One More Really Wet Vermont Day, Then An (Eventual) Heat Wave?

Today won't be a day for enjoying the summer out on the
deck. A chilly, day long rain is underway in Vermont.
Which is OK, we still need the moisture. 

 Dark, rainy and cold for the season is the story for us as we got up this Saturday morning. 

This will be Vermont's big washout weekend day of the summer.  Probably simultaneously the worst and best weather day of the season. 

It's the worst day of course because outdoor recreation today in Vermont is tricky at best.   Temperatures will stay in the low 60s, a good 15 degrees below normal.  If it stops raining where you are for 10 minutes, consider yourself lucky. 

On the other hand, it's a fantastic weather day.  It's pretty rare to get a good, day long soaking statewide this time of year.  And, it's the second good widespread soaking with a week. 

Usually, it's hit and miss showers and thunderstorms during the summer months.  More often than not, those showers are widespread enough in the summer to give us adequate wetting, but not always. We really needed this wet week, because it was too dry before this hit, and we're in for what looks like another spell of hot, dry, weather. At least eventually. 

More on that in a bit. 

SOAKING RAINS 

Yesterday's rain in Vermont was indeed hit and miss. Some places got a lot less than expected, a few spots got more. It was a strange day on the radar screen. Showers and thunderstorms developed randomly, especially north, some with heavy downpours. 

They moved very slowly, if at all, and erratically. Some storms approaching from Canada headed south, while other areas of rain moved eastward or even northward.  I'm sure a few spots got TONS of rain, which slightly raises the stakes for potential minor flooding in those areas today.

So far, the most rain I've seen anywhere in Vermont as of 7 a.m. is 1.51 inches in Hinesburg, but I'm sure a few local spots got more. 

Today's storm is acting very much like a wintertime nor'easter. Except it's not going to snow. 

The storm is consolidating along the New England coast, and is flinging some occasionally fairly heavy rain westward all the way through New England into New York State.

In the winter, something called a deformation zone, a stripe of heavier snow, sets up well northwest of the nor'easter. This situation gives us Vermont our big dumps of snow for the ski areas.

That wintertime deformation zone seems to be setting up in eastern New York and Vermont today. Which explains why rainfall totals for most us, starting last night and ending tonight, will amount to more than an inch. 

This heavy rain seems like it will hit New Hampshire and Maine a little harder, so flood watches are up in that area.

No flood alerts are in effect in Vermont as of mid-morning. Forecasters are watching areas of especially heavy rain for signs of high water. So far, it looks like we'll escape with  nothing worse than ponding of water on some roads, underpasses and low spots. 

DRYING, HEATING UP

The upper level storm system that has been keeping us wet will gradually depart over the next few days,  to be replaced by a heat dome that will center itself over Ontario, parts of Quebec and extending into the northern Great Lakes and northern New England. 

A heat dome, common in the summer, is an area of high pressure that traps an area of hot air beneath it. These can lead to extended, record breaking heat waves. 

This one looks like it might only last a few days, but probably will cause some record heat in parts of Ontario and Quebec.

For us, it means a gradual shift during the upcoming week from cooler than normal weather Sunday, to near normal conditions Monday through Wednesday, then hot by the end of the week, with temperatures possibly reaching 90 degrees by then. 

This will shut off the waterworks. We might still see a few light showers Sunday, but that will probably be just about it through at least Friday. (Though there might be a few isolated light showers in the mountains Monday and Tuesday).

The new weather pattern is obviously bad news for those wildfires burning in Quebec and Ontario. They're really not getting much rain up there and the fires are still going. The upcoming hot, dry weather in these Canadian provinces will reinvigorate some of these fires, and new ones will likely start. 

For us, that just keeps the chances of more smoke attacks in Vermont and much of the eastern United States going for probably at least the rest of the month.