Vermont Drought: Effects Are Getting Widespread And Severe

The beach at Sandbar State Park in Milton, Vermont is
a LOT bigger than it used to be thanks to a near
record low Lake Champlain. The drought is 
depleting water statewide. 

As anybody can see by just looking around them, Vermont's punishing drought keeps taking a mounting, frustrating toll.  

It's now doing pretty much everything a drought can do. Dry wells, water shortages, fire danger, crop losses, shockingly low rivers and lakes. And there's no end in sight. 

We're witnessing another side of the disastrous extreme climate change is bringing to Vermont. Climate change is hitting everywhere, and we have seen our share of trouble here in the Green Mountain State. 

We had so many floods in recent years that these inundations felt like our "new normal." That turned out to be only part of the story.  Climate change is surely bringing more intense rains and floods. But it also  bringing worse droughts. 

We had a close miss in that regard last fall, when things started getting disconcertingly dry in Vermont. We were on the northern edge of a punishing drought that set forests ablaze from Pennsylvania and New Jersey to Massachusetts and Maine. 

We got lucky because rain and snow returned last winter and spring. We were temporarily rescued from some serious drought effects.

Now, we're not so fortunate.  The drought is consuming so much of our lives now.  Even if our wells are still running well, we look around at wilted plants, brown mountainsides and Vermont's once clear, rushing streams now turned into empty gravel pits. 

There's so many examples of what this drought is doing to us. I have some of the receipts: .

CROPS/LIVESTOCK

The drought is battering crops. It's peak apple season. What apples we have in Vermont are of good quality, but there's just not many of them.  It was super rainy during spring pollination season, so bees didn't have a chance to do their work then, because they don't do their work in stormy weather. 

Then the drought hit. You need lots of water to make big apples. So, they're small this year. Between the wet spring and the drought, some Vermont growers are saying they only have 50 percent of their expected apples. 

Dairy farmers are struggling with a lack of feed and water shortages. Some farmers are being forced to buy feed from elsewhere, which is very expensive.  Since profits - when they come - are extremely slim in dairy farming, this could become a serious crisis for some.  It could even shut down some of Vermont's already dwindling number of farms. 

FORESTS AND FIRES

Most Vermont brush and woodland fires come in the early spring shortly after the snow melts. There's dead vegetation and sunshine dries it out. Green leaves haven't appeared yet.

This spring in Vermont was wet, so we didn't get the usual number of fires. A few months ago, we thought we'd have an easy fire year. I guess we thought wrong.  

Through September 11, Vermont has seen 60 fires which have burned through 52.41 acres.  Expect this number to rise, possibly fairly quickly, until we get some decent, consistent rains. That's more than the total number of fires in some entire years, like 2017 and 2019.

Last year, Vermont had a busy time with fires, with 99 of them scorching a total of 180.6 acres. That was in large part due to a dry autumn which helped spark numerous fires. 

Autumn, 2024 could give us a hint of what we face in the coming month or two. The trouble would really begin in October as leaves fall from trees and dry out, and underbrush succumbs to the increasing chill of the season, turns brown and dies. That will provide more fuel for fires. It could make last autumn's blazes look like a campfire in comparison. 

Some or even many of those trees on thin, rocky soil you saw wilting and turning brown in August might never come back. The drought might well have killed them. We won't know for sure until spring when trees normally leaf out. 

The drought is leaving behind more dry wood to fuel forest fires.  The drought-killed trees, combined with the many more ash trees done in by the emerald ash borer, are combining to leave a lot of dead, dry wood around. 

Areas with a lot of dead trees would burn more easily, and burn hotter in this current drought.  The problem will also last for several years as the deceased trees will be there for years. They'll increase the fire risk during future droughts. 

Meanwhile, the forest fire danger today is high, as it's been for a week or more now. 

WATER SUPPLIES

 Many private wells have gone dry. The Vermont Agency of Natural Resources asks people with low or dry wells to report their issues and to visit its website to find a list of local water haulers and other drought resources. 

Vermont officials are trying to make sure they understand the extent of the problem. If your private well or spring is dry or low, the Department of Environmental Conservation is encouraging people to submit information to their Drought Reporter. 

 Some fire departments are trying to refill wells with their trucks, but not all can do that. Municipalities are running short of water, too, and have to supply the whole town. They can't use the limited amount of water left in reservoirs to refill private wells. 

A glimpse of the near future in Vermont might be comings from Moriah, New York. The town of 4,800 a little west of Port Henry has imposed an emergency water ban that prohibits all non-essential outdoor and indoor water use for at least six days. 

TOURISM

The drought is certainly affecting Vermont's famed foliage season. Despite warm weather, trees are turning color earlier than usual because trees are stressed by the dry weather. 

Worse, the color might well be dull. I've seen some hillsides turning a sad brown because green leaves are wilting for lack of water.  Other areas are mainly still green.  Droughts often dull the vibrancy of autumn foliage, and that might be the case this year.  We won't know for sure until fall foliage season reaches its peak.  

It'll still be pretty, but perhaps not as colorful as most years. We shall see.

I haven't heard much yet about how the drought might affect ski areas. They use a lot of water to make snow, and there's no longer much water available. Ski conditions might suffer, we shall see.

OUTLOOK

The weather forecast still has not changed much. Some clouds will cover the sky today, but will yield no rain. The humidity will stay low, too. Thursday will bring warm, dry weather. 

A cold front is still likely to come through Thursday night. A couple towns might get a sprinkle, that's it. 

Then, after a couple cool, dry days, it will turn warm and dry again. The next chance of rain still looks like it would come around September 25 and 26. 

However, some early indications are that next storm might slide by to our south, keeping the dry weather going. We don't know that for sure, so keep your fingers crossed!

Forecasts through September 30 keep us dry,  I don't see any big changes in this bad, dry weather pattern. 

The next weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report comes out tomorrow morning. It  hasn't rained in Vermont since September 7, so I'm sure the report will confirm things have gotten even worse.  

Climate Change Made California Fires More Likely

A bank burns during the January wildfire crisis in southern
California. Experts have concluded that climate change 
made this disaster more likely. Photo by CalFire.

Climate change made those horrific January California wildfires more likely, but the overall picture is complicated, experts who have done an analysis on the crisis have concluded. 

World Weather Attribution is an organization that does rapid response analyses of extreme weather events to determine whether climate change contributed to these events and to what extent. 

The link between the fires and climate change is complex, but it is there. 

Yale Climate Connections reported on the World Weather Attribution findings:

"The hot, dry and windy conditions that drive the fires were about 35 percent more likely and 6 percent more intense due to 1.3 degrees Celsius of global warming that has occurred since preindustrial times."

Also, "Low rainfall from October through December in the current climate is about 2.4 times more likely compared to the preindustrial climate, but this change cannot be confidently attributed to human-caused climate change"

"Fire-prone conditions because of human-caused climate change have increased by about 23 extra days each year, increasing the chance a fire will start from October through December, which coincides with the onset of peak Santa Ana wind season." 

Other findings by WWA suggest that the California dry season has increased by about 23 days since the global climate began warming to its current 1.3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. 

That means there's now a greater overlap between the time Santa Ana winds typical hit and the times that those winds can create firestorms like we saw last month in California. 

WWA also noted that the atmospheric patterns that are known to strengthen Santa Ana winds has increased in the winter, which increases the risk of weather that encourages wildfire in January. However, WWA scientists say they are unsure if this atmospheric pattern trend can conclusively be tied to climate change. More study is needed on that topic. 

The bottom line: WWA concludes that climate change had an impact on the fires. Here's their precise conclusion: 

"Given all these lines of evidence we have high confidence that human-induced climate change, primarily driven by the burning of fossil fuels, increased the likelihood of the devastating LA fires."

Since the likelihood of fires has apparently increased in southern California due to climate change, they'll need to build more resilience to future fires, WWA tells us. 

There is a high number of both elderly and disabled people living in the potential fire zones, so plans need to be in place to help them evacuate more quickly and easily when danger lurks. 

The fires also proved the water infrastructure in the area is inadequate. Despite the bleatings of the Trump administration and others, the reservoirs had plenty of water to fight the fires. 

But city infrastructure like water mains, hydrants and such are designed to handle routine fires, like when a single house or business burns down. The water system clearly can't hand major fires like this, as we know some hydrants ran dry from too much demand in the local systems. 

The region also needs more defensible areas, in which brush and other flammables are kept away from homes, businesses and neighborhoods. And rebuilding should use fire-resistant materials.

As bad as this tragic wildfire episode was, it'll happen again at some time in the future. Now is the time to take steps to make sure southern California - and other wildfire prone areas - take steps to minimize the danger. 

Because climate change is not going to go away. 

 

California Fires Kept Popping Up, Spreading, But Finally Rain Starting Later Today

A photo from Reuters of the Hughes Fire, another massive
wildfire that broke out in California this week. The Hughes
Fire, thankfully, did not mow down neighborhoods.
Finally, rain is in the Southern California
forecast for this weekend. 

It's been whack-a-mole all week with wildfires breaking out in southern California. 

Meanwhile, millions of people in that region are looking to the skies later today and tonight looking for the promised raindrops. 

More on that in a bit.

THE FIRES

A slew of new fires kept areas near Los Angeles and San Diego seriously rattled Wednesday, Thursday and Friday and kept air quality unhealthy. 

Perhaps the largest of the new blazes, known as the Hughes Fire, covered more than 10,000 acres as it spread rapidly in and near the Santa Clarita Valley Wednesday night and Thursday. It sent thousands of residents fleeing under evacuation orders

So far, I've heard of few, if any houses burned by this fire, which is great news. 

Another fast moving fire prompted evacuations and threatened California State University Channel Islands in Ventura County.  That fire was being gradually tamped down Friday and classes resumed the university after being canceled Thursday.   

Another large fire was burning out of control in San Diego County right near the Mexican border. That fire was initially fast-spreading and erratic, and prompted evacuations, but firefighters had slowed its progress by Friday afternoon. 

It's been another trying week in California, but at least this time, whole neighborhoods have not been wiped out in the new fires so you have to take any good news you can. 

THE RAIN

Miraculously, earlier forecasts of a rainy Southern California weekend have not evaporated. It's still going to rain. 

This won't be any kind of huge storm, as most places in the Los Angeles and San Diego areas should received about a half inch to an inch of rain between now and Monday. 

That is unequivocally awesome news, but of course, this being California, the rain comes with its own risks.

For the vast majority of the southern California, the rain will just wet down tinder dry vegetation, but not be heavy enough to cause any mudslides or flooding.

The problem is where there's been wildfires. It wouldn't take much to set off debris flows in these areas, since the vegetation that held steep hillsides in place is gone. The surface of the soils have been cooked hard by the fires, meaning rainwater can't penetrate, it will just run off downhill, collecting more and more debris along the way. 

It's amazing that the NOAA's Weather Prediction Center felt the need to place a marginal risk of flash flooding through the weekend in southern California areas that have been burning for the past month. But there you go. 

The National Weather Service office in Los Angeles is giving a 10 to 20 percent chance of significant debris flows in recent burn scar areas. Those odds seem low-ish, but are actually pretty high if you consider the grave danger they pose to anybody or any property in the path of these things. 

The hope is the rain will just fall gently and steadily, and not in short, sharp downpours. 

As of this morning, it looks like the region will get a little bit of both styles of rain. It will rain in most places at a rate of something like a tenth of an inch per hour, which isn't a big deal. 

But a very cold pool of air aloft means thunderstorms could easily develop. Under those storms, a half inch to three quarters of an inch of rain could come down within an hour. If that happens over a recent burn area, you're going to get debris flows. 

Even if there are no major debris flows, runoff could spread toxic ash from fire zones into areas not directly affected by the wildfires. 

One last concern: This rain won't get rid of the drought that's developed in California. Worse, this could be a "one and done" storm. Some forecasts have no more rain for southern California in the pipeline for the next few weeks.  Other predictions bring at least a couple more rain storms once we get into early February.  It's a tossup. 

If the storm-free forecasts win out,  things will dry out again and we'll be right back where we've been all month, with wildfires raging once again in and near Los Angeles and San Diego. 

The best bet for southern California is a series of light rain storms coming one after another, without torrential downpours. That's really threading the needle.

Given the weather extremes that California and so many other places have been going through lately, I unfortunately am not betting on the "Goldilocks" scenario of light rains. It will probably be either more drought or torrential downpours. 

 

After California Fires Ease, More Homes Likely Will Be Destroyed In Mudslides

Devastation after a debris flow killed 23 people in 
Mendicito, California in January, 2018. A large wildfire
a month earlier set the stage for this disaster.
The same or worse could happen again in the '
aftermath of this month's wildfires if the
weather turns very wet in February and March. 

 In what might at first glance seem like a strange development, a Pacific Palisades house miraculously spared by this month's wildfires was destroyed by a mudslide on Wednesday.  

No, unfortunately,  it did not rain in southern California yesterday.

 Instead, the home above where the mudslide started was destroyed in the fire.  Firefighting efforts and water leaks caused by the blaze soaked the steep hill, causing the mudslide.

This brings about a bigger worry:  If the rains finally returns, southern California could face devastating mudslides. 

This is always a risk on and below hillsides in the few years in the aftermath of a wildfire.  Vegetation that hold soil and rocks in place has been destroyed.  

Also, the heat of the fire makes soils "hydrophobic."  Yes, kind of afraid of water. 

The wildfires create a layer on top of the soil that water can't penetrate. Burning vegetation forms a sort of wax that oozes into the soil, then hardens when it cools. That creates that "hydrophobic" layer that rainwater can't get through. 

Then, when it finally rains on steep slopes, the rain starts running downhill, gathering fire debris, rocks, stones and whatever else it can grab.  These turn into devastating debris flows that wipe out everything in their path.  

The problem can last months or even years after a fire, but the sooner it rains heavily after the wildfire, the more critical the risk. 

Which leads us to the California wildfires. 

It's supposed to be the rainy season right now in and around Los Angeles. That it hasn't really rained yet this winter is why this wildfire devastation was so surprising. Had it rained like it normally would have, there still would have been an awful windstorm with lots of trees and power lines toppled. But there would have been either no fires, or blazes that wouldn't spread much and be easy to suppress.

The rainy season in southern California goes into March.  It could suddenly turn very wet.  Especially in this age of climate change, there's a greater propensity for "weather whiplash," in which conditions go abruptly from hot to cold and back again, or very wet to super dry to soggy again. 

I'll have more on this intensified "weather whiplash" in an upcoming post.

There's no real sign of rain in southern California anytime soon. Los Angeles might go the entire month of January without seeing any rain at all. On average, L.A. usually gets a little under three inches of rain in January.

There are subtle signs the weather pattern could change toward something wetter in February, though nobody knows for sure. 

POST-FIRE DEBRIS FLOWS

A worse case scenario is if the things change so abruptly that atmospheric rivers start plowing into the southern California from the Pacific. Atmospheric rivers are narrow bands of deep moisture that can create torrential rains and flooding.  

Atmospheric rivers hit the Los Angeles area last February, dousing the city with ten inches of rain that month - with seven inches coming in just two days.  To nobody's surprise, that caused some horrible flooding and mudslides. and causing some serious flooding. 

If the same thing were to  happen this February, it would be catastrophic. Freshly burned hillsides would slip away or send intense debris flows flying down hillsides. Also, the wreckage of destroyed homes would not have been removed yet, so that would add to the scary debris flows.

These things hit fast, and there's little time to get out of their way.  Usually, there's less time to evacuate ahead of a debris flow  than people had when they fled this month's wildfires.

There's a history of devastating debris flows after wildfires, both in the L.A. area and elsewhere. 

On December 4, 2017, the Thomas Fire broke out and consumed 282,000 acres in Ventura and Santa Barbara counties and consumed 1,000 structures. At the time, it was the largest wildfire in California history. 

Later that winter, the usual winter rains arrived in southern California. On January 9, 2018,  torrential rain fell on the Thomas Fire burn scar and sent a huge, devastating debris flow through Montecito, California, killing 23 people, injuring 150 and leaving hundred of homes and businesses destroyed or damaged.   

Last June, wildfires raced through the hills above Ruidoso, New Mexico, a community of about 8,000 people. Then the normal monsoon thunderstorms hit later in the summer. At least eight times, debris flows from the fire area crashed through the city during and after those summer downpours. 

As of today, the fires still rage in southern California. More strong, dry winds are possible next week, which could make the situation worse. 

Everybody wants it to rain in southern California. But we had better hope and pray the wet weather comes in the form of weeks with long periods of drizzle, light rain and fog. Such gentle wet weather would minimize debris flows.

The worst case scenario would be thunderstorms and downpours, which would a southern California catastrophe so much worse.   

Wednesday California Fires Update: So Far, No New Big Catacylsm, But Deep Danger, Sorrow Remain

Areas in red are under a red flag warning, meaning destructive
fires are possible today. Areas outlined in purple are in a 
"particularly dangerous situation" where any fires that
start or spread would be extremely fast moving and
erratic. Click on map to make it bigger easier to see.

A glimmer of good news in California Tuesday as winds weren't quite as strong as forecast, helping firefighters hold the lines on the giant wildfires burning there. 

But today could be a long one. 

Winds have picked up dangerously, gusting to 50 mph in some areas. That's more than enough to spread embers and start new fires. Early morning video from television KTLA early this morning showed fairly strong, gusty winds already blowing through Ventura County.

Reports of 35 to 50 mph with higher gusts have been coming in all morning. That rare, "particularly dangerous situation" fire weather warning remains in effect through 3 p.m, local time today for Los Angeles and Ventura counties.

Residents have been told to have  a "to go" bad ready by the front door, and be ready to leave, and quickly at the drop of a hat. 

There are far more firefighters deployed in and around Los Angeles today than when the fires started last week, so the hope is those resources can gain the upper hand if a new fire starts. 

Meanwhile, the Associated Press reports about 50 arrests for looting, flying drones in fire zones, violating curfew and other crimes. Three of those were arrested for arson, but the fires they allegedly started remained small, were quickly put out, and were not near the disaster zone.

So far, the death toll is 25, but up to 30 people remain missing. Searchers are looking for bodies in the rubble of some of the worst hit neighborhoods, 

Here's one snapshot of the new reality Angelenos are facing. One resident said the sound of helicopters rattling around overhead all night and through the pre-dawn hours would have once driven him nuts. But the fact that those helicopters are trying to prevent more destruction is actually soothing, and helps him fall asleep. 

 OUTLOOK

If the region can get through today without existing fires going out of control again or new ones igniting, then the region gets a brief reprieve,  

Winds should relax again toward evening  and stay fairly calm at least through Saturday, which is great. Some of the lighter breezes could actually come off the Pacific  Ocean instead of the desert. Those ocean winds will bring a little needed humidity, but unfortunately no rain.

 Plus, the nightmare is far from over.  Meteorologists say strong, dry easterly winds might redevelop early next week, and there is still no real rain in the forecast through the end of the month

A new fire started in Ventura County Monday evening, forcing some evacuations.  But firefighters managed to put a stop its forward progress  after it consumed about 61 acres. Thankfully, so far no houses or other buildings, and the fire is about half contained.

Another fire started Tuesday evening in the San Fernando Valley, but firefighters quickly pounced on it. So far, that fire hasn't spread too much, and it hasn't prompted evacuations and it's still largely under control.

Fingers crossed there. 

A very large wildfire was burning in Mexico, just south of the International border below San Diego County, California. While the U.S. is not immediately threatened by the fire, it bears watching. 

Videos:

Some dog videos in the mix this time. 

In this first one, I have to tell the back story. It's heartbreaking but ultimately has a happy ending. On the first day of the fire, NBC reporter Liz Kruetz interviewed a distraught man trying to reach his home where his two dogs were trapped as the fire closed in. "I literally rescued them off the street, they deserve better than this," Casey Colvin tearfully told the reporter. 

Firefighters rescued one of Colvin's dogs before his house was consumed by flames, but the other one, Oreo ran off. For several days, he worried about dog, though there were photos indicating Oreo was still alive, 

Then, the same reporter helped Colvin get to his destroyed house on Sunday, where he found Oreo alive. The reunion is joyous. 

If any of you trolls pick on this guy for his emotions, I hope the rest of your life is one of misery. The traumatized man represents all of those victimized and distraught by the fire. They're clinging to any good news they can get. Colvin represents them all. 

Click on this link to watch this gripping video, or if you see the image below click on that. Make sure the Kleenex is handy:  

In this case, a dog is rescued from the fire. The understandably frightened dog was trapped in the yard of a house in flames. First responders rescued it, and a photographer snapped photos. This inspired an outpouring of donations to help dogs and other animals who were victims of the fire. .  Click on this link to view or if you see the image below, click on that. 

In the next video, a passerby in a neighborhood rescues a woman and her four dogs whose house is on fire and whose car won't start, They braved a blizzard of burning embers to get out of harms way. The video is pretty harrowing. Click on this link to view or if you see the image below click on that.

A drive through Altadena, California after the fire. You can tell despite the destruction this was an absolutely beautiful community. If there were no fire, I'd live there in a heartbeat.  Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below click on that. 

 

California Deady Wildfire Nightmare Worsens Today/Tomorrow: "Particularly Dangerous Situation"

Yet another fiery scene from southern California.
The fires are forecast to intensify this week, and
more will likely break out under the onslaught
of additional intense, dry desert winds.

 The death toll in the California wildfires sadly but predictably spiraled upward and is now 24, as the Los Angeles area and surrounding counties brace for a new round of incredibly scary wildfires. 

Another "particularly dangerous situation" red flag fire warning has gone up for Los Angeles and Ventura counties from very early Tuesday morning through at least noon Wednesday. 

The particularly dangerous situation wording is reserved for only the most extremely dangerous weather warnings and is used pretty rarely. That wording was of course used last week in Los Angeles County, and we saw what happened. 

Here we go again.

The winds this time won't be quite as strong as they were last week, but that doesn't really matter. They'll be strong enough to either blow existing fires out of control again, or cause new ones to turn into instant firestorms. 

Says the National Weather Service office in Los Angeles: "Areas in the red flag warning..... will have a high risk for large fires with very rapid fire spread, extreme fire behavior and long range spotting."

Long range spotting means embers from the main fire land perhaps miles downwind, setting new, large conflagrations. 

The hot, dry winds off the deserts will affect Ventura County more intensely than last week. Ventura County had winds in the last go around, but they weren't as intense as they were in Los Angeles County.

Additional firefighting equipment has been deployed in the area.  Also, with somewhat calmer weather, planes dumped a lot of red fire retardant on fire-prone hillsides. They hope that fire retardant will act as barriers preventing flames from entering neighborhoods.

But there's only so much you can do when the wind if blowing 40 to 70 mph. 

Though Los Angeles and Ventura counties are most under the gun, fire weather warnings extend from near San Luis Obispo, which is almost up to the central California coast, all the way through San Diego County to the Mexican border. 

As I noted last week, these strong Santa Ana winds peak in the late fall and early winter and tend to diminish later in the season. However, these dry winds do hit occasionally in January.

The problem is the normal winter wet season has failed.  Southern California should have had at least a few inches of rain by this point in the winter. In any other year, it's too wet in mid-January to have any kind of severe fire risk no matter how strong the winds get. 

Long range forecasts continue to provide no rain to southern California, at least until the last week of this month. Meanwhile strong high pressure systems will continue to bluster southward through the Rocky Mountains, possibly for the rest of the month. 

Those high pressure systems in the Rockies are often set up the right pattern for the strong, dry easterly desert winds to blast through southern California. 

Climate change has a hand in this, of course.  California had two oddly wet winters in 2023 and 2024, which made vegetation lush. This winter, it's not raining in southern California like it's supposed to. All that dense vegetation dried out and primed the area for fires. 

That climate change is contributing to newly dramatic swings in weather from wet to dry to hot to cold, and that is causing new problems and disasters all over the world

Including creating those fire conditions that are causing so much suffering in California.  

National Weather Pattern Continuing With Extremes, Just Not Here In Vermont

Forecast map for today depicting patches of light
but rare August snow in the Sierra Nevada mountains
of California tonight or Saturday morning. 

 After our big August cool spell, it's back to summer, as forecast, with very seasonable, average temperatures for this time of year lasting for the next several days. 

Not so in other parts of the nation. especially out west, where weather has gotten pretty extreme, one way or another. 

Texas - especially West Texas and the Panhandle, have just gone through one of their biggest heat waves on record. 

That part of the nation gets hot, but this was ridiculous. 

Abilene. Texas reached 113 degrees this week, its all time hottest temperature on record. Several cities set new marks for the entire month of August, including 112 at Del Rio, 111 at San Angelo and Carrizo Springs, 109 in Sonora and 108 at Kingsville and Amarillo.

Meanwhile, that cold, out of season storm sliding southward along the Pacific Coast still looks like it will bring rare August high elevation snow to the Sierra Nevada range.  Some places above 7.900 feet above sea level in the high mountains might see their first August snow in two decades. 

In eastern Washington, blowing dust advisories were in effect Friday and Friday evening. Outflow from expected strong storms was expected to stir up dust from rangeland and recently plowed fields, resulting in the risk of zero visibility at times on some highways. 

Both new fire starts and flash flooding are possible in the mountains of California with this weird, cold system.  A flood watch is up for north central California, as downpours triggered by the storm could cause debris flows where there have been recent fires. 

As far as new and worsening fires go, at looks like Nevada is most under the gun today, with the risk spreading into Wyoming Saturday. 

This chilly weather system on the West Coast is forecast to be short-lived, with a return to hot, dry weather next week. 

New Mexico Continues To Endure Post Wildfire Flash Floods, Video Shows How Fast They Come

 A  gorgeous area of southern New Mexico can't catch a weather break.  

A motorist wisely turns around as floodwaters surge
across a road in Riuidoso, New Mexico las 
Saturday. The road was dry and clear three minutes earlier.

I told you back on July 4 about Ruidoso, New Mexico, which keeps getting hit by floods after wildfires in the surrounding hills. As of the Fourth of July, the denuded hillsides yielded flash floods and debris flows as downpours hit the area.  

Since then, it's kept getting worse. 

Says the Washington Post:

Ruidoso, a scenic town of nearly 8,000 in southern New Mexico, is now at the mercy of an enduring, double-barreled disaster. Two massive fires broke out last month along the mountains encircling the town, torching more than 25,000 acres, burning nearly a thousand homes and killing two people.

Then, eight times and counting since June 21, including Saturday, floodwaters have cascaded down those same mountainsides into the village."

The trees and shrubs that held the steep hillsides surrounding Ruidoso used to keep the rocks and soil up there in place. The fires removed all that. So now, as Andrew Mangham, a National Weather Service hydrologist told the Washington Post, it's as if giant plastic sheets have been placed over the mountains. 

Those "plastic sheets" are littered with teetering burned tree trunks and piles ash that start sliding downhill at the slightest bit of bad weather. Which means even run of the mill routine summer thunderstorms are setting off the flash floods and big debris flows. 

Flooding this past Saturday was probably the worst yet.   Rain Friday night and early Saturday soaked what little ground was left, then new downpours struck in the afternoon.  Ruidoso officials said prior to Saturday, the highest the water got in one main creek was 12.5 feet. Saturday, it reached 15.5 feet, so that must have damaged homes worse than previous events.

The video in this link shows what it's like, and is really worth watching.  Notice how fast the water comes up and crossed the road. Also notice the road above the water is dry. All the rain that caused this latest wave hit in the hills above. (I'm having you click on the link to the video rather than just display it so they videographer can collect the clicks and views). 

In the initial part of the video, a couple cars make it through, but afterwards, motorists wisely opted to obey the "Turn Around Don't Drown"  rule. The water and debris quickly overruns and cuts around temporary dikes built to protect property.

The video is a cautionary tale for anyone, anywhere demonstrating how suddenly a flash flood goes from not a big deal to big time dangerous.

The videographer of the above, Jesus Figuera, has a whole YouTube channel devoted to what Ruidoso is going through, and it's definitely worth checking out. 

It's monsoon season in the Southwest, which means the area is in for more downpours, and more floods.  It will take years for the hills around Ruidoso to recover enough to hold water and soil in place.

 

 

Big Midwest Storm Deserves Attention Now That New England Storm Has Cleared

Said it before and will say it again, when the National 
Weather Service home page is this colorful there's a
big storm out there. Sure enough a large storm is
beginning to clobber the middle of the U.S. 

 A huge storm that will have impacts at least as large as the one that just hit Vermont and the rest of new England, is ramping up in the nation's middle.   

Spoiler: We're not getting another big snowstorm in Vermont with this one

The big middle of the nation system is a classic, and pretty typical spring storm, but we shouldn't minimize it. This type of storm really causes a wide variety of nasty weather. Everything but the kitchen sink, really. 

A huge area from Montana to Wisconsin and south to western Kansas is under winter storm or blizzard warnings. 

Especially in North Dakota, Minnesota and Wisconsin, this huge spring snowstorm comes after a "Year Without A Winter." in which little snow fell and temperatures almost constantly thawed. 

Blizzard warnings are up for western Kansas, much of Nebraska and central South Dakota, with winds up to 50 mph north and 65 in Kansas. 

To the south of that, high winds and a big fire risk has returned to western and northern Texas, and parts of New Mexico and Oklahoma.  Winds will gust to 65 mph today amid very dry, warm conditions.  Blowing dust will be a big problem, too. 

This time of year, the type of storm hitting the middle of the nation often spins off some severe weather and tornadoes.

Such is the case this time, though the severe risk isn't as high or widespread as some storms have been this time of year. Still, people in some places in the central Plains and south had better keep an eye to the skies. 

A few severe thunderstorms and a couple tornadoes could hit later today in parts of Kansas, Oklahoma and north-central Kansas. A part of northwest Kansas could have giant hail or a tornado this afternoon and evening, and a blizzard late tonight and tomorrow. Go figure. 

Tomorrow, the severe weather and tornadoes shifts to Louisiana, Mississippi and Arkansas. Flooding is possible in the same region tomorrow, too.

Another typical aspect of this massive spring storm is its cold front, powerful in the Plains, will gradually lose steam. By the time it arrives here in Vermont and the rest of New England later Wednesday, it'll just have a few light showers with it. 

Also typical of this spring situation is that a new storm will probably form along the weak cold front somewhere near the Southeast or Mid-Atlantic coast. That storm will strengthen some, but it's still too soon to figure out whether it will come west enough to cause a lot of rain or other precipitation here in Vermont. 

QAnon Quebec Man Started Some Of Those Awful Wildfires Last Summer For Bizarre Reasons

Conspiracy theorist Brian Parè pleaded guilty to arson
charges. He set some of last June's wildfires in Quebec
to "prove" some sort of nefarious government plan
that he made up. 

 I'm sure you remember choking on wildfire smoke blowing down from Canada last spring and summer. 

I can now blame one particular nut job person for a little bit of that pollution that hazed out Vermont skies last June.

Meet Brian Parè, 38, who prosecutors said on May 31 and June 1  started 14 fires near Chapais, Quebec. about 260 miles northwest of Quebec City.

On those two days, hundreds of fires broke out across much of Quebec. An intense drought was ongoing. 

Most of the fires were sparked by lightning, and those strikes ignited the dry, vast forests of the region. The result was choking smoke blowing southward into New England. 

For reasons only Parè fully understands, he decided to augment the lightning and start his own fires. Two of the fires Parè set force the evacuation of about 500 homes around the town of Chapais.

As seems to be always the case, Parè is a QAnon nutcase. These are the people who were convinced Hillary Clinton and probably Tom Hanks were running a child sex trafficking ring out of the non-existent basement of a Washington DC pizza shop.

Anyway, Parè claimed on Facebook that the fires were deliberately set by the government to trick people into believing in climate change, CBC reported.

It's unclear why Parè started the fires when he believed the government was already doing so. 

Antihate.ca delved into Parè's social media posts and hoo-boy! 

Here's some examples, notes Antihate.ca: 

"'Our government and elite want it to burn," Parè wrote in a June 26 Facebook post, translated from French by Google. 'Not complicated. Since 2020, we are in a conspiracy of the new world order of 2030.'"

I'm not sure what Parè thinks is the new world order, but oh, wll.

Apparently, according to Perè, the Quebec drought that helped create the wildfires was not the work of climate change or random weather patterns. He explained: "It's NASA who controls the weather and our famous elites."

Parè also thinks that chemtrails are a thing, and he's also into a newer wacko idea called the 15-minute city.

To review, high-flying jets often create a narrow band of cirrus clouds behind them. Hot exhaust condenses into the cold air these aircraft fly through, forming the clouds. The wackos think these are "chemtrails," in which the government is seeding us with stuff to control our minds, or sterilize us for some reason or make us afraid, or........something like that, I guess.  

Haze from Quebec wildfires as seen at St. Albans Bay,
Vermont on June 5, 2023. A Quebec conspiracy
theorist set some of the fires, it turns out. 

The 15-minute city is a real concept, but not in the way that conspiracy nuts would have you believe. Fifteen minute city is an idea in which all urban amenities should be available within a 15 minute walk or bike ride. 

The weirdos like Parè think it's somehow a global plot to allow governments to control their population. 

I'm not sure how the convenience of reaching a subway or a bus stop within 15 minutes controls people like me, but I guess I think differently than these special people.   

 Pare has pleaded guilty to 13 counts of arson and one count of arson with disregard for human life, according to CBC.  He also tried to claim he set the fires to test whether the forests were dry or not. I guess he didn't think to dig into the soil a bit to see whether he came up with dust or mud, I don't know.

You know, I'm annoyed at Parè for setting those fires. And I've been bullying him pretty brutally here. But in a sense I feel for the guy.  I'm far more enraged at the proponents of these conspiracy theories who prey on the gullible, like Parè. 

Because those proponents aren't trying to help people like Parè. They're just trying to enrich themselves, leaving people like Parè as collateral damage that they don't care a whit about.  

I'm not convinced most of the people who promote all this QAnon conspiracy nonsense actually believe any of it. But there's money to be made by this, so they spread this garbage. 

Which becomes dangerous. What if one of the fires Perè set killed someone? But they don't care. Grifters gotta grift, right? 

Europe Having At Least A Lousy Weather Summer As United States And Canada

Large swaths of Greece, especially the island Rhodes,
are on fire after a persistent, record breaking heatwave

 You might have seen glimpses of extreme weather news from Europe in between reports of relentless heat waves in some parts of the United States and extreme floods and storms in other sections of America.   

To confirm, yes, it's a weather summer from hell in much of Europe, too. 

It's kind of the same story as in the United States. Horrible heat and wildfires in the south, storms just a little further north and east. 

Let's take a miserable European tour here:

GREECE 

A long heat wave in Greece has led to scary wildfires, especially on the islands of Rhodes and Corfu. 

At least 19,000 residents and tourists fled Rhodes as the wildfires tour through hotels and resorts on the island.

As NPR reports: 

"The fires struck during peak tourist season in Greece. And while visitors flock to the islands from all over the world, Corfu and Rhodes are especially popular with people from the United Kingdom."

Up to 10,000 British tourists are on Rhodes and many are still trying to get out of the country, but getting to the airport is difficult, never mind finding a flight out. 

NPR again: 

"Some tourists say they had to walk for miles in the heat to reach safety, and local TV footage shows crowds of people walking beneath orange, smoke-filled skies and lying on mattresses in makeshift shelters."

I was also more than a little puzzled when a couple airlines were still flying tourists into Rhodes while tourists who were already there were fleeing fires. 

ITALY 

Heat and powerful storms are the story in Italy.

The southern part of the nation sweltered in record heat, and at least four died in the resulting wildfires. 

Temperatures reached as high as 117 degrees in Sicily. Rome reached 107 degrees, its hottest reading on record for any date. 

Huge hailstones pelted northern Italy. 

About 40 wildfires broke out in Sicily.  The airport in Palermo was temporarily closed because of the nearby fires but has since reopened. 

The heat has turned the Mediterranean Sea into something of a hot tub.  The average surface temperature of the sea reached 83.12 degrees (28.4 C) this week, an all time record high. 

In northern Italy, the hot temperatures interacting with cooler air to the north set off severe thunderstorms, at least one tornado, microbursts and tennis ball sized hail or bigger. One hail stone recovered in northern Italy was 7.89 inches in diameter, the largest hail stone on record for the entire continent of Europe. 

SWITZERLAND

An incredible storm hit the city of La Chaux-de-Fonds, Switzerland and its surroundings northwest of Bern. 

The storm packed winds of 135 mph, which is the equivalent of a category 4 hurricane. Video from the city during the storm looked like such a hurricane.  

One person was killed, several were injured and the area suffered widespread damage to homes, businesses and other buildings. 

The storm was an apparent microburst, which a larger version of a thunderstorm microburst. Macrobursts cover an area at least 2.5 miles in diameter. Winds in them can reach 135 mph, so this Swiss event was definitely a very high end version of this phenomenon. 

There might also have been an embedded tornado. 

 

Nova Scotia: From Burning Down To Drowning In Epic Flood

Nova Scotia, Canada is the latest place to suffer 
through severe flooding. Four people are missing after
up to 10 inches of rain fell in a day. 

 Remember back in May and early June, when Nova Scotia was burning down, destroying something like 200 houses and sending smoke down the United States East Coast?

I suppose the "good" news is the Nova Scotia fires are out. 

However, there isn't any truly good news coming out of Nova Scotia. They've just had a flood that is at least as bad, if not worse the the huge inundation we in Vermont just experienced.

At last report, four people, including two children, were missing in the flood.

As Reuters reports: 

"The storm, which started on Friday, dumped more than...10 inches on some parts in just 24 hours - the same amount that usually lands in three months. The resulting floods washed away roads, weakened bridges and swamped buildings."

Rain continued on Saturday but is finally tapering off in Atlantic Canada. 

It has been a bad year for weather disasters in Canada. Says Reuters:

"The flooding was the latest weather-related calamity to pound Canada this year. Wildfires have already burned a record number of hectares, sending clouds of smoke into the United States. Earlier this month, heavy rains caused floods in several eastern U.S. states."

It seems like Nova Scotia, a beautiful coastal province that is a magnet for tourists, can't catch a break.  As NPR reports:

"'Some of the same residents that were impacted by the wildfires are now dealing with the flooding, Halifax Councillor Lisa Blackburn told NPR."

 On top of that, Hurricane Fiona caused extensive damage in Nova Scotia, along with Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland last September. 

The same weather pattern that afflicted Vermont with floods is essentially responsible for the Nova Scotia floods. That weather pattern is breaking down, which shifted the heavy rains associated with it further east, into Atlantic Canada. The fire hose of wet, humid air slammed into Nova Scotia. 

All these weather crises in Nova Scotia are consistent with climate change. The hurricane last September maintained its strength as far north as Canada because unusually warm Atlantic waters fed it. 

The fires in May were encouraged by a very early snow melt and record high temperatures during the spring, which dried things out. 

The rainfall Friday in Nova Scotia was probably enhanced by now record high ocean temperatures off the coast.  Warmer than normal air is more efficient at picking up moisture from those toasty Atlantic waters helping to encourage the extreme downpours. 

Video: Drone view of Bedford, Nova Scotia. Click on this link to view or click on image below: 

One More Really Wet Vermont Day, Then An (Eventual) Heat Wave?

Today won't be a day for enjoying the summer out on the
deck. A chilly, day long rain is underway in Vermont.
Which is OK, we still need the moisture. 

 Dark, rainy and cold for the season is the story for us as we got up this Saturday morning. 

This will be Vermont's big washout weekend day of the summer.  Probably simultaneously the worst and best weather day of the season. 

It's the worst day of course because outdoor recreation today in Vermont is tricky at best.   Temperatures will stay in the low 60s, a good 15 degrees below normal.  If it stops raining where you are for 10 minutes, consider yourself lucky. 

On the other hand, it's a fantastic weather day.  It's pretty rare to get a good, day long soaking statewide this time of year.  And, it's the second good widespread soaking with a week. 

Usually, it's hit and miss showers and thunderstorms during the summer months.  More often than not, those showers are widespread enough in the summer to give us adequate wetting, but not always. We really needed this wet week, because it was too dry before this hit, and we're in for what looks like another spell of hot, dry, weather. At least eventually. 

More on that in a bit. 

SOAKING RAINS 

Yesterday's rain in Vermont was indeed hit and miss. Some places got a lot less than expected, a few spots got more. It was a strange day on the radar screen. Showers and thunderstorms developed randomly, especially north, some with heavy downpours. 

They moved very slowly, if at all, and erratically. Some storms approaching from Canada headed south, while other areas of rain moved eastward or even northward.  I'm sure a few spots got TONS of rain, which slightly raises the stakes for potential minor flooding in those areas today.

So far, the most rain I've seen anywhere in Vermont as of 7 a.m. is 1.51 inches in Hinesburg, but I'm sure a few local spots got more. 

Today's storm is acting very much like a wintertime nor'easter. Except it's not going to snow. 

The storm is consolidating along the New England coast, and is flinging some occasionally fairly heavy rain westward all the way through New England into New York State.

In the winter, something called a deformation zone, a stripe of heavier snow, sets up well northwest of the nor'easter. This situation gives us Vermont our big dumps of snow for the ski areas.

That wintertime deformation zone seems to be setting up in eastern New York and Vermont today. Which explains why rainfall totals for most us, starting last night and ending tonight, will amount to more than an inch. 

This heavy rain seems like it will hit New Hampshire and Maine a little harder, so flood watches are up in that area.

No flood alerts are in effect in Vermont as of mid-morning. Forecasters are watching areas of especially heavy rain for signs of high water. So far, it looks like we'll escape with  nothing worse than ponding of water on some roads, underpasses and low spots. 

DRYING, HEATING UP

The upper level storm system that has been keeping us wet will gradually depart over the next few days,  to be replaced by a heat dome that will center itself over Ontario, parts of Quebec and extending into the northern Great Lakes and northern New England. 

A heat dome, common in the summer, is an area of high pressure that traps an area of hot air beneath it. These can lead to extended, record breaking heat waves. 

This one looks like it might only last a few days, but probably will cause some record heat in parts of Ontario and Quebec.

For us, it means a gradual shift during the upcoming week from cooler than normal weather Sunday, to near normal conditions Monday through Wednesday, then hot by the end of the week, with temperatures possibly reaching 90 degrees by then. 

This will shut off the waterworks. We might still see a few light showers Sunday, but that will probably be just about it through at least Friday. (Though there might be a few isolated light showers in the mountains Monday and Tuesday).

The new weather pattern is obviously bad news for those wildfires burning in Quebec and Ontario. They're really not getting much rain up there and the fires are still going. The upcoming hot, dry weather in these Canadian provinces will reinvigorate some of these fires, and new ones will likely start. 

For us, that just keeps the chances of more smoke attacks in Vermont and much of the eastern United States going for probably at least the rest of the month. 

Odd Weather Pattern Continues: More Rain For Us, Southern Storms Grind On, Canada To Bake Again?

Storm clouds approach South Burlington, Vermont late
Wednesday afternoon, creating an ominous look to the 
sky. The storm wasn't severe, just causing a downpour,
some lightning and wind gusts to about 30 mph. 

The weird weather patterns look they will continue for awhile. 

For now anyway, that's good news for us in northern New England, which had seemed to be headed toward a flash drought.   But we might have just been rescued from that scenario.  

A flash drought, to review, is one that develops within weeks. Most droughts take months to develop.

The weekly U.S. Drought Report comes out later this morning and I bet they'll still have parts of northern Vermont in some drought. That's because they will not have had a chance to consider all the rain we've had this week. 

And more is coming, so that will continue to help. 

Meanwhile, the odd pattern will continue to rake the South with April-style severe weather. Plus, a new record heat wave might be on the way for parts of Ontario and Quebec, with implications for the fires burning up there. 

A caveat: When the weather pattern is as crazy as it is now, forecasts are even trickier than usual.  What you're about to read is gleaned from various forecast by the National Weather Service and Environment Canada.  

Given the challenges of the forecast, it almost definitely won't play out exactly how I'll outline below. But it gives you a general idea of how lucky this weirdness is for us, at least this week, and how unlucky it is for so many other places.

First let's look at what's going on around here:

MORE RAIN!

Yesterdays' thunderstorms and showers dumped, broadly speaking, another half inch or so of rain on much of Vermont. The storms weren't severe, but at least they were bonafide, noticeable summer thunderstorms for a change. The structure on the one that passed through the Burlington area late Wednesday afternoon was beautiful. 

If the forecasts are right, we have a bunch more rain to get through. 

Today will be much more hit and miss than Wednesday.  Perhaps 40 percent of us will see a shower or storm.  A few lucky souls will get a quick downpour, and some will get nothing at all. 

The cut-off upper level low still lurks nearby and will continue to do so for the next few days. The next disturbance circulating through that upper level storm comes in tomorrow. 

It's looking similar to the one that hit yesterday, so that means another shot of widespread showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.  Like Wednesday, there probably won't be much rain around in the morning, but things will pick up as the day goes on.  Some thunderstorms might be a little gusty and contain small hail, but we're not in for anything severe.

If current projections hold, it looks like some fairly heavy rain might last well into Saturday.  There's even a chance there could be enough rain to cause isolated, minor flooding. How about that, after those drought conditions!

I'll emphasize, though that it still definitely looks like this rainy week will end up benefitting us much more that hurt us. 

It looks like things will dry out some next week, as warm air comes at us again, not from the south. But from Canada. Again. This is one of several instances this spring and early summer that our warmer air comes from the north.  Like I said, odd weather. 

This warm Canadian air has some unpleasant implications: 

HOT NORTH

Forecasted hot weather in northern Ontario and Quebec
next week could re-invigorate wildfires up there,
potentially sending smoke and haze like this'
back into Vermont. Photo from June 4, St. Albans.

It's beginning to look like another blast of record heat and dryness will settle in to central and northern sections of both Ontario and Quebec next week. 

Fires are still ongoing up there, and they also haven't seen much rain this week. I bet the fires will reinvigorate under those conditions. Worse, long range forecasts are starting to hint at another relatively dry, but possibly lightning filled cold front to pass through those northern areas in a little over a week.

That would make all kinds of new fires blossom, like what happened in the opening days of June.  Which is back for them, and bad for us, since new, big fires would open the doors for renewed smoke attacks.  

We'll keep an eye on it. 

That expected "head dome" as they're called up in the Great White North will help bleed some at least warmish air south toward us, as mentioned. 

Meanwhile, the pattern of stalled, upper level storm systems in the eastern United States  would continue.  Another one of those might form next week, but would get suppressed to the south by that Canadian heat dome.

That, in turn would cause the type of showery weather we've had this week stay to Vermont's south next week, at least for awhile.  It's still kind of a tossup as to which will win out for us, the warm, dry Canadian air or the cool showers coming up from, yes, the south. Backwards again! 

This next cut off storm would then keep the jet stream suppressed to the South, continuing their severe storm nightmare

STORMY SOUTH

As I mentioned yesterday, that jet stream, much too far south for this time of year, is battering the South with tornadoes, giant hail, destructive winds and flooding. 

There were reports of at least 10 tornadoes, mostly in southern Georgia on Wednesday. I don't know whether a derecho developed, but I do see two long, distinct lines of damage reports in the South, so maybe. 

Today won't be much better.  The entire South is under severe storm and flood risks today. The epicenter of today's action looks to be further west toward Oklahoma, southern Kansas and northern Texas. Some tornadoes are expected, and another derecho might develop in the region later today. 

Given the expected weather pattern through next week, I can't imagine the severe weather and flooding will entirely stop in the South anytime soon.

Smoke Attack In Vermont/Northeast Continues, Cough, Cough. Some Relief For Vermont?

A smoky haze enveloped St. Albans Bay, Vermont 
Monday evening. The smoke and haze from Quebec
wildfires is causing unhealthy levels of pollution
in much of the Northeast, including Vermont. 

It was a murky start to the day in Vermont and much of the rest of the Northeast.

Murky starts are common in June of course, if you have a humid morning.  But it's not humid today. And that's definitely not fog and drizzle in the air. 

As we well know by now, that murk is smoke from those fires in Canada.  Most of the smoke we're getting here is from dozens of fires in Quebec. 

Air quality alerts were widespread this morning through western and central New England, most of New York and in several other scattered areas east of the Mississippi River because of the smoke this morning. 

One complex of fires in western Quebec really flared on Monday, and that sent a particularly thick batch of smoke southward into northern New York.  Vermont was on the eastern edge of that blast of smoke, but it was more than enough to screw up air quality. 

Early this morning, the air quality index at a data site in Underhill was at 151, which is considered unhealthy for everyone. 

If smoke forecasts are right, the amount of smoke in the air over Vermont will slowly wane today, but not entirely go away. 

SMOKE SQUELCHING THE RAIN?

So the act of breathing won't be entirely healthy, and the smoke introduces another problem: Will it affect the ability of the atmosphere to generate much needed showers today?

Last evening, the smoke appeared to suppress the type of updrafts needed to generate showers, so they were much fewer and far between overnight than was hoped.

Without the smoke, today would be a classic showery June day in Vermont. A pool of very chilly air aloft is moving in. Strong June sunshine would heat the ground, causing updrafts and the billowy tall clouds that create numerous but localized showers. 

You know that drill:  It's sunny, then it gets chilly and sprinkly, then the warm sun returns, only to be replaced by a minutes-long downpour, then a little more sun. Rinse and repeat. 

Will the smoke in the air today once again tamp down on those updrafts, which in turn would make showers less widespread?

In their forecast discussion, meteorologists at the National Weather Service in South Burlington admitted they were a little stumped on this question. For good reason. 

As one of the South Burlington meteorologists wrote in their discussion: "It is worth noting that this is rather uncharted territory for many NWS forecasters across the Northeast WFOs having to deal with wildfire smoke for the first time in their forecasting careers. In other words, we are learning and adapting as the event unfolds."

The optimistic thinking for today is that smoke will diminish slowly from northeast to southwest just as the cold air aloft also comes in from that direction.  So we should see some showers this afternoon, but most places should only expect a tenth to a quarter inch of rain. 

A bit more rain could come Wednesday and Thursday. But of course those fires in Quebec will continue to rage. We're at risk for more smoke attacks this week, and possibly beyond that.

PAST SMOKEOUTS

The smoke we've been experiencing this week rivals two of the more intense smoke events that I can recall. 

The first was on July 7, 2002.  It had been forecast to be a perfect Sunday for weather. Sunshine, a nice breeze, low humidity, comfortable temperatures. 

Fires in Quebec had other plans. By mid-morning that day, haze was increasing, and by afternoon, the sunshine was gone.   . The sky looked overcast, but there was not a cloud in the sky. It was all smoke. The sun in the late afternoon looked like a faint pink dot in the sky. In the 2002 case, the majority of the smoke was aloft, so the air on the ground was only moderately unhealthy.

Another smoke attack on May 31, 2010 focused smoke closer to the ground, leading to a very unhealthy day. Visibility in much of Vermont was reduced to less than two miles in thick smoke and haze. 

The current smoke attack is more complicated than the two I just mentioned. The previous two hit during otherwise fair weather, so meteorologists then didn't have to worry about whether the smoke would interfere with rain chances. 

This one could well be longer lasting, too. Instead of lasting a day, this one could wax and wane over the course of several days.   Even if the worst of it doesn't last particularly long, we can expect many days this summer with haze in the skies, just as we did in May. 

Firefighters are battling the blazes in Canada, and assistance from other nations is flowing in. But those big blazes to our north won't go out anytime soon.

:Air Quality Alert! Chilly And Probably Smoky Week In Vermont, But Sadly, Precious Little Rain Coming

UPDATE 1 PM MONDAY

Maybe a little hard to see but the darker orange splotch
in the middle of this image is a forecast of smoke
making its way southward into 
Vermont this afternoon and evening. 

An air quality alert has been issued for western Vermont and most of New York,

Wildfire smoke from Canada is spreading southward, and will probably be thickest west of the Green Mountains.  

People with pre-existing lung conditions are particularly at risk. People with lung disease, asthma etc should at least be careful, and try to stay inside if possible. 

As of 1:15 p.m. I notice haze increasing in St. Albans, Vermont, where I'm located.  I'm also starting to smell smoke, and I know there are no fires burning near my house. 

Satellite photos show a plume of smoke heading south,  having just crossed the Canadian border in northwestern Vermont.

Smoke will also make an appearance probably everywhere else in Vermont this afternoon, too, but will likely be not quite as thick as in the Champlain Valley. 

The air quality alert remains in effect until 9 a.m tomorrow. Do note that more air quality issues could easily come back during the course of this week. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

There's some pretty chilly air in and around for this time of year, and that's not going to go away anytime soon. We've also in for what could well be by far the worst smoke attack from Canada so far this year.  

But rain? You know, the stuff we really need? Ha!  

We'll get some of that longed for wetting, but not all that much, I'm afraid. 

We're chilly here in Vermont, starting off the day mostly in the 40s, but some of the usual suspect nearby cold spots are pretty impressive. 

Saranac Lake, New York, can't seem to shake winter, judging from the frigid 27 degree low temperature on Sunday.  It had been 90 degrees there just four days earlier. It was back below freezing in Saranac Lake this morning

The summit of Mount Washington, New Hampshire has been experiencing snow and freezing rain since yesterday.  Snow showers and bouts of mixed precipitation should continue up there at least into Thursday. 

Down here in Vermont, we stayed cool and breezy Sunday on the far western edge of a  stalled storm off the New England coast. A few sprinkles popped up in eastern and central Vermont, but those didn't amount to much.  Pretty much anybody who did see raindrops received less than a tenth of an inch of rain.  

The northeast winds steered wildfire smoke southwestward toward the Great Lakes, so we didn't have any trouble with that. Hope you had a chance to breathe that clean air Sunday, because.....

SMOKE TODAY? RAIN LATER?

There's going to be a reshuffling of this state of affairs today as a reinforcing shot of chilly air sinks down from Quebec.  As it does so, it'll bring with it a dose of wildfire smoke. Unfortunately, the smoke this time will be both aloft, and at least to an extent, down here where we live and breathe, too.

It's kind of hard to know exactly how smoky it will get.  The air quality was great early this morning. Later this afternoon and this evening, not so much. There's no air quality alerts in effect in our area, at least for now.  But expect at least haze, and perhaps the smell of smoke later on today, especially west of the Green Mountains. 

This reinforcing shot of cold air will create lots of showers Tuesday through Thursday, which is great news. The bad news is these showers will not be soakers. Over the next five days, many places north of Route 2 could get a half inch of rain, with maybe a third of an inch or so over most of the rest of Vermont. Southeastern Vermont might even get less than that. 

As a rule of thumb, we need about an inch of rain per week to keep things on an even keel. This won't be enough.

At least we won't have any dry heat to really desiccate things, like we had during the heat wave late last week. 

It'll be downright chilly for June, especially Tuesday through Thursday.  Highs will only make it into the 50s in most places, at a time of year when it should get up into the 70s.  I wouldn't be surprised if a few spots in the Northeast Kingdom stay below 50 all day on Wednesday. 

It'll slowly turn a little warmer and a little sunnier toward next weekend. But this week and beyond, we could see easily see more smoke attacks from Quebec. The fires up there won't be going out anytime soon.