Wednesday Evening Update Vermont Winter Is Back, Slight Increase In Snow Prediction

Still an amazing amount of open, ice-free water on 
Lake Champlains as of today, and remarkably little snow
on shore.  We are going to get a few inches of snow,
and subfreezing temperatures over the next few days
might manufacture a little more lake ice. 

It really was kind of a classic February winter day in Vermont today, which is a huge change from what we experienced this month so far.  

True, there's much less snow on the ground than there usually is this time of year. But at least the ground is white. For many of us, Wednesday was the first time this we had a snow cover since late January. 

The day also turned brighter and brighter and less cloudy - as expected - after the early morning's snow. The day featured that classic February light. A blue, cold light, but at a higher, friendlier sun angle than the dark depths of winter in December and January. 

Next up, we'll see another, bigger snowfall. More on that in a bit.

TODAY'S SNOW

But first, we'll take a final look at last night's snow. It wasn't much, but it still over-performed a little. The western slopes of the central and northern Green Mountains did the best, with three to five inches of fluff from Tuesday morning's little snow dump. Most other places had one or two inches, that's about it. 

Overall Vermont snow depth remains scant.  Even in the rather high elevation snow belt towns of Shrewsbury and Greensboro, there's only a foot of snow on the ground. Most everyone in Vermont still had six inches or less on the ground as of Tuesday morning.

The snow that fell early Wednesday had very little water in it - you could tell by how light and fluffy it was if you swept it off your sidewalk or driveway this morning.  Most places received less than a tenth of an inch of liquid water equivalent. A few places along the western slopes of the Green Mountains had between a 0.1 inches and 0.2 inches. 

NEXT SNOW

The National Weather Service has slightly increased the
amount of snow we can expect Thursday night and early
Friday, though as you can see, this isn't going to be
any kind of blockbusters snowstorm. 

The National Weather Service has slightly increased amount of snow due from the next snowfall, which is due mostly Thursday night. 

 Depending on where you are in Vermont, it will be the biggest snowstorm since either January 16 or January 7.  But that's not saying much at all. 

Generally, we're expecting about 2.5 to 5.5 inches of snow, with locally higher amounts in the Green Mountains. 

This will be a pretty low impact snowstorm, though calling it a snowstorm is really pushing it.  First of all the timing is good. The snow will pretty much move in after Thursday evening's commute. The heaviest  snow will have ended by Friday morning's commute. 

But lingering snow on the roads and remaining light snow falling from the sky will slow things down a bit. 

With that in mind, there is a winter weather advisory for the Green Mountains and a good chunk of the rest of northern Vermont overnight Thursday through Friday morning. Unlike the storm that ended up passing well to the south of us Monday, the forecasts for this snow event are much more consistent.

There's not much uncertainty in the forecast, so I have a pretty high confidence that we'll get what's forecast. I really hope I don't get burned enough to make me look like a fool for saying that, but I think we're good. 

Much like the light stuff we got early this morning, the snow we get Thursday night will be fluffy and airy. Easy to plow, easy to clear, not anything that will linger on the roads much. Temperatures will stay near 20 degrees Thursday night and rise into the upper 20s Friday. That's more than sufficient for road salt to work.

LOOKING AHEAD

Longer range forecasts have really backed away from the idea that most of the central and eastern part of the United States would be a little cooler than average through the end of February. 

Instead, following the pattern of the entire winter, most of the nation is now looking on the warm side through the end of the month. 

For us here in Vermont, it's so far looking like we'll miss out on most of that warmth, which will probably be centered around the middle of the nation. These forecasts are hinting at temperatures fairly close to average here in Vermont between now and Leap Day, February 29.

We'll see frequent small weather disturbances Friday through pretty much all of next week. That means we'll often see periods of light snow and flurries. 

There are some hints that we might finally have a brief shot at subzero weather for the first time this winter around Feb 24-25, but that's really iffy, to be honest.

By the way, now that we're into the middle of February, whatever is considered normal temperatures will now start to gradually creep upward. 

After Valentine's Day, the chances of super cold Arctic outbreaks generally begin to diminish. Though it can get below zero all the way to the end of March.  

I usually say in mid-February that the worst of winter is about over, but we are still waiting for whatever "worst" is.  A strange winter indeed!