Summer Of Smoke: Why The Haze Will Probably Stay Into The Autumn

Map of Canada showing where fires were burning 
earlier this week.  Red dots are where fires were
still out of control. 

The thick smoke that has enveloped the Northeast, including Vermont in recent days is really making the news.  

The headlines will probably diminish with the smoke in the coming days. However, from the looks of things, we have a summer of smoke and haze to come. And we're still definitely at risk for a dense, widespread smoke attack like the Northeast suffered through this week.  

BLAME CANADA 

The problem is, Canada is on fire, and that won't change anytime soon. 

Put it this way: It's only the beginning of June.  If all the fires in Canada were to miraculously go out this minute, and no new wildfires started for the rest of the year, this would still be Canada's second worst wildfire year in - at least-  recent years. 

In many parts of Canada, especially central, northern and especially western parts of the Great White North, wildfire season doesn't really peak until July and August. 

Even if the fires are distant, not those relatively nearby ones in Quebec, the sky can still fill with a smoky haze. We've seen that during the big western United States wildfires in recent years. 

To put things selfishly, the most immediate problem for us is Quebec. The southern third of Quebec, along with fire-ravage Nova Scotia, do look like they'll have some fairly decent rains over the next week. 

That will help tamp down, at least temporarily, the worst fires that are closest to us. But there's no guarantee the semi-wet weather will continue there, so the blazes could revive later in the summer. Still, if we keep fires further away from the United States border, that would slightly reduce the amount of pollution on the ground.  We'd still have a lot of smoke and haze, however.

That's because the vast mostly boreal forests of central and northern Quebec and Ontario, little if any rain is due for at least a week. That will keep the fires going, and new fire starts are inevitable.

Much of Canada is in drought. Later this summer, lightning strikes will ignite new fires. Lightning is largely why it's been so smoky this week in the eastern United States. A barrage of dry lightning ignited dozens of new Quebec fires, which quickly spread and became gigantic. (Dry lightning comes from thunderstorms that produce little or no rain, but plenty of lightning and wind gusts).

MORE TROUBLE SPOTS

Meanwhile, other trouble spots are brewing that could yield more wildfire smoke. The Pacific Northwest in the United States has been hot and dry lately.  That is setting the stage for more forest fires to spark out there. 

In the upper Great Lakes, the same hot, high pressure systems that have created the conditions to spark those Canadian fires has hit this region. Forest fires have ignited there. 

Wildfire smoke shrouding New York City this week. 

We're not immune in the Northeast, either. A flash drought seems to be developing, including here in Vermont. (The light rains this week in the Green Mountain State this week aren't amounting to much).

Interestingly, the National Interagency Fire Center has the Pacific Northwest, the northern and western Great Lakes, the Adirondacks, all of Vermont and New Hampshire and western Maine as having above normal significant wildfire potential.

All this is not to say we won't see any more clear blue sky days. 

If an airmass threads the needle between fires, or air comes at us late this summer from a region where fires have been extinguished, then we'll get some great blue sky days. 

But the haze that's been in the sky so often starting in early May will be a frequent visitor to us Vermonters. 

Thankfully, chances are that the smoke on most occasions will stay mostly high aloft, a few thousand feet above where we live.  That means we won't have to deal as much with the health dangers of wildfire smoke. At least for now.

BAD FOR HEALTH AND ECONOMY 

The smoke particles in the air are tiny, about one thirtieth of the width of the hair on your head.  Those particles can then get deep into your lungs, and even transfer into your blood stream. 

Those smoky health dangers are big for all of us, which is why everybody hated the air quality alerts we had to endure. According to the EPA: 

"Fine particles are respiratory irritants, and exposures to high concentrations can cause persistent coughing, phlegm, wheezing, and difficulty breathing. Even in healthy people, exposures to fine particles can potentially lead to transient reductions in lung function and pulmonary inflammation. 

"Particle pollution may also affect the body's ability to remove inhaled foreign material, such as viruses and bacteria, from the lungs. Short-term exposures, (i.e. days to weeks) to fine particles are associated with increased risk of exacerbation of pre-existing respiratory and cardiovascular disease, as well as premature mortality."

So yeah, wildfire smoke sucks. 

It's also disruptive. I noticed some Major League Baseball games in New York and Philadelphia were postponed this week due to the wildfire smoke. And a Chris Stapleton concert in Syracuse, New York was postponed due to the smoke. 

I'm sure many other activities and such were canceled. Plus, I'm sure customers avoided outdoor venues like amusement parks and outdoor eateries in the Northeast because of the health hazards. Not only is the smoke risky for one's health, it also has real life economic drawbacks. 

Unfortunately, this isn't a one-off summer, either. Climate change has exacerbated the risk of big fires across North America.  This week's big smoke attack follows similar ones in San Francisco in 2020, when the sky turned an apocalyptic orange, much as it did in New York on Wednesday. 

The same problem hit Seattle and other Pacific Northwest cities last year. And in Sydney, Australia back in 2019,

There will be more smoke attacks going forward due to climate change. It proves that consequences of climate induced calamities  like wildfires aren't limited to the site of the disaster. 

A forest fire will never rage through Midtown Manhattan. But regardless, New York and countless other cities are suffering the effects from these fires. It's a reminder that climate change, one way or another, threatens us via negative health effects, economic loss, or just the mental distress of not seeing a clean, clear blue sky.