed anywhere on the planet since October 29, a calm occupying the Northern and Southern hemispheres. That's happened only twice before since 1966, according to Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University."

The other two years were 1973 and 2012.

The tropical weather drought finally ended a couple days ago with the formation of a typhoon in the western Pacific Ocean.  This typhoon is expected to pass east of the Philippines this week, then dissipate.  

Whether they're called hurricanes, typhoons, cyclones or whatever, they are all the same thing. A strong storm, born in the tropics, with a warm core, no warm or cold fronts and lots of destructive potential with top sustained winds of 74 mph or greater. 

Maybe even more strangely, there has not been a strong hurricane in the world since September 25. A strong hurricane, or cyclone, or typhoon, whatever you want to call it, is a Category 3 on a scale of one to five, with top winds of at least 111 mph.

Up until early October, the Atlantic Ocean hurricanes season was a messy and destructive powerhouse. It was one of the busiest seasons on record. It was also, remarkably, the sixth consecutive Atlantic hurricane season with well above normal activity.

The list of potential hurricane names was exhausted. Tropical storm Wanda did manage to form in the Atlantic in early November, and Wanda was the last name on the list. Its winds stayed under 74 mph, so it the world's hurricane-free streak contineud.  Wanda, by the way, was the first known tropical storm to form from what had been a destructive New England nor'easter, as Jeff Masters notes in Yale Climate Connections.

While we're talking about New England, Masters has this bit of weird 2021 tropical storm trivia. 

Back around August 11, a strong non tropical storm system caused a line of severe, destructive thunderstorms in Michigan and the Mid-Atlantic States, causing an estimated $1.1 billion in damage. The storm moved off the coast, turned into a tropical storm and then eventually made landfall as a tropical storm in Westerly, Rhode Island. This whole scenario was a first, too! 

The Atlantic tropical season officially ended on Tuesday.  However, there is a very low, but not zero chance of tropical development in the Atlantic during December. It's happened before.   This year, the Atlantic, after being super busy, just gave up the ghost in October.

Generally speaking, when the Atlantic hurricane season is busy, the northern half of the Pacific Ocean tends to be quiet, 

As the Washington Post explains it, we're in an La Nina pattern, which favors cool waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean. That helps create lighter upper level winds in the Atlantic Ocean. If upper level winds are lighter, nascent tropical storms have a better chance of forming. So it's no surprise most of the Atlantic season was busy this year. 

And also not a big surprise that the western Pacific Ocean was relatively quiet in 2021. 

At the same time La Nina tends to increase upper level winds in the Pacific, which helps explain why hurricanes and typhoons were relatively hard to come by there. 

The mystery is why the Atlantic hurricane season mercifully collapsed in October. Often, the Caribbean Sea gives birth to tropical systems in October and November, but this year it did not. Perhaps there was too much sinking air that prevented thunderstorms from developing. Tropical storms there can develop from these clusters of storms.  

I wouldn't make too much of this collapse in tropical storm activity, which seems to be ending now. There doesn't seem to be any good conclusions as to whether climate change will increase the global supply of hurricanes. 

Climate change is probably making some of them stronger, or making some tropical storms form in weird places or weird times.  But the world will always have busy hurricane episodes, and quiet ones, too. Raise a glass to the quiet times, right?