More Needed Rain Coming To Vermont. And A Weird Severe Storm Outbreak In U.S. South

Satellite photo from this morning clearly shows
clouds from upper level storm in the eastern
Great Lakes that will move east, giving
us here in Vermont numerous showers and 
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

 The weather gods overcame my cynicism that we could finally get a decent rainfall Vermont yesterday. 

Pretty much everybody in Vermont saw a half inch to an inch of rain with several places weighing in with over an inch. 

That helps the drought situation, but doesn't solve it.  Digging in my garden soil last evening, I still encountered dusty conditions a couple inches down in some spots. But we'll take progress!

Apparently, more rain is also coming, despite the bright blue skies you saw in many areas this morning. 

Overall, another half inch to an inch of rain seems pretty possible in much of Vermont through Friday, with some locations seeing up to 1.5 inches during that period. 

The rainfall today through Friday will be more of the shower and thunderstorm type variety, so there will be the inevitable winners and losers. Some of us will get a great deal of rain. Some of us might end up in the "meh" category.

A strong upper level low will be responsible for today's showers and storms. It looks like southern Vermont might see the heaviest rain, but pretty much all of us should get something. Upper lows like this dramatically cool the upper atmosphere. 

That means some of the strongest storms might have some small hail and gusty winds. Although there might be an isolated report or two by the end of the day of severe weather, don't bank on it. This won't be anything especially scary. Mostly just beneficial. 

The real scary stuff will happen today in the Deep South. More on that in a minute. 

Thursday will feature more afternoon shower and storms, but they won't be as widespread as they are forecast to be this afternoon and evening. 

If current forecasts hold, the showers and a few thunderstorms will become somewhat more widespread again Friday and Saturday.  After that, we'll tend to start drying out, though scattered showers are still in the forecast for Sunday through next Tuesday.]

DEEP SOUTH STORM DANGER

Well, this is a weird little development.

A rare for the season severe thunderstorm and 
tornado outbreak is forecast in the red and
orange areas of this map across 
the Deep South today. 

Widespread severe storm and tornado outbreaks are common in the Deep South in the winter into early to mid spring. By May, the jet stream moves north into the central and northern United States and southern Canada. 

The jet stream helps power big storm outbreaks. So when the jet stream moves north, say goodbye to Southern tornado swarms for the season. 

 Lots of thunderstorms continue to hit the humid South over the summer, but they are just those pop up things. Some of those late spring and summer southern storms can be severe, but those are isolated cases.

Which brings us today's odd forecast.

A big outbreak of severe storms, with strong straight line winds, giant hail, and tornadoes, a couple of which might be quite strong, are forecast to hit a zone in the Deep South from extreme eastern Texas all the way to the Georgia coastline. 

Forecasters are even talking about the possibility of a derecho in that region later today. A derecho is a long lasting, fast moving cluster of intense thunderstorms. To qualify as a derecho, the system needs to travel at least 240 miles, frequently sending wind gusts to over 58 mph along its path. 

Derechos are usually very destructive. Just ask anyone in Iowa that was hit by one in August, 2020, which turned out to be the most costly thunderstorm in U.S. history.   Or people in southern Ontario and Quebec that experienced one in May, 2022 that killed 10 people and was among the most expensive weather disasters in modern Canadian history.

Derechos are kind of infrequent, maybe happening only five or fewer times per year in the United States. You'll sometimes find them in the Midwest, Northern Plains, Great Lakes, Northeast and southern Canada during the summer months.  (We can get them here in Vermont, too, but they're quite rare).

The potential destructive day in the South follows three days of severe storms that have already raked an area from Texas to the southern Appalachians.  Hail the size of baseballs or large hit communities in the Dallas-Fort Worth area for three days in a row starting Saturday. 

 I bet those hail storms in Texas caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage. This overall southern storm outbreak will almost certainly rank as yet another $1 billion or more dollar disaster for the U.S. 

The culprit in all this is that jet stream.  It didn't get the memo to move north, so it's racing over the South, helping to fuel these intense storms. The very humid air that is normal in the South this time of year is working with those strong high level winds to create this dangerous situation. 

The Southern storms aren't heading north, though. As noted, we up here in Vermont will see thunderstorm from our own, separate storm, but nothing destructive is expected. Bring on those New England rains!