Right On Schedule Possible Gulf Of Mexico Tropical Storm Looms

UPDATE 2 PM FRIDAY

Satellite view this afternoon of what could become
Tropical Storm Arlene. Today's the officials start of the
Atlantic hurricane season, so good timing. 

This struggling storm has been upgraded this afternoon and is now officially Tropical Storm Arlene.

It's not a big thing, with top winds of 40 mph. That's barely tropical storm strength. 

As forecast, it's headed south through the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

High winds aloft and dry air poking into Arlene's circulations should make this tropical storm short-lived.

Already, the storm is poised to fall apart. Its thunderstorms are displaced to the northeast of the center, which is just a swirl of low clouds.

As upper level winds get stronger later today and tonight, the storm will get blown apart. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

The National Hurricane Center this afternoon is watching a developing system in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico that could become the seasons's first Atlantic tropical storm.

If it does develop into one, it means the season is getting off to a prompt start.   The Atlantic hurricane season official runs from today, June 1, through November 30, though you can occasionally have tropical storms before or after those dates. 

It is kind of unusual, but not way out of whack to see a tropical storm form on the first day of hurricane season.   The National Hurricane Center says this one has a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm or depression, so there's no guarantee.

But those chances have really ramped up since early this morning, when the NHC was saying the cluster of thunderstorms only had a 20 percent chance of growing into a tropical storm. 

As of mid-afternoon, the system didn't look super impressive on satellite, but you'd have to expect that with a disorganized, wannabe storm. But you can see telltale signs of a circulation, and thunderstorms mostly north and east of the center seem to be getting better organized.

If this turns into a tropical storm, they'll name it Arlene.  If Wannabe Arlene does become a tropical storm, forecasters don't expect it to last long.  It'll meander over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, and then head slowly southbound on Friday. 

Again if it officially Arlene, the National Hurricane Center doesn't expect it to last long. Strong upper level winds should start to screw up the storm's circulation starting on Friday. 

Strong upper level winds are common this early in the hurricane season, so that's no surprise. Plus, an El Nino pattern has developed. That, too, can cause stronger upper level winds that nip would-be hurricanes in the bud.

The Gulf of Mexico waters are unusually warm for this time of year, so that's probably helping to give this system a boost toward tropical storm status. 

The center of Arlene, or whatever this thing will eventually become, should stay offshore, but could still produce heavy rains and possible flooding in Florida over the upcoming weekend.