Monday, June 12, 2023

Quick Monday Update: They're Still Saying We'll Get Needed Rain

Remember those National Weather Service snowfall 
prediction maps I so often post in the winter? Here's
something similar. This is what the NWS office in
South Burlington predict for rainfall through this
coming Sunday. Virtually everyone  in Vermont 
gets at least an inch of rain under this scenario.
 A couple inconsequential sprinkles have gone through Vermont overnight and this morning, a signal that rain is still on the way. 

I remain in a "I'll believe it when I see it" mode as I have been disappointed by the prospect of needed rain more than once this spring. 

Still, meteorologists are holding firm with their insistence that we'll get some needed rain, even if that rainfall won't necessarily be in blockbuster amounts. 

Out ahead of the main show, there could be a few widely scattered thunderstorms with isolated downpours this afternoon. It's getting relatively humid out there, though it's no great shakes for June. 

Temperatures could go as high as the low 80s this afternoon, and that could generate enough instability to prompt a few of those thunderstorms. 

Tonight, a weather front moves in and, as forecasters insist, would soak us with at least a half inch of rain, with a few spots maybe picking up a full inch. 

Tuesday afternoon is actually looking not bad, though, as the bulk of the rain will have moved out by then. Some sunshine will break out, and we'll probably have a pretty nice evening. 

The rest of the week, Wednesday through at least Friday, but probably into Saturday, will feature daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

As is usually the case with this type of thing, they'll be most numerous the afternoons and evenings. And they will be hit and miss. All of us will probably get some rain during the second half of the week. But some of us will get just a little, and some of us will see quite a bit.  You never know until it hits. 

Through the week, temperatures will stay near or a little cooler than average for this time of year. 

The general rule of thumb in a Vermont summer is you want about an inch of rain, or just a bit more than that per week.

If the current forecasts pan out, most of us will see between one inch and 1.3 inches of rain today through next Sunday. That would definitely be enough to get us through the week, but would partly overcome the precipitation deficit we've built up. 

Even if we do have a rainy week, we'll still want several more wet weeks through the summer. Rain might not be great for outdoor activities, but if we could miraculously time the rainstorms for the overnight hours that would be perfect.

We know Mother Nature doesn't work that way, though. 

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