Groundhog Might Be Right For A Change

Dark and dreary and foggy around my St. Albans, 
Vermont house around dawn yesterday, Groundhog Day.
If there are any groundhogs around my house I'm
100 percent sure they did not see their shadow.

The famed Punxsutawney Phil, our nation's pre-eminent groundhog, I guess, did his Groundhog Day thing and predicted an early spring. 

The rodent might be a famous groundhog, but he's a crappy long range weather forecaster.

As the Washington Post reports, the series of groundhogs named Punxsutawney Phil have been correct over the years about 40 percent of the time.  That's worse than flipping a coin. 

Punxsutawney Phil usually predicts six more weeks of winter, not an early spring. So this year's forecast was a departure for him. 

But since the eastern United States really hasn't had a winter to speak of anyway, it makes sense that spring might be early. 

There's no guarantee of that, since forecasts for a time period beyond a week from now can be shaky. 

This year at least, Punxsutawney Phil has backing from none other than the National Weather Service.  They regularly release a series of outlooks out cover three month periods into the future. 

For February, March and April this year, these lean toward above normal temperatures for  the northern tier of states. The only part of the nation where there are hints of colder than average temperatures during that period is Texas.

For March, April and May, the National Weather Service continues with the idea of a warm northern tier of states and a southern half of the nation that has more or less normal temperatures. 

Of course, Punxsutawney Phil isn't off the hook. He could be wrong again. Those seasonal National Weather Service outlooks aren't always right. Again, long range forecasting is still very iffy. 

Besides, things might be different in Vermont than in Pennsylvania if for some reason you're relying on groundhogs to do long range forecasting. It was overcast, foggy and drizzly across most of the Green Mountain State yesterday for the 11th day in a row. There's no way a groundhog or anything else would have seen its shadow.

Which would mean six more months of winter, if you believe in this folklore. Then again. six weeks takes us just to mid-March. Here in Vermont, it's pretty much always still winter by the time St. Patrick's Day rolls around.