November Gloom Has Descended On Vermont; Not Going Away Soon

Forecasters are watching a potential storm late in
the week. This map is one scenario for Thursday
morning showing a storm developing south of us.
At this point, anything could happen. It could stay
to our south, not develop much, or give us
our first bout of wintry weather of the season. 

Sorry, getting a late start today, but let's get into  it. 

Those gorgeous, sunny days that began November are long gone. It's been back to reality since Saturday and it's not going away anytime soon. 

November is the cloudiest month of the year, though December is about tied. So we have a lot of overcast skies to look forward to.

Meanwhile, there's still a TON of questions regarding the potential storm toward Friday. Some models have a total whiff for us, others give us a fair amount of snow and/or rain or something in between. More on that in a bit. 

After the Saturday rain failed to materialize, the next in a series of rapid-fire disturbances gave us a little rain last night. Burlington got a quarter inch. Most other areas got much  less, unfortunately. 

So, here's the forecast 

TODAY

Scattered showers will linger today under cloudy skies. Typical November. The National Weather Service says a few heavier showers might have some graupel, which is sort of sleety, half frozen snowy-ish pellets. 

Highs should be near normal -within a few degrees either side of 50 degrees. 

TUESDAY

The next in that spray of disturbances coming from the northwest will give us another gloomy day. Northern areas could receive another tenth to as much as a quarter inch of rain. Central and southern Vermont will only see less than a tenth of an inch of rain. So, nothing substantial. But it's still too dry out there, so we'll take everything we can get

Highs should be in the 40s to around 50. Again, very typical for November.

As temperatures cool, a little snow should fall in the high elevations, but it shouldn't amount to much. 

WEDNESDAY

This will be the "nicest" day of the week. There will be no rain or snow to speak of, but skies should remain mostly cloudy. I suppose there could be some quick breaks of sun in the broader valleys, but it will be far from a blue sky day. 

Highs should again be in the 40s, to maybe 50 in the warmest valleys.  A north breeze will make it feel nippier. 

THURSDAY

It could be the calm before the storm. Or just a calm day before no storm We don't know yet. But in any event, we also don't expect any rain or snow. Highs again should be in the 40s to around 50.

FRIDAY

Here's the day where pretty much anything could happen. We just don't have enough information to tell. The forecasts will become better within a few days once we have better upper air sampling. 

Some models don't really get the storm's act together, and suppress the storm to its south.  So we just get another cloudy November day.

Other models get the storm's act together and flings it up the coast, spreading potentially heavy, wet snow our way, maybe mixed with a little rain. 

Or, we could just get the outer fringes of this thing, and we just get some snow or rain showers. Stay tuned on this one. 

NEXT WEEKEND

Oddly, the forecast for next weekend is a little easier than Friday's forecast. Whatever that storm does, it should be north and east of us by then. It will send cold north wind our way. That means more cloudy skies, chances of valley rain and mountain snow showers, and highs just in the 37 to 47 degree range. 

Another Vermont Autumn, Another Record Hot Spell, Only Light Rain Coming Instead Of Needed Soaker

Some lingering golden leaves on trees in Burlington,
Vermont yesterday amid record high temperatures. 

 A couple weeks ago, I thought this autumn might break from recent tradition and yield no record warm spells in Vermont. 

Yesterday dispelled that notion. 

The updates show some impressively warm weather across the state on Wednesday. Burlington actually had one of the "cooler" high temperatures at 73 degrees, with tied the record for the date. Burlington's low temperature for yesterday was 59 degrees. breaking the record for the warmest low for the date by five degrees.

The record-smashing was even more impressive elsewhere in Vermont. Montpelier reached an impressive 76 degrees, besting the 72 degrees original set in 2022. St. Johnsbury was almost hot - reaching 77 degrees. That beat the old record by four degrees. 

Autumn in Vermont aren't what they used to be, that's for sure. 

Until now, this autumn was a little closer to they way they used to be. Not much in the way of summer weather, a fair number of frosty mornings in October. But yesterday changed that, for now 

We've alway had the occasional warm spell. But lately, it's been a nearly yearly occurrence. 

In 2022, Burlington reached 76 degrees in November 6, the hottest temperature on record for the month. On October 4, 2023. it was 86 degrees in Burlington, the hottest reading on record for the entire month October.

On Halloween, 2024, it was 77 degrees in Burlington, the warmest for so late in the season. Plattsburgh New York got to an incredible 83 degrees that day. Last October, the record hot temperature of 86 degrees was tied in Burlington. Montpelier also reached its record high for the month of 84 degrees.

Now we had another autumn record spell. Not quite as big a recent years, but still. 

FORECAST

It's going to stay balmy for the next couple of days. Not quite record warm, but still. Let's get into it. 

Today

A little rain is coming through this morning, but I'm completely unimpressed by how much. Most of us will see less than a tenth of an inch of rain. Mostly this morning. 

The air is unusually humid for this time of year, but there's not much lift in the atmosphere. Without the lift, you don't get much rain. So the moisture in the air is basically wasted. 

Be glad little bits and sprinkles of more rain is on the way for the next few days. That will keep the risk of forest fires suppressed some until we get a nice soaker. Some day. New England needs it. An illegal brush pile fire in Ferrisburgh, Vermont spread yesterday, It took six fire crews to contain the blaze. 

A much bigger fire is burning through rugged terrain near the northern New Hampshire/western Maine border. That fire has chewed through about 1,000 acres and at last report was only 11 percent contained. 

Back here in Vermont, it will still be very warm, but not quite record breaking. Highs should get into the mid and upper 60s. Breaks in the clouds this afternoon should help boost those temperatures. 

With the warmth and unusual humidity - dew points are in 50s to near 60, we actually have a shot of some thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening. Especially in far northwestern Vermont. 

Friday

Still warm. Dawn will break with temperatures near 50, which is a near-normal high for this time of year. Afternoon temperatures should reach the mid-60s. We'll be caught between a very wet, nearly stalled weather front along the southeastern New England coast and an upper level low near western New York.

The result for us is almost no chance of rain, and partly sunny skies

Saturday

Back to reality. The upper low in western New York will amble in, creating a lot of showers. This is our best shot at getting some fairly decent rain, but so far I'm not too impressed. So far, it looks like the best chance of good rains is in southern Vermont, but that depends on the track of this thing. 

For now, it's looking like most of us will receive less than a quarter inch of rain, which is much less than we really need. 

It'll be cooler, too, but not ridiculous for November. We'll put highs in the 50s.

Sunday/Next Week

A dip in the jet stream will keep the weather unsettled and cool, but with no big storms. We'll have frequent chances of showers, which will probably mix with snow at times, especially in the mountains. 

It's that time of year, folks!

Very Mild Vermont November Week'; Forecasters Unfortunately Reduce Expected Rainfall Totals

Camels Hump pokes from behind some other hills in
Richmond, Vermont yesterday. It's stick season, but
it doesn't feel like it this week, as we're enjoying
some unusually mild weather this week. 

 Monday brought Vermont some of the warm weather we wish we had more of during the second half of October. 

Burlington had a nice warm high of 68 degrees Monday after a balmy low of 52, which meant the day was 16 degrees warmer than average. 

That's the largest departure for any date in Burlington since May 19, when an early season heat wave pushed us to 20 degrees above normal. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, Monday was just as warm or warmer than Burlington. Montpelier reached 69 degrees. It was 70 in St. Johnsbury and a toasty 72 in Springfield. 

This morning started warm, too, with low temperatures statewide in the mid 40s to low 50s. This helps set us up for four days of warm November temperatures before it's back to reality.  

So, let's get into it, like we do every morning. 

TODAY

It will actually be a bit cooler today than yesterday, thanks to clouds and some light showers that will should sprinkle the northern parts of the state. 

But it will still be warmer than normal. Where the rain falls most frequently in the far north, highs will be in the upper 50s, which is nearly ten degrees above normal. Southern valleys, which likely woh't receive any rain at all, highs could touch the upper 60s. 

Areas along and north of Route 2 will probably have less than a tenth of an inch of rain. Maybe a touch more near Jay Peak.  No rain is expected in central and southern Vermont, just clouds. 

WEDNESDAY

After another balmy morning, the day will turn out partly to mostly sunny and warm. Very warm. Maybe record warm. This morning's forecast has a predicted high of 73 which would tie the record high for the date. 

The National Weather Service has Montpelier reaching 74 degrees. Their record high tomorrow is 72 degrees. The forecast high in St. Johnsbury is 72, close to the record high of 73. 

Enjoy it, as Wednesday will likely be the warmest day until next spring. 

THURSDAY

A weather front will approach us from the west, a little earlier in the day than first thought. Which means the rain will arrive earlier than first thought. Light rain will move into western Vermont by early to mid morning and spread into the rest of the state by noon, give or take. 

Given how dry it has been, we need a soaker. Unfortunately, this will not be a soaker. Just light rain. Most of us will just receive 0.1 to 0.25 of rain, maybe a little less than in southeastern Vermont.  It won't be enough to ease our dry conditions, but we'll take anything we can get. 

FRIDAY: 

The front will have gone by to our east, but an upper level trough of low pressure will linger overhead.. That means we'll have lots  of clouds and a chance of showers. Cooler air will stay bottled up to our northwest for one more day, so we'll see some mild low 60s for highs despite the clouds. 

SATURDAY

A couple days ago, we hoped a storm would form along the front along the East Coast, then curl northwestward toward New England, drenching Vermont in a soaking rain. 

So much for that idea. The storm will form, but will stay far enough away so that we won't see a soaking rain. Maybe some showers.  It'll be a little cooler but still not bad, with highs in the 50s. 

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

Sunday is several days away, so we can't be too confident about the forecast. But for now, it's looking partly sunny and seasonably cool. There are more chances of rain next week. 

Warm Start To November, Needed Rain (Hopefully!) Looms

The now leafless Fairfield Hill in St. Albans, yesterday
as a warm sun sets early now that Daylight Savings
 Time is over. 

 Boy, Sunday was gorgeous, especially for the beginning of November.  

It was wall-to-wall sunshine with temperatures rising well into the 50s. Light winds, too. 

This whole week will be mild for November, with changes coming. The long dry spell is on its last legs.  Maybe some rain in the far north later Tuesday, then maybe some better rains statewide Thursday. 

Here are the details, as we always do them. 

TODAY

We seared the day balmy, especially in the Champlain Valley, where dawn temperatures were around 50 degrees. East of the Green Mountains, it was in the 30s at dawn, normal for this time of year. 

By afternoon, temperatures will converge statewide on the low 60s. Maybe even mid-60s in the warmest valleys, especially south.  For comparison, normal highs this time of year are near 50 degrees. So enjoy the warmth. 

TUESDAY

It'll be a cloudier day overall, especially in the northern half of Vermont. Light rain will start to move into northern Vermont during the afternoon. Once again, it won't amount to much. But by the time it ends at night, areas north of Route 2 will have less than a tenth of an inch of rain. Maybe a little more than that in the far northern Champlain Valley. 

Southern Vermont will have nothing. 

Temperatures will be warm again, with highs near 60 degrees.

WEDNESDAY

This will be a pretty spectacular day for November. Sunshine should prevail, with highs flirting with 70 degrees. Record highs that day are in the low 70s, so we'll be close. 

THURSDAY

This could be the day it rains. Really rains. I mean, not all that much rain, but something that should get us wet for a change.  It'll be warm for the season again, with highs in the low 60s. Rain should continue into the night. 

FRIDAY-SUNDAY

Another follow-up storm looks like it might form along the coast, which would keep the rain going, especially Saturday, The rain could linger into Sunday. We don't know how much rain we'll get, but there's the potential for more than inch. So stay tuned! 

Vermont Weather Flipping To Milder As We Switch Into November

A cold look to the atmosphere in St. Albans, Vermont as
October closed. November will open with much
milder weather and eventually, chances of rain

 I'm getting a late start today, sorry about that!  

October went out yesterday true to form with skies that were somewhat cloudier than forecast and temperatures that stayed cool.  The high in Burlington yesterday was only 48 degrees. I noticed in places like Eden, Vermont, mid-afternoon temperatures were only 39 degrees. 

A fitting end to one of the coldest Octobers in recent years. I'll have more on that in another post later today or tomorrow. 

We started the day in the low to mid 20s again today, but chilly October is over, in favor of mild November, at least for now. 

This week, for a change, is going to warmer than normal. Probably not record breaking warm, but still, pleasant for November. 

On top of that, our long dry spell looks like it will finally end toward the end of the week. It's still unclear how much rain will fall, but if we're lucky, it could be substantial. We're also into the season of snow, but so far, 

Let's get into the dailies

REST OF TODAY

 Gorgeous! Wall to wall sunshine and highs well into the 50s. Enjoy!

MONDAY

Another beautiful day for November. Partly sunny, with highs in the low 60s. For comparisons, highs this time of year are normally near 50 degrees. 

TUESDAY

More clouds than Monday, especially north, but some sun will filter through at times.  It'll be mild again, with highs up near 60 degrees.

Some showers might come through northern Vermont in the afternoon and evening, but, like the past few episodes, amounts will be very light. If it rains at all, it will amount to only a few hundredth of an inch of rain. 

WEDNESDAY

At this point, it's look partly sunny and balmy. Highs should reach well into the 60s to near 70 degrees.  This might actually threaten sone record highs. We'll need to see any adjustments in the forecast either way to see whether that will happen or not. 

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

There's a lot of questions as to when rain will arrive and how much.  We might eke out another dry day, but we're not sure yet. There seem to be a  better chance of rain Thursday night. We don't know yet how long the rain will last. 

But it could go into the weekend. It will probably turn colder by then, However, the coldest air will stay far to our north, so it don't look for any low elevation snowstorms just yet. 

Back To The Constant Sunshine In Vermont After Monday Clouds

It actually rained a little in St. Albans, Vermont 
Monday. Just a little. But it's back to the dry weather 
through next weekend. Perhaps a few light rain
showers Thursday night north, but that's it. 

 If you are somehow sick of sunshine, you must have enjoyed yesterday, unless you are in southern Vermont, where the sun stayed out for at least a decent part of the day. 

Far northern Vermont actually had a little rain during the day. Enough to dampen the ground. 

Here in St. Albans, we actually measured 0.03 inches of rain. Burlington had a trace - nothing measurable - so officially, the dry spell there goes on. 

This morning, we were back to the same routine. As dawn broke, skies were clear, temperatures statewide were below freezing.  

This clear sky trend will continue for the next few days, at least generally. But signs are pointing toward this sunny stretch ending, eventually. 

TODAY

As expected, the sun will stay out all day under blue skies. It'll be chilly, with temperatures holding the 40s. A steady north breeze will make it feel even chillier. Super dry air will make things feel especially crisp. 

WEDNESDAY

We're sticking with the forecast for a frigid start to the day, with lows across Vermont still expected to be mostly between 18 to 25 degrees. But the sunshine will draw afternoon temperatures back into the comfortable 50s. 

It might not be completely sunny. A weak disturbance looks like it might thrown some high clouds our way. Still absolutely no rain, though. 

THURSDAY

Another chilly start, another sunny day. Southwest winds will bring temperatures up to the low and mid 60s. This is a day we might have to really watch the fire danger. The dry spell, and all the fallen leaves, have raised the fire danger. The winds could spread any fires that start, so be particular careful. 

The next cold front is scheduled to come through Thursday night. It'll be very similar to yesterday's. Maybe, just maybe it'll have a tiny bit more oomph to it. That means northern parts of the state could eg a few paltry hundredths of an inch of rain. Probably nothing further south. 

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

The next big, fat high pressure system comes in. As a sign that this pattern might eventually break down, this big, fat high pressure system might not be quite as big, quite as fat as the last few. Still, it will ensure more sunny skies.

It'll be a little cooler, but perhaps not as cool as today. We'll be back to subfreezing mornings and highs in the 50s. Same conditions on Saturday. Sunday could be a little warmer, with readings maybe in the upper 50s. 

NEXT WEEK

At first, we might be in a battle zone between a last big, fat high pressure from Canada and a storm coming up from the southwest. This would be our best chance of rain since mid-month. It won't be huge, and there's still a chance the high pressure could deflect the storm to our south. So stay tuned.

If that misses us, we have a shot at another rain late in the week.  

Another Frosty Vermont Morning In Spots, Nice Weather To Be Followed by Nor'easter Effects, How Much Rain?

Yesterday, a beautiful Wednesday in Vermont, showed that
fall foliage isn't that far along yet, as this view from a 
high spot in Richmond shows. If we get wind and rain
from the weekend nor'easter, it won't wreck this year's
foliage season because things aren't 
that far long yet. 

 As expected, it was another chilly September morning today, but very typical for the season. 

Most of Vermont was in the mid-30s at dawn, with a few spots in the low 30s. The Champlain Valley was closer to 40 degrees. Southern Vermont was chillier than yesterday. Bennington was down to 33 degrees.

As always, there was a lot of fog in the valleys, which will burn off this morning. Chances are it will be gone by the time you read this. This will yield another beautiful autumn day with lots of sunshine and highs well into the 60s. 

FRIDAY

The day will dawn cool again, but probably not quite as cool as this morning. So the chances of frost are lower, but there might be a spot or two in the coldest areas. The early morning fog will be back, too. It'll be another sunny, beautiful day, Some high clouds will come in especially south. That'll be the first sign of the nor'easter in Vermont

NOR'EASTER WEEKEND

We have an overall sense of what this nor'easter will do, but the picky details of how that will affect us in Vermont is still an open question. The storm was just developing off the North Carolina coast this morning and will slowly head north while strengthening. It should be somewhere a little south or east of the New England Saturday. 

After that, it might loop a little westward while starting to weaken. By early next week the nor'easter will e falling apart while heading out to sea.

We're still looking at a lot of coastal erosion and flooding from Virginia to New England.  Also southeastern New England is under a high wind watch for those strong nor'easter winds that were expected.

Unless you like huge, beach chewing storms, stay away from the immediate East Coast over the next few days. 

Vermont Effects

It now looks like the nor'easter will send bands of rain westward into Vermont. But those rain bands will run into dry air and weaken as they do so. 

We still don't know how much rain will make it into the Green Mountain State. It's beginning to look like most, but maybe not all of the state will see at least a little rain, and it might be a soaker for the far southeast. 

Maybe. 

According to the National Weather Service/South Burlington's forecast discussion, the models are all over the place as to how much rain might fall. 

That discussion highlights the differences in expected rainfall in Vermont among the models.  As of this morning, it could be anywhere between nothing and 0.44 inches in Burlington, In Montpelier, nor'easter rainfall could range anywhere between 0.04 and 0.82. In Springfield, the range is between 0.15 and 1.5 inches. 

On top of that, we can expect more shifts in rainfall projects in the days and hours leading up to this weekend. 

Overall, it looks pretty likely that southeast Vermont will have at least a fairly wet weekend, while anything could  happen in the northwestern half of the state. 

Temperatures this weekend, especially Sunday look questionable, too. Daytime readings could hold in the low to mid 50s in areas that have the steadiest rain. If the clouds are thin and rain-free in the northwest, it could be 70 degrees up there. 

It'll get breezy, too. Nor'easters are obviously windy, and even in the outskirts of the storm it can get breezy. So far, it's looking like winds could gust to over 30 mph in the southern and central Green Mountains. The same might be true in the Champlain Valley. The winds will funnel between the Green Mountains and Adirondacks, which speeds the airflow up. 

Luckily, it's early in the foliage season and the fall colors themselves are running a little late this year. That means this storm with its potential wind and rain won't be a "foliage stripper."  The peak colors coming up in October will still be spectacular, whether or not this storm hits Vermont. 

A Noticeable Step Down Into A Vermont Autumn In The Coming Week

Like most of the landscape in Vermont's Champlain Valley
the big maple and other trees around my St. Albans house
are still green. That might start to change as noticeably
cooler weather settles in tomorrow and 
probably lasts through next week

 Very often, when seasons change, there are steps up or down. Sometimes in the fall, you get a stretch of weather that's relatively stable for a week.  

Then suddenly, it's a few degrees cooler, and that chillier regime holds for a week or so. Then it gets cooler yet. 

It's not an even process. As we know we get some lingering warm spells thrown in. Indian Summer, or just a stretch of warm days with balmy southwest breezes.

I bring this up because we're about to take a step down, further into autumn. 

This deeper dive into autumn won't start until tomorrow. Let's get into the details

TODAY

Still warm, and, truth be told, vaguely humid. Certainly not the humidity we deal with in the summer. Just a hint of moisture in the air that will make you sweaty if you really exert yourself. 

Highs should get into the 70s, but this won't be a late breaking brilliant summer day. Clouds should dominate, though there might be a break or two of sun, especially north. Don't count on it, though. 

 A weak disturbance should set off some rain and showers today, mostly in the southern half of Vermont. There might even be some brief downpours. We were already seeing a few very light showers in central Vermont as of 8 a.m., but the bulk of the rain will hit this afternoon

Rainfall in southern Vermont should come out near a quarter inch, maybe a little more in a few spots. 

The north, especially far northwest should be mostly dry, with rainfall amounts today ranging from nothing to maybe a tenth of an inch. 

FRIDAY

The step down to cooler weather should definitely be noticeable tomorrow. A cold front tonight will sweep in much drier air, leading to a sunny, delightful, slightly cool September day. Highs should reach the 60s for most of us. Maybe some upper 50s in the Northeast Kingdom and near 70 in the warmest banana belt valley towns. 

This will all happen with pleasant northwest breezes and under blue skies, flecked with a few clouds. 

That'll set us up for a cold night. I think the National Weather Service might issue frost advisories again for the Northeast Kingdom and the Adirondacks across the pond in New York. Lows in the cold hollows could easily touch freezing. 

For the rest of us, lows will probably be in 36 to 46 degree range by dawn Saturday, with the warmest readings near Lake Champlain. 

SATURDAY

Even cooler as autumn continues to establish itself. After the chilly morning, highs should only get into the 60s under generally sunny skies. Some clouds might increase later in the day. But all in all, a nice day. 

SUNDAY

This looks like the first cold, raw, damp day of the autumn. That first gloomy, chilly day usually comes about now, so it's right on schedule. A storm sliding by the south will provide more rain to the bottom half of Vermont, not so much to the north. 

Early guess are maybe a tenth of an inch of new rain up by the Canadian order to as much as three quarters to an inch of rain far south. 

Highs should only be near 60. Especially in rainier southern Vermont highs could hold only in the 50s. 

NEXT WEEK

At this point, it looks like another big, fat high pressure system will come down from central Canada and then stall nearby. Early in the week, probably Monday and/or Tuesday morning, we'll need to look at the risk of frost again. Monday will probably be the coolest  day, but it will slowly warm up after that. 

But not much. The step down to autumn weather is complete. Daily highs should be in the 60s Monday through Thursday. In the Northeast Kingdom, there will probably be at least give consecutive mornings, starting Saturday, with lows in the 30s. 

Forecasters are unsure whether the stalled high will keep skies sunny all week, or whether some moisture could work on in from the south with clouds and a risk of light rain. 

KEY MESSAGE 3: Our region should be under the influence of a
seasonably cool high pressure area gradually moving eastward to
start the work week. Temperatures should be about 10 degrees
below normal Monday trending to around normal on Wednesday. With
this pattern and 925 millibar temperatures falling to near the
10th percentile, Tuesday morning should be another frosty one 

for sheltered areas that already saw frost Saturday morning.s 

If Things Work Out, We Could Actually Have A Rather Rainy Week In Vermont. We need It.

Somewhat ominous skies greeted early risers over St.
Albans, Vermont this morning. If forecasts are correct.
we could have a week of badly needed off and on
rain over the next several days. 

We got through another gorgeous Saturday in Vermont, with our blue skies and a few puffy clouds in the skies. I savored the gorgeous end of August weather. 

The signs of autumn keep hitting though. This time of year, some of the leaves on the trees are looking tired and ragged after a long summer of insects, wind, dry spells and hot days. 

Also, with a high temperature of 77 degrees and a low of 50, the average temperature in Burlington Saturday was 63.5 making it coolest day since June 7.

As nice as Saturday was, we could use the rain and the National Weather Service is offering hope for a potentially wet week across Vermont. 

The NWS office in South Burlington has at least a chance of showers each day today through next Saturday, except maybe tomorrow.

 It's unclear how much rain we'll actually get. We could use a lot of rain, and we might get that. Then again, at least parts of Vermont might not get all that much. It all depends on the path of several weather disturbances this week zipping northwest to southeast across New England and the Mid-Atlantic states.

Current forecasts give a half inch to an inch of rain today through Wednesday morning across most of the Green Mountain State, with more coming after that. NOAA has Vermont receiving one to two inches of rain over the next seven days. 

Those predictions often shift dramatically, so we can't guarantee we'll actually get that much rain. 

If this forecast plays out, it could blunt a developing drought in  northern Vermont and give a much needed rain in southern Vermont, which is still drought-free, for now. 

Let's get into the detailed forecast like we do almost every day. 

TODAY

A  few showers have already skittered across northern Vermont this morning and more is on the way. I don't think today will be as decent a day as first thought especially in northern Vermont. There's a chance of showers almost everywhere in Vermont. Showers and maybe a rumble or two of thunder are more likely in northern Vermont. 

The forecast for today has become a little more dismal because moisture in the atmosphere all the way from the Pacific Ocean has made it to an area just south of an approaching cold front in Quebec.  Highs today will reach the 70s.

Not everybody in the north will get wet, but many areas will. The showers will taper off after sunset as the cold front slips quietly south through Vermont. 

MONDAY

The front should sag south and west of Vermont and oriented in a northwest to southeast orientation. The front should still be far enough south and west so that we should be out of the rain. The sun should come out, especially in central and northern Vermont. We should see highs in the 70s again. 

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY

The front to out south and west will mark the battle line between coolish air in Quebec and horribly humid and very warm air in the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States. The cool-ish air should win out here in Vermont, though it won't exactly be cold. Daily highs should be in the 70s, close to normal for this time of year.

The front will slowly approach Vermont. Nobody is really sure how fast it will come at us. Meanwhile, disturbances will ride northwest to southeast along the front, carrying batches of rain on the north side of the front, and thunderstorms to the south. 

The position of the front will dictate where and when it rains in Vermont and how much. It's too soon to pick out exactly how this will play out. However, so far at least, it looks like the front will stay near or southwest of Vermont. 

That means potential severe thunderstorms should stay mostly in the Ohio Valley and in the Mid-Atlantic states.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND

Another front from the west should begin to sweep everything to the east. As it does so, we'll probably keep up with the rain and showers. 

I'm not sure how fast this thing will clear Vermont, so showers could continue Friday and maybe into Saturday. 

Will Weather Pattern Adjustment Might Eventually Soak Vermont. Maybe

National Weather Service has decent rains over much of
New England including Vermont over the next seven 
days. Purple shading is at least 1.5 inches of rain.
If this forecast materializes, almost all of that
rain would fall between Tuesday and Thursday.
Forecast is subject to big changes, though. It's 
possible we'll end up missing out again. 

As we enjoy our beautiful summer weekend, our gardens are getting a little fed up with all this sunshine. 

It's getting drier and drier out there. No drought to report out there yet. But we could be heading in that direction if widespread rain doesn't arrive soon. 

The ongoing dry weather is well-timed, since it's hitting on the weekend. Comfortable nights, warm summer day on Saturdays and Sundays during Vermont's short summers are precious. So let's enjoy it. 

A little shift is coming up in the weather pattern that could, perhaps, give Vermont a good soaking during the work week. 

For the past couple weeks, a heat dome was positioned over the Rockies and Plains states. The corresponding dip in the jet stream sent quick storms racing across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States, causing outbreaks of severe weather in those places. 

Vermont would get some rain out of these, but it was generally hit or miss. We'd also get some severe weather, but not nearly to the extent as places south and west of here. 

Now, there's a subtle shift setting up. The heat dome in the Rockies is nudging just a bit further west. So is the base of the jet stream dip in the East. At first, we'll just have more of the same, with a batch of severe weather in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Monday and in the Mid-Atlantic states Tuesday. 

But with the base of the jet stream dip a tiny bit to our west, there's an opportunity for the next weather system to slow down and sit near us for a few days next week.  That could bring a statewide, soaking rain.  

The computer forecasting models are still disagreeing on how much things will slow down and how much rain might fall. We might still only receive a little rain, as the moisture could slip off the East Coast before ever making it to Vermont.    

We have been cheated out of a soaking rain frequently in the past couple weeks, so that dry scenario is definitely possible.  But some other  forecasts give us an inch or two.

There's also a slight chance there could be too much of a good thing. If it rains too hard we could see some flooding. The risk of that happening so far looks to be on the low side, but it bears watching, just in case. 

The first chances of showers or thunderstorms would arrive Monday. But those look to be hit and miss, probably mostly miss, so there wouldn't be too much rain then. 

The bulk of the showers and storms would come through Tuesday and Wednesday, as it looks now .

We'll obviously update you as the possible rainstorms draw nearer next wee 

Vermont Weather Week Ahead: Somewhat Encouraging For Drought Relief

For most of Vermont, today is dawning as another dreary one, as the sky is having a lot of trouble clearing out. 

A carpet of leaves beneath a sugar maple in St. Albans
Vermont during yesterday's overcast. We're rapidly
getting into stick season. The hope is November will
be wet, and there are chances of some storms, 

We've gotten into that time of year in which it doesn't get sunny too easily, even if there's high pressure nearby. 

We're actually going through a typical November/December type thing now, in which moisture from the Great Lakes, cold air aloft and lingering moisture keep us cloudy. 

Going into this week, it looks like an inversion might set up, meaning we'll have a layer of warm air a few thousand feet up.

That kind of set up also tends to keep thins pretty overcast. The heat from the sun when it is high and strong in the late spring and summer tends to mix the air and get rid of inversions. Which clears the sky. '

The low sun angle this time of year doesn't really have the power to do that.  WHile there is a chance we might clear out at times Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, don't count on it. Especially in northern valleys.

In a way, this is good, because the overcast doesn't allow us to dry out as much as a sunny, unseasonably warm day would.  With our ongoing drought, we don't need things to get worse. 

RAIN CHANCES

What we really need is a series of nice soaking rains like we had this past week. We do have an uncertain shot of something like that toward the end of the upcoming week. And extended forecasts are slightly optimistic on precipitation chances.

The late week shot at rain would come from a potential nor'easter. As always, whether we in Vermont get some decent rains depends on the track of the storm. Too far offshore, and we get nothing spectacular. 

A track that hugs the coast or goes a little inland would be wonderful. And wet.

There's even a chance that horrible Hurricane Melissa would do some good after causing a lot of pain and suffering in the Caribbean.  By the end of the week. Melissa is expected to be out in the Atlantic Ocean, far off the East Coast, zipping northward and weakening. 

There is a chance that the nor'easter could syphon some moisture extra
off of Melissa, and that would enhance the rains in New England. That scenario is far, far from a slam dunk, but it would be nice. 

After our hoped for late week or weekend nor'easter, we want to look for even more rain. We've kept telling you it would take a long time to dig ourselves out of the drought, and that's still so true. Yeah, it might seem damp to you outside now, but we need a lot of rain to really soak into the ground and recharge aquifers and such. 

Extended forecasts are not as reliable, and much more broad brush than the predictions for the next few days. The long range forecasts out this weekend do give us some more hope for more rain. 

The six to ten day outlook, which runs from Halloween to November 4, leans toward above normal precipitation, which makes sense, considering there might be a coastal storm around then. 

The 8 to 14 day outlook, which goes from November 2 to  9, is a tossup, giving us near normal precipitation, with below normal temperatures. Maybe the first snows of the season? We shall see! 

There's also a NOAA three to four week outlook, which takes us well into mid-November. That forecast slightly favors above normal precipitation in northern New England,  but it's not a perfect setup for big soakers. 

A decent share of the computer models in that three to four week range  place a dip in the jet stream somewhere near or over Quebec.  That's not ideal, as it could steer the wettest storms off to our south and east.

However, even if the three to four week forecast is correct, the location and the strength of that dip in the jet stream would vary.   Exactly where it sets up, if it sets up, and how it interacts with other weather systems would determine how much and what kind of precipitation we get.

Note I said what kind. Once we get into November, all bets are off. We could get rain, snow, ice, a mix, you name it.  

At least it's beginning to appear we're escaping that horrible weather pattern we had in August, September and much of October in which warm, arid, sunny high pressure systems would stall over us for weeks at a time. 

This blog thingy might, for a change, frequently mention oncoming inclement weather.  For once, if we get lucky, Vermonters might end up embracing our famously bad November weather. 

They've Already Canceled Our Next Shot At Vermont Rain

Read it and weep. Rainfall prediction map for the
next 7 days has nothing in and around Vermont. 
Meanwhile, torrential rain falls on the fishes
off the East Coast, and the Midwest gets
a good soaking. None of that is heading
in our direction, unfortunately. 

As expected, nothing more than sprinkles fell on a few spots last night, and many of us stayed completely rain free. One of the worst droughts in Vermont history continued to deepen. 

Some forecasts had a chance of isolated showers today, but that doesn't look like it's going to happen. Worse, our next chance at any rain, which was hoped for toward the end of this week, is now evaporating. 

It seems like this drought is never going away. 

Things are getting ridiculous. I was digging in a client's garden yesterday. Digging down a foot, I was still getting dust. One of my spruce trees has some wilted needles. I've never seen anything like that before. 

The forest fire danger in Vermont remains high and will stay that way for at least the next week. 

The Lake Champlain lake level as of yesterday was 93.26 feet.  That's down a whopping five feet since early June.

The current take level isn't actually the lowest it's ever been this time of year, but it's close. (It was at 92.71 feet in mid-September, 1941). Lake Champlain water there continues to slowly recede and is now within shouting distance of its all time lowest level, 92.13 on November 23, 1908.

Lake Champlain normally reaches its lowest level in late autumn. So if this drought continues, we could approach or break the record for its lowest level.   As it is, boaters have been hitting shoals and reefs that are now much closer to the water's surface than they once were.

Both 1908 and 1941 were among Burlington's top five driest years on record, so the low lake levels then aren't surprising. 

I doubt this year will be among the top driest ones because the first half of 2025 was relatively wet. Burlington has had 25.1 inches of rain so far this year. If we get about an inch and a half or more of rain by New Year's Eve, it won't be one of the driest years. 

We should manage that amount of rain by then. Gawd, I hope so. 

THE FORECAST

None of that rain is coming anytime soon. Strong  high pressure is coming in now to replace the other strong high pressure that kept us dry last week. This new high pressure will pretty much stall over us most of this week. 

This one is warmer than the last, so we'll have a bit of a summer redux most of this week.  The dry weather system that went though early this morning was a cold front of sorts, so today and tomorrow will have similar weather to what we've been having. That means highs in the low to mid 70s, lows in the 40s to low 50s. 

Tuesday through Thursday will turn into a bit of a summer redux. Many of us will see highs poke up to near 80.  It's dry out there, and that could lead to surprisingly warm afternoons. I wouldn't be surprised if a couple of those days reach the mid-80s. 

A stalled storm near the Mid-Atlantic coast could end up throwing some high clouds our way, which might limit high temperatures a little. But alas, that storm won't send any rain clouds our way, either. 

It had been hoped the next cold front around this coming Friday would come in from the west. That would have allowed some moisture to flow up from the Gulf and give us a little rain. Nobody anticipated much, but a little bit might have been nice.

Now, it's appearing more likely that another mostly dry cold front will come in from the north instead. That means we'd get nothing more than scattered sprinkles on Friday. .This is five days away, so things could turn wetter again, but I'm doubting it at the moment. 

All we'll get out of this is another strong, slow moving high pressure system. The late week one will be a somewhat colder one.  It will be hitting in the second half of September after all. So by Friday night, and maybe Saturday night, we'll have to be on the lookout for scattered frost. 

I'll update that when we get closer to the event. 

Longer range forecasts have gotten slightly more encouraging, but not encouraging enough. Long range forecasts for the roughly last ten days of the month indicate near normal precipitation, which is better than nothing. 

Even longer range forecasts, which admittedly are not always that accurate, give us equal chances of above or below normal precipitation into the first half of October.  However, the overall weather pattern does favor a warmer and drier than average autumn for us.

Will It Actually Rain Sunday/Monday In Vermont? Some Hope, But....

Vermont lilac trees and bushes have had a rough time this
year. Early season wetness allowed a fungus to take hold
in the leaves. Then the drought hit. The fungus, 
combined with the dryness is making lilac leaves 
turn brown and fall off prematurely, like on this
lilac in my St. Albans, Vermont yard. The affected
lilacbushes should come back and bloom
just fine next spring.  

At least the weather is nice. Even as our gardens, crops and even trees shrivel up from lack of rain. 

We had another gorgeous day in Vermont Thursday and another perfect late summer day has gotten underway this morning.  

We can actually partly credit Hurricane Erin for the fantastic weather. 

Erin is racing away from the East Coast after causing flooding and scary waves along the shoreline. The atmosphere always tries to balance itself. 

When there's a hurricane off the East Coast with its low pressure, there's often high pressure off to its west, southwest or northwest to compensate. 

This happens with almost every hurricane or tropical storm.   Long time Vermonters might remember the day after Hurricane Irene in 20111 devastated the state with some of the worst flooding in our history. The day after the flood was absolutely gorgeous as the remnants of Irene took off to the Northeast. 

The same thing sort of thing is going on today with Erin far offshore.  Our compensating high pressure is basically right overhead today. This time, of course, we didn't have to endure anything worse than deepening drought after Hurricane Erin passed by far, far to our southeast. 

That high pressure hanging around today, so we have another great one with sunshine and low humidity.  It will be a little warmer than yesterday with many of us getting into the low 80s. 

It'll be even warmer Saturday as it gets into the 80s.  Which will be one last summer day, at least for awhile.

The fire danger is high in Vermont today, and could get even worse tomorrow. That's because the humidity will stay low, and breezes will pick up, especially in the Champlain Valley.   The wind could fan any flames that start in the dry woods and fields around Vermont.

So be careful out there! 

TINY BIT OF DROUGHT RELIEF?

Those breezes on Saturday are the first sign that we might actually get some rain here in Vermont.  The wind will be generated by an approaching cold front and its band of showers.

Don't get too excited, as I highly doubt whatever we end up getting will end our building drought. But it might  briefly stop it from getting worse. At least this cold front will probably drop some rain. 

Meteorologists still think a fairly slow moving cold front will come through Monday, with plenty of showers along and ahead of it later Sunday through Monday. At least that's the hope. 

I'm not wowed by the amount of rain forecast. The National Weather Service this morning is giving us a 50/50 shot at getting about a half inch of rain.   Since showers and thunderstorms will be involved, some areas will get bonus downpours with over an inch of rain, while other unlucky places get very little. 

That kind of rainfall would mean you won't have to water your garden for a couple days, and will extend a lifeline to some parched crops across Vermont and the rest of northern New England. 

After that, it's back to mostly dry weather for quite awhile. Starting next Tuesday,  we'll get into a long period of airflow from the northwest.  That means only light showers from time to time as moisture-starved disturbance zip on through from dry central Canada. It'll stay on the cool side, too.

There are some uncertain signs that a strong ridge of high pressure will set up camp over the northeastern U.S. and southeast Canada as we get into early September.

If that happens, it won't help the situation. It will just get warmer, but the high pressure would deflect any wet storms away from us.  The drought would live on under this scenario,

The bottom line: The expected rain later Sunday and Monday would just be a brief interruption to a worsening drought.  Almost makes you wish a tropical storm would come through and really wet us down.  But, I guess we have to be careful about what we wish for. 

Friday Was The Ultimate Perfect Vermont Summer Day. Now, Big Changes Are Afoot

What a day Friday was in Vermont! Deep blue skies,
hills glowing green in the sun. It was the pick of
the summer. But changes are afoot, and we
have some pre-autumn type weather heading
our way after a very warm Saturday. 

 Yes, we desperate need the rain, but you have to admit, Friday's weather was perfect. 

Maybe the pick of the summer.  

The temperature/humidity combo was spot on. Most of us got into the low 80s during the afternoon, so it was a good beach day. It was also superb for any other activity.   The humidity was rock bottom low, so exerting yourself with a hike or a spin on the bike didn't kill you. 

For once, there was no wildlife smoke in the air, so the sky was that deep, deep blue that soothes the soul.  It's rare to have a cloudless sky like this in August. Usually, there might be at least a few puffy clouds out there. 

Likewise, the Green Mountains glowed a deep green for a change, instead of being half or fully obscured by haze and smoke. f your hike took to the mountain summits you could see practically forever. 

If you were on the lake, it was also stupendous, though maybe winds were a bit light for the sailboats.

In other words, Friday was the reason we live in Vermont. 

TODAY

We've left the perfection zone, but if you enjoy summer, you've at least got today to enjoy. Beyond that, we'll see. 

Last night was pretty comfortable for sleeping, as we all started the day with temperatures in the 50s. You'll  notice it heating up pretty quickly this morning. All of us will get well into the 80s, with a few warmer valleys hitting 90 one more time.  There should be plenty of sun today, though a few clouds might come in during the afternoon. 

SUNDAY

This will be our big transition day into what I might call pre-fall, or as I explained the other day, Fair Weather, the kind of not really warm, not really chilly days we have in late August when county fairs are around. 

The cold front will be a little  more like  the kind you see in the autumn, not summer. Summertime cold front come through in pieces, little boundaries with progressively, and slightly cooler and less humid air and a gradual wind shift over many hours.  

Autumn and winter cold fronts come through in one fell swoop. Although Sunday's front won't be "clean" like that - it will still be a bit diffuse - the  push of colder air will be abrupt and noticeable. 

Temperatures will probably actually fall during Sunday afternoon, depending on the timing of the cold front. By evening, you might be reaching for a hoodie or sweater. 

I'm still really unimpressed with the amount of rain that will accompany the cold front. Current forecasts have us getting maybe a tenth of an inch, with a few lucky spots maybe seeing a quarter inch. 

By Monday morning, temperatures  should be down in the 40s, with highs only reaching about 70 by afternoon. 

The cool weather continues most of the week, but it should start to warm up temporarily toward the end of the week. 

If you are reaching for hopes of rain, there might be something coming through Tuesday night and Wednesday, but don't count on it. 

A few forecast models dump an inch of rain on us, which would be great, but those models are in the minority.  Most of them give us just a little rain, and some of them nothing at all.  Stay tuned on that, but for now, I'm leaning toward mostly dry weather and sadly, a worsening drought. 

Since I'm an eternal pessimist, don't count on me being right, though. 

Smoke, Unhealthy Air, Uncertain Forecast, Then Heat, Then Cold Keeps Vermonters On Toes

Hazy skies near sunset last evening as viewed from
St. Albans, Vermont as wildfire smoke started
making another unwelcome visit.. An air quality
alert is in effect for most of Vermont again today 

 The good news is yesterdays' cold front kept some pretty incredible heat out of Vermont. Temperatures of between 95 and 100 degrees got as far north as Massachusetts Thursday. 

Some places, like Baltimore, Maryland (102 de
grees), and Newark and Toms River, New Jersey (both 100 degrees) set record highs for the date. 

High temperatures in Vermont, meanwhile, held mostly near 80 degrees north and to around 90 south, in places like Springfield. 

True, it was awfully humid Thursday. You'd think we'd get some rain. But not really, 

The timing of the front during the morning and early afternoon kept most of us from getting a drenching. 

My area around St. Albans did better with the rain than almost anyone else. I got an unofficial 0.60 inches, because at least three clusters of brief downpours got me. Most places only received one brief shot at rain with the cold front and that's it.  Amounts were a quarter inch or less. Some places in southern Vermont got virtually nothing. 

I notice the forest fire in Fair Haven, Vermont was still burning and slowly spreading as of yesterday in nearly rainless Rutland County. 

SMOKE ATTACK, AGAIN

Somewhat cooler and less humid air arrived in Vermont  last evening. But it came at a price: Smoky air has hit once again. From our friends in Canada, 

Atmospheric conditions unexpectedly forced some of the smoke that was aloft to the ground.  At around 7 arm, this morning, an air quality alert was hastily issued for most of Vermont and it remains in effect until 11 p.m, tonight 

The smoke  mixed with fog to create a smoggy Vermont morning. Some monitoring stations had an air quality index as low as 170. Anything under 150 is unhealthy for everyone, not just people who have pre-existing conditions.  

The fog is burning off this morning. The smoke will slowly thin just a bit as the day wears on but definitely not entirely go away,   

Other than the smoke and haze, we should still eke out a decent Saturday with sunshine filtered by the haze and highs in the 80s. The humidity should stay moderate.

SUNDAY QUESTIONS

I give up on forecasting tomorrow's weather, since the computer generated stuff is so contradictory. The model do not at all have a good handle on where the most rain will set up. And how much will fall.

Suffice it to say it might rain, it might not. 

It does look like southern Vermont could get a period of decent rain in the morning especially. It's still very hard to know how much rain will fall and how far north it will come in Vermont. It''s possible places near the Canadian border get nothing,

But it's all a crap shoot.  Don't be surprised if it rains, don't be surprised if it doesn't. Just be aware it might. 

During the afternoon, there could be enough instability to trigger some more scattered storms, as the humidity will be going up

HOT TO COOL

The increasing humidity Sunday will be a sign of one last gasp of hot, muggy air before the well-advertised weather pattern change arrives.

We'll make a run at 90 degrees again Monday, which might well be the last such hot day for a long while. Depending on how the weather pattern in mid to late August sugars off, it could be the last 90 degree day of 2025. No promises, though. 

The change will start Tuesday with a series of cold fronts that will keep coming through on Wednesday.. It should gradually cool down during the time frame, with highs maybe in the 80s Tuesday, near 80s Wednesday and then down in the 70s by Thursday,

At this point, anyway, the fronts don't look like they'll have much oomph to them, so we're not expecting much rain from them.

This will be all thanks to chilly high pressure from Canada. It will stay cool for several days given how slowly that high will be moving. Current projects have in Canada just north of North Dakota Wednesday, and it'll only make it to about Lake Michigan by Saturday.

That will keep us in cool, dry northwest winds.  We'll have to see, but it might also keep us in the smoke, since some of the air will be coming from the zone in central Canada that is still burning with widespread forest fires. 

Long range forecasts (grain of salt type things) indicate something of a warmup again starting again a week from tomorrow, but it's unclear how warm it will get or how long it would last.  

Record Vermont Heat Today Then A Long Chilly Period. Some Of Us To Get Needed Soaking?

Despite very warm, very dry weather, irises in my
garden seemed to dance in the sun Wednesday.

 Some changes have come into the Vermont weather forecast for this weekend and beyond. If those changes come to fruition, some (but probably not all) of us will get a needed soaking. 

First we have to get through today. The forecast is the same as it has been for today, hot and arid, with record high temperatures. 

Don't be fool by the relatively cool air this morning. This dry air heats up fast in the sun, and given that the atmosphere is primed for heat, the records should shatter this afternoon. 

Burlington is going with an expected high today of 94 degrees, which would break the old record of 90 set in 2011 and 2013.  I'm not sure, but I think that 94 sounds a little too bullish. Even so, I'm sure we'll get past 90 in Burlington. And that 94 is NOT out of the question. 

Today's record high for the date in Montpelier is 88 degrees and in St. Johnsbury, it's 91.  Those record highs definitely have a risk of being broken today.  

If you like heat, today and most of tomorrow are your last shot at it for awhile. Also, some changes in the forecast mean the hot spell might end with some decent rains - in some areas at least.

THE COLD FRONT

Earlier in the week, the cold front expected to come through later Friday looked like it would be another moisture-starved system, with just paltry, scattered rains with it. 

Now, at least from the Green Mountains eastward, the front looks like it might pack a fairly wet punch, which is good news. 

More moisture than previously expected will pool ahead of this front Friday, which will turn the day uncomfortably warm and humid.

Showers and thunderstorms will break out in the afternoon.  It doesn't look like any of the storms will be severe, but some of them will have decent downpours with them.  Meanwhile, an upper level low looks like it will dive southward with the cold front.

This will promote a lot of lift in the atmosphere from the Green Mountains east through the Connecticut Valley and on into parched New Hampshire and Maine.  Nearly an inch of rain or more, even, could come down Friday night east of the Greens, and probably in the southern third of Vermont.

At this point northwestern Vermont, roughly along a line from Middlebury to Jay Peak, will miss out of the needed rain unfortunately. Those areas will get some rain,  but it will only be less than a half inch. Possibly a quarter inch or a little less in some spots. So a little rain, but not the soaking we'll need.

There's always a chance the bullseye for the heaviest rain could shift westward a little bit, so that's something to at least wish for 

CHILLY AND MAYBE WET

We know it will actually be on the chilly side for this time of year, starting abruptly on Saturday, and probably continuing through next week. 

Given the heat we'll have for the next couple of days, the chill will seem like a shock to the system. Highs Saturday will only be in the 60s west and maybe just upper 50s east. Some rain will continue mostly in the southeastern half of the state on Saturday, but it won't amount to much.

It stays cooler than average for the season all of next week, but the wild card is rain chances.

We'll still need a soaking, especially northwest, but we don't know if that's in the cards.  Some computer models suggest just light showers off and on through the week.  Some others pull a lot of Atlantic moisture in from an offshore storm system and swing it over us with a soaker. 

The best chances of that happening are unfortunately in eastern, not northwestern Vermont. But these are pretty long range forecasts, and can change.