California Drowning: Flooding/Mudslides/Wind Taking Nasty Toll

Destruction from an L.A. mudslide after the extreme
rainfall over the past couple of days. 

Unfortunately, the storm and atmospheric river that just hit California played out pretty much as expected. 

In other words, incredibly destructive.  

So far, at least three people have been killed by falling trees amid ferocious winds in northern California. All of the state is drenched with southern parts of the state faring the worst.

The rainfall stats for L.A. are impressive.

Los Angeles had a two-day rainfall total of seven inches Sunday and Monday, the greatest 48-hour rainfall for February on record. In just those two days, L.A. had half the amount of rain it normally gets in an entire water year (July 1-June 30).

If not another drop of rain falls on Los Angeles this winter and spring (Too late! It rained again this morning) they will have had a normal amount of precipitation for the water year. And their 13th wettest February, all accomplished by the fifth day of the month. 

It's kind of hard to keep up with the damage reports. When you rake such a populated state with hurricane force winds, inches upon inches of rain on steep terrain, you'll see a lot of damage and a lot of problems. 

Los Angeles had at least 120 mudslides and debris flows with this storm. Rain has become much lighter and spottier in the L.A. basin today, but more soaked hillsides will probably give way today. 

The Santa Barbara Airport had to close due to flooding.  Some well-known, sometimes ritzy areas in Los Angeles area have been hard hit.  Early Monday morning, the National Weather Service office warned of an "extremely dangerous situation unfolding for the Santa Monica Mountains eastward through the Hollywood Hills and Beverly Hills area."

At least 120 buildings - most homes - suffered serious damage in the mudslides. 

 Two homes in Studio City were badly damaged by debris flows. Most of the canyon roads in Malibu have been shut down by mudslides. People on social media ominously reported seeing household appliances, books and clothing mixed in with the debris flows, indicating houses had been torn apart. 

Topanga Canyon was also hard hit and large parts of it remained under evacuation orders this morning.  

All five lanes on Interstate 5 in the San Fernando Valley were reported to be under water on Monday. 

Wind gusts in the Sierra Nevada and some other mountainous areas were especially impressive. Ward Mountain reports 138 mph, Upper Bull 120 mph nd Kirkwood, 106 mph. 

Pablol Point in Nicasio Hills of the San Francisco Bay area saw a 102 mph gust. San Francisco International Airport gusted to 77 mph. 

Two to as much as four feet of snow fell in the Sierra Nevada range. That's mostly a good thing, because snow pack so far this season has been running somewhat below average.

THE STORM'S FUTURE

Considering how big and chaotic this storm was, its future is looking surprisingly anti-climatic. It'll develop into a mid-sized storm moving from Colorado to Minnesota and eventually to James Bay, Canada this week. 

It''ll probably create a fairly medium sized snowfall with relatively strong, gusty winds in the northern Plains, but nothing that extreme. For us in Vermont, the storm will push some very warm air our way to close the week and begin the weekend, with highs in the 40s expected by then.

We might get a little light rain out of the storm, but nothing heavy.  A pattern change toward colder weather will probably move in for us next week. 

This pattern change appears as if it might also bring a relatively brief but very welcome spell of dry weather to southern California toward mid-month. 

EL NINO/CLIMATE CHANGE

As the Washington Post reports, it's hard to attribute specific causes with one weather event, but this massive California storm has all the markings of both El Nino and climate change.

El Nino is a natural cycle, while climate change is not.

The El Nino phase of eastern Pacific Ocean temperature changes features warmer than average water off the west coast of North America. This helps supercharge atmospheric rivers, those narrow bands of deep moisture that regularly smack into the west coasts of the United States and Canada during the winter. 

This particular atmospheric river was especially strong, and it stalled for a time in southern California, which helps explain the record rainfall.  

Climate change provides an added boost to the power of atmospheric rivers and El Nino because the warmer world adds more heat as jet fuel for storms. This adds even more moisture to the atmosphere to make the rain even heavier.

California over time seems to be headed into a boom and bust cycle boosted by climate change. Droughts look like they could continue to get worse and more intense. These droughts would be interrupted by ever more extreme super downpours. 

The state's growing population combined with climate change extremes have left California's infrastructure unprepared for both extreme droughts and especially torrential downpours like they just had. 

Sooner or later in the coming years and decades, California could face rain storms that make Sunday and Monday's event almost look like a pleasant sun shower.