Smoke Attack In Vermont/Northeast Continues, Cough, Cough. Some Relief For Vermont?

A smoky haze enveloped St. Albans Bay, Vermont 
Monday evening. The smoke and haze from Quebec
wildfires is causing unhealthy levels of pollution
in much of the Northeast, including Vermont. 

It was a murky start to the day in Vermont and much of the rest of the Northeast.

Murky starts are common in June of course, if you have a humid morning.  But it's not humid today. And that's definitely not fog and drizzle in the air. 

As we well know by now, that murk is smoke from those fires in Canada.  Most of the smoke we're getting here is from dozens of fires in Quebec. 

Air quality alerts were widespread this morning through western and central New England, most of New York and in several other scattered areas east of the Mississippi River because of the smoke this morning. 

One complex of fires in western Quebec really flared on Monday, and that sent a particularly thick batch of smoke southward into northern New York.  Vermont was on the eastern edge of that blast of smoke, but it was more than enough to screw up air quality. 

Early this morning, the air quality index at a data site in Underhill was at 151, which is considered unhealthy for everyone. 

If smoke forecasts are right, the amount of smoke in the air over Vermont will slowly wane today, but not entirely go away. 

SMOKE SQUELCHING THE RAIN?

So the act of breathing won't be entirely healthy, and the smoke introduces another problem: Will it affect the ability of the atmosphere to generate much needed showers today?

Last evening, the smoke appeared to suppress the type of updrafts needed to generate showers, so they were much fewer and far between overnight than was hoped.

Without the smoke, today would be a classic showery June day in Vermont. A pool of very chilly air aloft is moving in. Strong June sunshine would heat the ground, causing updrafts and the billowy tall clouds that create numerous but localized showers. 

You know that drill:  It's sunny, then it gets chilly and sprinkly, then the warm sun returns, only to be replaced by a minutes-long downpour, then a little more sun. Rinse and repeat. 

Will the smoke in the air today once again tamp down on those updrafts, which in turn would make showers less widespread?

In their forecast discussion, meteorologists at the National Weather Service in South Burlington admitted they were a little stumped on this question. For good reason. 

As one of the South Burlington meteorologists wrote in their discussion: "It is worth noting that this is rather uncharted territory for many NWS forecasters across the Northeast WFOs having to deal with wildfire smoke for the first time in their forecasting careers. In other words, we are learning and adapting as the event unfolds."

The optimistic thinking for today is that smoke will diminish slowly from northeast to southwest just as the cold air aloft also comes in from that direction.  So we should see some showers this afternoon, but most places should only expect a tenth to a quarter inch of rain. 

A bit more rain could come Wednesday and Thursday. But of course those fires in Quebec will continue to rage. We're at risk for more smoke attacks this week, and possibly beyond that.

PAST SMOKEOUTS

The smoke we've been experiencing this week rivals two of the more intense smoke events that I can recall. 

The first was on July 7, 2002.  It had been forecast to be a perfect Sunday for weather. Sunshine, a nice breeze, low humidity, comfortable temperatures. 

Fires in Quebec had other plans. By mid-morning that day, haze was increasing, and by afternoon, the sunshine was gone.   . The sky looked overcast, but there was not a cloud in the sky. It was all smoke. The sun in the late afternoon looked like a faint pink dot in the sky. In the 2002 case, the majority of the smoke was aloft, so the air on the ground was only moderately unhealthy.

Another smoke attack on May 31, 2010 focused smoke closer to the ground, leading to a very unhealthy day. Visibility in much of Vermont was reduced to less than two miles in thick smoke and haze. 

The current smoke attack is more complicated than the two I just mentioned. The previous two hit during otherwise fair weather, so meteorologists then didn't have to worry about whether the smoke would interfere with rain chances. 

This one could well be longer lasting, too. Instead of lasting a day, this one could wax and wane over the course of several days.   Even if the worst of it doesn't last particularly long, we can expect many days this summer with haze in the skies, just as we did in May. 

Firefighters are battling the blazes in Canada, and assistance from other nations is flowing in. But those big blazes to our north won't go out anytime soon.