Remnants Of California Storm To Give Vermont/New England Big Thaw, Ice Safety Issues Record Highs Possible

The already scant snow cover on my St. Albans, Vermont
property will take another hit as possibly record 
high temperatures move in for the coming few days.

 

UPDATE: 

The warmth over-performed in the Champlain Valley today as the high in Burlington got up to 50 degrees.

That's just one degree shy of the record of 51 degrees set in 1925.

Sunshine was able to warm the ground due to an unseasonable lack of snow cover, which contributed to the balmy day.

The warm sunshine and light winds allowed me to work out in my yard clearing brush for a couple hours while clad in a t-shirt, but no jacket or sweat shirt or hoodie.

What I wrote this morning still holds, but I will provide an update on this "heat wave" in a post I will release Friday morning. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

The hangover from California's immense storm continues as more hillsides gave way under the onslaught of lingering downpours on Wednesday. 

The death toll has risen to nine, but the storm is finally moving on to other parts of the United States, giving California a break. 

The storm won't cause nearly the effects as it did in California, but it will cause snow in the northern Plains. It's also creating a low, but not zero chance of a tornado or two in northern Illinois today. That's awfully far north for any kind of twister threat for so early in the season.

For us, the former California storm will bring us another big thaw, and possibly record high temperature.

It starts today with readings in many parts of Vermont in the low to mid 40s, compared to normal highs roughly in the 25 to 30 degree range. 

 Depending upon how things go, we might see some record highs by Friday or Saturday. 

I'm rating the chances of record highs Friday as low, as it would have to get to 53 in Burlington, 49 in Montpelier and 48 in St. Johnsbury to tie the record for the date.  Temperatures could get close to those temperatures Friday afternoon. 

The record high could easily fall on Saturday in Burlington due to a quirk. For some reason, Saturday has the lowest record high of any date of the year, 46 set in 2001. Most record highs this time of year are in the low to mid 50s. 

The forecast high on Saturday in Burlington is 51 degrees.  We might see a little rain especially later Saturday, but nothing heavy. 

This new thaw is going to create more ice safety issues for people who are into ice fishing or skating or walking on ponds and lakes. 

It's been yet another warm winter, so much like last year, ice isn't particularly thick on any pond or lake in Vermont. Lake Champlain is mostly open, though ice covers bays and protected areas. 

That's in large part to another round of very warm nights.  Reading in the Champlain Valley are expected to rise above freezing this morning and stay above 32 degrees until Sunday night. 

South winds are also forecast to pick up today through Saturday. That could cause ice that you think is safe on Lake Champlain to break off and float away.  

Ice fishing is not recommended. Sadly, the annual Islands Ice Fishing Derby that had been scheduled for this upcoming weekend has been canceled due to thin ice and the expected thaw. 

This is the second year in a row that ice fishing derby had to be canceled.  It was abruptly called off last February, too, due to unsafe ice. 

That bad ice can be deadly. Last February, three people died after falling through thawing Lake Champlain ice while fishing. 

Even if it does get below freezing elsewhere in Vermont during the coming warm stretch, we're going to see a lot of thawing on pond and lake ice. 

Lake ice in Vermont used to always be pretty reliable by February. I guess not anymore. 

WINTER AHEAD?

For those of you who are still pining for winter, it still looks like it will gradually turn cooler next week, with temperatures possibly ending up a little below normal by much of next week. 

Computer models are also disagreeing on a possible snowfall next Tuesday.  Some models bring a storm far enough to give Vermont a decent snowstorm, while others keep the storm well to the south, missing us entirely.

I guess stay tuned on that one.  .