Very Mild Vermont November Week'; Forecasters Unfortunately Reduce Expected Rainfall Totals

Camels Hump pokes from behind some other hills in
Richmond, Vermont yesterday. It's stick season, but
it doesn't feel like it this week, as we're enjoying
some unusually mild weather this week. 

 Monday brought Vermont some of the warm weather we wish we had more of during the second half of October. 

Burlington had a nice warm high of 68 degrees Monday after a balmy low of 52, which meant the day was 16 degrees warmer than average. 

That's the largest departure for any date in Burlington since May 19, when an early season heat wave pushed us to 20 degrees above normal. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, Monday was just as warm or warmer than Burlington. Montpelier reached 69 degrees. It was 70 in St. Johnsbury and a toasty 72 in Springfield. 

This morning started warm, too, with low temperatures statewide in the mid 40s to low 50s. This helps set us up for four days of warm November temperatures before it's back to reality.  

So, let's get into it, like we do every morning. 

TODAY

It will actually be a bit cooler today than yesterday, thanks to clouds and some light showers that will should sprinkle the northern parts of the state. 

But it will still be warmer than normal. Where the rain falls most frequently in the far north, highs will be in the upper 50s, which is nearly ten degrees above normal. Southern valleys, which likely woh't receive any rain at all, highs could touch the upper 60s. 

Areas along and north of Route 2 will probably have less than a tenth of an inch of rain. Maybe a touch more near Jay Peak.  No rain is expected in central and southern Vermont, just clouds. 

WEDNESDAY

After another balmy morning, the day will turn out partly to mostly sunny and warm. Very warm. Maybe record warm. This morning's forecast has a predicted high of 73 which would tie the record high for the date. 

The National Weather Service has Montpelier reaching 74 degrees. Their record high tomorrow is 72 degrees. The forecast high in St. Johnsbury is 72, close to the record high of 73. 

Enjoy it, as Wednesday will likely be the warmest day until next spring. 

THURSDAY

A weather front will approach us from the west, a little earlier in the day than first thought. Which means the rain will arrive earlier than first thought. Light rain will move into western Vermont by early to mid morning and spread into the rest of the state by noon, give or take. 

Given how dry it has been, we need a soaker. Unfortunately, this will not be a soaker. Just light rain. Most of us will just receive 0.1 to 0.25 of rain, maybe a little less than in southeastern Vermont.  It won't be enough to ease our dry conditions, but we'll take anything we can get. 

FRIDAY: 

The front will have gone by to our east, but an upper level trough of low pressure will linger overhead.. That means we'll have lots  of clouds and a chance of showers. Cooler air will stay bottled up to our northwest for one more day, so we'll see some mild low 60s for highs despite the clouds. 

SATURDAY

A couple days ago, we hoped a storm would form along the front along the East Coast, then curl northwestward toward New England, drenching Vermont in a soaking rain. 

So much for that idea. The storm will form, but will stay far enough away so that we won't see a soaking rain. Maybe some showers.  It'll be a little cooler but still not bad, with highs in the 50s. 

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

Sunday is several days away, so we can't be too confident about the forecast. But for now, it's looking partly sunny and seasonably cool. There are more chances of rain next week.