Vermont Storm Update: Some Of Us To Get A Decent Dump Of Snow

The National Weather Service snow prediction map
updated this morning shows an increase in accumulation
from previous forecasts. The exception is the central
and southern Champlain Valley, where forecasts
are similar to the prior ones. 

 That little storm forecast to zip through Vermont tonight and early Friday isn't looking quite as little as it did.  

Some parts of Vermont and adjacent New York now seem to be in line to get at least a moderate sized snowstorm. Forecast accumulations for most - but not all of Vermont - have been increased a bit. 

THE SETUP

This storm still won't have a huge amount of  moisture to work with, but it will be very efficient at working with what it has.  

However, it will have a bit more moisture in the air to manufacture snowflakes than first thought, so that has boosted the expected snow amounts.

The reason there's more moisture is odd: It's because we've had such a warm winter. 

Large sections of the Great Lakes are usually largely frozen by now. This is the time of year when ice there usually peaks.

But now, those lakes are pretty much ice-free.  Just 4 percent of the Great Lakes had ice cover as of this morning   That's a legacy of a remarkably warm winter.

The approaching storm is moving west to east across these open Great Lakes, so it will pick up moisture evaporating from the lakes as it passes by.

The result will be heavier snow, especially in New York just downwind from the lakes, and along the spine of the Green Mountains.  

The mountains will force that moist air upward, which will help increase snow totals. 

We're looking at six to 10 inches of fluff along the central and northern Green Mountains with four to six inches across most of the rest of northern Vermont. 

The Adirondacks might block some of the moisture coming off the Great Lakes with this storm, reducing totals to 2.5 to 4 inches in the southern and central Champlain Valley. That's in line with previous forecasts.  

Everyone will get snow, though.  The Great Lakes moisture is just a piece of what's going on.  The storm will be very good at creating lift in the atmosphere, which can really help dump a lot of snow. 

TIMING/EFFECTS

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington has snow beginning by 8 p.m. this evening roughly south and west of Interstate 89.  It will spread through the rest of the state by 10 p.m. or so.

So you should be safe on the roads coming home from work tonight, unless you have stay late at the office. 

Road conditions will pretty quickly deteriorate as the evening wears on. The highways and streets should remain pretty snow covered overnight and well into Friday morning. 

The  bulk of the snow should taper off by dawn in southern Vermont and by mid-morning up north. Snow showers and flurries will probably continue all day here and there, mostly in the mountains. 

Since it will be a fairly fluffy snow, cleanup shouldn't be too bad. It also doesn't look like we have to worry about any mix with ice or rain with this storm. 

Smaller disturbances riding a northwest to southeast flow of air this weekend and early next week should bring lighter bouts of snow off and on through about Monday. 

It's a warm winter though, so you can't expect much.  Another thaw is beginning to take shape by the middle of next week, but it shouldn't be nearly as warm or as long lasting as the "false spring" we went through last week and weekend.