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| Satellite view of Category 5 Hurricane Polo off the southwest coast of Mexico on Tuesday. While the Atlantic Ocean is setting records for a lack of hurricanes, the Pacific Ocean is really busy. The root cause of all this is a record strong El Nino |
This year, it's practically crickets out there in the Atlantic. That trend is continuing.
It's the first time since 1914 that there have been no hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean by now. The year 1907 was another occasion in which there'd been no hurricanes by September 22.
However, in 1907 and 1914, there might actually have been at least a hurricane or two. Such a storm might have been way out in the Atlantic Ocean and just totally missed by us humans. There were obviously no satellites to track storms way back then.
This year, we have had six tropical storms, which have winds between 39 and 73 mph. We almost had our first hurricane Sunday and Monday, but not quite.
Tropical Storm Fay in the far eastern Atlantic almost got to hurricane status Sunday night and early Monday. Sustained wind reached 70 mph, just 4 mph less than hurricane force. But those El Nino upper level winds blew it apart, and it had weakened to a remnant low by Tuesday.
El Nino, That's what's preventing the Atlantic hurricanes. El Nino always tends to create strong upper level winds over the Atlantic. Those winds are kyrptonite to wannabe hurricanes, shearing apart the thunderstorms that are the ingredients for these storms.
Usually, even in an El Nino year, at least a couple hurricanes sneak into existence somewhere in the Atlantic Ocean, finding relatively calm spots amid those strong upper level winds.
This year, El Nino is at record strength, and it appears it's helping to cause wall--to-wall hostile winds in the atmosphere.
The remnants of Fay in the central Atlantic Ocean is forecast to briefly restrengthen into a tropical storm, then get blown apart by those winds. Another disturbance just off the west coast of Africa might also develop into a tropical storm before being nuked by those high level winds, too.
STRONG UPPER WINDS HELP NOR'EASTER?
That's not to say a strong non-tropical storm can't form in the Atlantic. Regular storms don't wilt when faced with strong high altitude winds. And these storms can gain extra strength from warm waters. A nor'easter is due along or off the coast of the Northeast this weekend. This storm might be pretty strong, with an added boost of energy from those warm offshore waters.
Cold core storms like the expected nor'easter don't fall apart when there's strong wind shear. In fact, wind shear can help intensity them.
Here's why. Hurricanes are warm core. They tend to be symmetrical Their center is a vertical "chimney" that vents the heat up and out. Strong winds aloft displace the heat above the eye of the storm and tilt the whole structure of the hurricane. That limits the updrafts that feed the thunderstorms that make up the core of the hurricane. So, with high-speed air up high, a hurricane stands no chance.
Cold core storms like our pending nor'easter are not symmetric and don't rely on a "chimney" to fuel them. Instead, they gather their energy from a contrast in temperatures across the storm zone.
Strong upper level winds can actually help a cold-core storm intensify by bending the jet stream in such a way to add a lot of rising air to the system. The rising air creates precipitation and helps streghthen the storm.
PACIFIC OCEAN
Meanwhile, El Nino helps hurricanes in the Pacific Ocean. And this year, the Pacific is swarming with hurricanes. Hurricane Polo formed last weekend off the coast of southwest Mexico. It exploded from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane within 24 hours, one of the fastest such intensifications on record for a hurricane.
Hurricane Polo was still a strong hurricane as of today, and should stay just off the western Mexican coast the next few days, throwing rain bands, gusty winds and battering waves at that coast.
Hurricane Odalys is further off the coast of Mexico, with top winds today at 75 mph. It should eventually weaken as it heads northeastward.
Meanwhile, Hawaii, already side swept earlier this year by two hurricanes that each caused a lot of damage, is under the gun again.
A tropical depression has formed well south of the islands. It's expected to move north toward the islands while it strengthens into a major hurricane. It is forecast to make a hard left turn before reaching the islands, but it could easily come close enough to cause another huge headache.
Given the weather pattern, there will almost surely be more hurricanes in the Pacific before the tropical season ends in November.
