Record Vermont Heat Today Then A Long Chilly Period. Some Of Us To Get Needed Soaking?

Despite very warm, very dry weather, irises in my
garden seemed to dance in the sun Wednesday.

 Some changes have come into the Vermont weather forecast for this weekend and beyond. If those changes come to fruition, some (but probably not all) of us will get a needed soaking. 

First we have to get through today. The forecast is the same as it has been for today, hot and arid, with record high temperatures. 

Don't be fool by the relatively cool air this morning. This dry air heats up fast in the sun, and given that the atmosphere is primed for heat, the records should shatter this afternoon. 

Burlington is going with an expected high today of 94 degrees, which would break the old record of 90 set in 2011 and 2013.  I'm not sure, but I think that 94 sounds a little too bullish. Even so, I'm sure we'll get past 90 in Burlington. And that 94 is NOT out of the question. 

Today's record high for the date in Montpelier is 88 degrees and in St. Johnsbury, it's 91.  Those record highs definitely have a risk of being broken today.  

If you like heat, today and most of tomorrow are your last shot at it for awhile. Also, some changes in the forecast mean the hot spell might end with some decent rains - in some areas at least.

THE COLD FRONT

Earlier in the week, the cold front expected to come through later Friday looked like it would be another moisture-starved system, with just paltry, scattered rains with it. 

Now, at least from the Green Mountains eastward, the front looks like it might pack a fairly wet punch, which is good news. 

More moisture than previously expected will pool ahead of this front Friday, which will turn the day uncomfortably warm and humid.

Showers and thunderstorms will break out in the afternoon.  It doesn't look like any of the storms will be severe, but some of them will have decent downpours with them.  Meanwhile, an upper level low looks like it will dive southward with the cold front.

This will promote a lot of lift in the atmosphere from the Green Mountains east through the Connecticut Valley and on into parched New Hampshire and Maine.  Nearly an inch of rain or more, even, could come down Friday night east of the Greens, and probably in the southern third of Vermont.

At this point northwestern Vermont, roughly along a line from Middlebury to Jay Peak, will miss out of the needed rain unfortunately. Those areas will get some rain,  but it will only be less than a half inch. Possibly a quarter inch or a little less in some spots. So a little rain, but not the soaking we'll need.

There's always a chance the bullseye for the heaviest rain could shift westward a little bit, so that's something to at least wish for 

CHILLY AND MAYBE WET

We know it will actually be on the chilly side for this time of year, starting abruptly on Saturday, and probably continuing through next week. 

Given the heat we'll have for the next couple of days, the chill will seem like a shock to the system. Highs Saturday will only be in the 60s west and maybe just upper 50s east. Some rain will continue mostly in the southeastern half of the state on Saturday, but it won't amount to much.

It stays cooler than average for the season all of next week, but the wild card is rain chances.

We'll still need a soaking, especially northwest, but we don't know if that's in the cards.  Some computer models suggest just light showers off and on through the week.  Some others pull a lot of Atlantic moisture in from an offshore storm system and swing it over us with a soaker. 

The best chances of that happening are unfortunately in eastern, not northwestern Vermont. But these are pretty long range forecasts, and can change.