Odd Weather Pattern Continues: More Rain For Us, Southern Storms Grind On, Canada To Bake Again?

Storm clouds approach South Burlington, Vermont late
Wednesday afternoon, creating an ominous look to the 
sky. The storm wasn't severe, just causing a downpour,
some lightning and wind gusts to about 30 mph. 

The weird weather patterns look they will continue for awhile. 

For now anyway, that's good news for us in northern New England, which had seemed to be headed toward a flash drought.   But we might have just been rescued from that scenario.  

A flash drought, to review, is one that develops within weeks. Most droughts take months to develop.

The weekly U.S. Drought Report comes out later this morning and I bet they'll still have parts of northern Vermont in some drought. That's because they will not have had a chance to consider all the rain we've had this week. 

And more is coming, so that will continue to help. 

Meanwhile, the odd pattern will continue to rake the South with April-style severe weather. Plus, a new record heat wave might be on the way for parts of Ontario and Quebec, with implications for the fires burning up there. 

A caveat: When the weather pattern is as crazy as it is now, forecasts are even trickier than usual.  What you're about to read is gleaned from various forecast by the National Weather Service and Environment Canada.  

Given the challenges of the forecast, it almost definitely won't play out exactly how I'll outline below. But it gives you a general idea of how lucky this weirdness is for us, at least this week, and how unlucky it is for so many other places.

First let's look at what's going on around here:

MORE RAIN!

Yesterdays' thunderstorms and showers dumped, broadly speaking, another half inch or so of rain on much of Vermont. The storms weren't severe, but at least they were bonafide, noticeable summer thunderstorms for a change. The structure on the one that passed through the Burlington area late Wednesday afternoon was beautiful. 

If the forecasts are right, we have a bunch more rain to get through. 

Today will be much more hit and miss than Wednesday.  Perhaps 40 percent of us will see a shower or storm.  A few lucky souls will get a quick downpour, and some will get nothing at all. 

The cut-off upper level low still lurks nearby and will continue to do so for the next few days. The next disturbance circulating through that upper level storm comes in tomorrow. 

It's looking similar to the one that hit yesterday, so that means another shot of widespread showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.  Like Wednesday, there probably won't be much rain around in the morning, but things will pick up as the day goes on.  Some thunderstorms might be a little gusty and contain small hail, but we're not in for anything severe.

If current projections hold, it looks like some fairly heavy rain might last well into Saturday.  There's even a chance there could be enough rain to cause isolated, minor flooding. How about that, after those drought conditions!

I'll emphasize, though that it still definitely looks like this rainy week will end up benefitting us much more that hurt us. 

It looks like things will dry out some next week, as warm air comes at us again, not from the south. But from Canada. Again. This is one of several instances this spring and early summer that our warmer air comes from the north.  Like I said, odd weather. 

This warm Canadian air has some unpleasant implications: 

HOT NORTH

Forecasted hot weather in northern Ontario and Quebec
next week could re-invigorate wildfires up there,
potentially sending smoke and haze like this'
back into Vermont. Photo from June 4, St. Albans.

It's beginning to look like another blast of record heat and dryness will settle in to central and northern sections of both Ontario and Quebec next week. 

Fires are still ongoing up there, and they also haven't seen much rain this week. I bet the fires will reinvigorate under those conditions. Worse, long range forecasts are starting to hint at another relatively dry, but possibly lightning filled cold front to pass through those northern areas in a little over a week.

That would make all kinds of new fires blossom, like what happened in the opening days of June.  Which is back for them, and bad for us, since new, big fires would open the doors for renewed smoke attacks.  

We'll keep an eye on it. 

That expected "head dome" as they're called up in the Great White North will help bleed some at least warmish air south toward us, as mentioned. 

Meanwhile, the pattern of stalled, upper level storm systems in the eastern United States  would continue.  Another one of those might form next week, but would get suppressed to the south by that Canadian heat dome.

That, in turn would cause the type of showery weather we've had this week stay to Vermont's south next week, at least for awhile.  It's still kind of a tossup as to which will win out for us, the warm, dry Canadian air or the cool showers coming up from, yes, the south. Backwards again! 

This next cut off storm would then keep the jet stream suppressed to the South, continuing their severe storm nightmare

STORMY SOUTH

As I mentioned yesterday, that jet stream, much too far south for this time of year, is battering the South with tornadoes, giant hail, destructive winds and flooding. 

There were reports of at least 10 tornadoes, mostly in southern Georgia on Wednesday. I don't know whether a derecho developed, but I do see two long, distinct lines of damage reports in the South, so maybe. 

Today won't be much better.  The entire South is under severe storm and flood risks today. The epicenter of today's action looks to be further west toward Oklahoma, southern Kansas and northern Texas. Some tornadoes are expected, and another derecho might develop in the region later today. 

Given the expected weather pattern through next week, I can't imagine the severe weather and flooding will entirely stop in the South anytime soon.