Watching Vermont Storms/Heavy Rain/Flood Risk This Afternoon

For a glorious brief period late Monday morning, the
dense smoke from Sunday in St. Albans, Vermont 
cleared, revealing a tropical blue sky. But soon,
clouds filled in as showers kept skirting the area.

UPDATE:

1:30 p.m. TUESDAY

It looks like a conveyer belt of sorts of storms and heavy rain are starting to move south to north up the western half of Vermont. 

This raises the potential of the dreaded "training storms" in which heavy showers move over the same spots over and over again, like those boxcars I describe in the narrative below, which I wrote this afternoon.

It's just beginning, Hubbarton has so far reported an inch of rain, and I'm sure there were a few spots in southwestern Vermont that have already had a little more.

As of 1:30 p.m. this afternoon, there were no flood advisories, alerts or warnings in Vermont. But just over the border from Rutland County, a flood advisory has been issued for adjacent New York State, in the area around Whitehall, Fort Ann, Fort Edward, Comstock, that area.

Stay on your toes for the risk of local flash flooding today anywhere in Vermont. For now, the highest risk is from the spine of the Green Mountains westward.  You're not guaranteed to see flooding, but it could happen in some spots. 

Don't drive over water-covered roads, and stay out of flood prone area if your area does go under a flood advisory or flash flood warning. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

We're now into our expected very, very wet week here in Vermont and so far, it's....only kind of wet. 

The stalled, but volatile weather pattern is still one in which flash floods are a risk, with a somewhat lower, but still possible risk of isolated severe thunderstorms. 

Through Monday, the worst of everything seems to be going around us here in Vermont. We have had much trouble with either flooding or severe weather.  Not sure it will last or not, but maybe.  

STORMS THROUGH MONDAY

One thing you have to watch when we're in a very humid, slow moving weather regime is training storms. Those are torrential showers and thunderstorms that line up like boxcars on a railroad track. Each storm in the series goes over the same spot, unleashing flooding rains in a narrow band. 

These "training storms" in a worst case scenario can cause some pretty catastrophic floods over local areas. 

So far, at least, I haven't seen that kind of "training storms" since the wet weather arrived on Saturday. 

Such weather did affect places like Maine and New Hampshire. Nearly six inches of rain poured down on Andover, in western Maine in a short period of time Monday, washing out roads and causing property damage. 

Flash flood warnings went up in various places in New Hampshire both Sunday and Monday. Severe flood damage was reported in Alexandria, New Hampshire, about 15 miles east of Lebanon.  Other road washouts were noted in parts of the White Mountains. 

New Hampshire expects more trouble, as a flood watch is in effect for most of that state today.  No watches were up in Vermont as of 9 a.m. today. 

One flash flood warning went up in extreme southeastern Vermont last evening as heavy rain moved through. Jacksonville, Vermont reported two inches of rain in a short period of time. Still, I haven't seen any reports of any real flood damage in Windham County. 

Most of the storms in Vermont moved right along on Monday, not lingering over an area long enough to cause problems. A few storms were strong. A pretty intense thunderstorm gust took down a couple trees in Essex Junction, for instance.

WHAT ABOUT TODAY?

We're in for another active weather day, and I'm sure meteorologists will be paying close attention to radar to detect potential flood trouble or strong storms. 

The remnants of a cold front will be pushing into New York State today, focusing thunderstorms in the eastern part of that state and New England, including here in Vermont. 

A few showers were already underway here and there in Vermont early this morning.  They'll blossom and become much more numerous by this afternoon. Pretty much all of us will get some rain. A few of us will get very little, a few of us will get absolutely drenched, and the rest of us will be somewhere in between. 

There's no telling in advance, though, who gets what. 

A few isolated storms might have some strong, gusty winds, so be on the lookout for that. Most of us won't see anything that dramatic, but a few "lucky" people will.  Most of the strongest storms will probably be west of Lake Champlain in New York. 

The slightly bigger concern is that boxcar effect of training storms going over the same area over and over today.

You don't really know whether that will happen or where until it is underway.  So just keep an ear out for any flash flood warnings that might come out.  Most of us won't have that kind of problem.  If any flash flooding does happen, it's most likely in steep or hilly areas this afternoon and evening.

If storms don't arrange themselves into trains, we're in good shape. They'll be moving along quickly enough so they don't dump a super duper crapload of rain in any one place. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Wednesday's looking like a literal rinse and repeat sort of day, so expect more risks of local flooding here and there. And almost everybody will get wet again. 

Thursday looks showery, too, but there probably won't be as many showers as the last few days. Friday looks even better, with more sunshine. Showers and thunderstorms will probably be pretty few and far between to close out the week. 

It looks like we might have another uptick in showers and storms over the weekend. Oh, and by the way, if you don't like the current high humidity, too bad. It'll last at least a few more days. At least it's not super hot out there.