Nation's Weather Turns Toward The Wild; Vermont Gets A Piece Of That Too

There's little or no snow on the ground in many low
elevations in Vermont, like my yard in St. Albans. That's 
actually a good thing with the upcoming storm. More
snow melt would mean more water going into
rivers during the upcoming warm spell and rains.
Only local, minor flooding is expected so far. 

 For the past few weeks, wild, sometimes dangerous weather in the United States has mostly stayed confined to California, with their torrential rains and mudslides.

The quiet weather for most of the rest or us begins to end today. 

This week, the U.S. weather goes bonkers again, with widespread record warmth, a nearly as widespread zone of high winds and fire risks, and a little severe weather again. Oh, and some crazy temperature swings. 

We in Vermont will participate in some of that. More in a moment. 

BIG PICTURE

A strong storm is beginning to gather in the Plains today. It should consolidate Tuesday in or near Illinois before heading off through the Great Lakes and into western Quebec by Wednesday. 

Out ahead of the storm, a burst of record warm air will surge into a large area of the Plains and Midwest. Behind it, a very quick shot of Arctic air blasts in.  

You want changeable weather? You got it in this region.  Here's a sort of example forecast I found for Yankton, in southeastern South Dakota.

They're forecasting a high of 74 degrees there today, which is very likely an all time high for the month of February. Tomorrow, temperatures will be falling through the 20s into the teens during the day with some scattered snow.  But by the end of the week, Yankton will be back to basking in record highs close to 70.

You'll need to forgive the fine folks of Yankton if they get dizzy from these extreme temperature swings. 

All around this mess of temperature gyrations is a lot of wind. And dry weather. Fire alerts extend from El Paso, Texas north to Iowa and South Dakota. 

To the west of all this, winter storm warnings for snow are scattered through wide areas of the Rockies. To the east of the storm, severe weather and perhaps a tornado or two are in store for parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

A weak disturbance passing by probably created a few snow flurries earlier in spots across northern Vermont, but that was departing, and we'll end up with a partly sunny, mild Monday, with readings getting up into the low 40s.

Springlike Warmth

Things start to get interesting tomorrow as the warm air ahead of the storm really takes over. Highs will get well into the 50s, maybe close to 60 in one or two warmer spots. That threatens record highs for the date. The record high in Burlington, for instance is 57 degrees, with a forecast high of 55, so it'll be close. 

Tuesday night will stay very mild, holding in the 40s. 

Then things get a little weirder. At least for late February.

Before we go on, note that the forecast could change with this storm.  But what follows is the scenario that meteorologists think will happen in and near Vermont:

Waves of showers should start later Tuesday night and Wednesday with the storm's warm front. There might be a break in the showers during the day Wednesday. If that happens, it will get pretty windy, and perhaps very warm. 

The winds will gust past 40 mph in some spots, giving us the risk of isolated power outages and downed tree limbs. It won't be nearly as bad as those wind storms in January, however. 

Where winds blow downward along the slopes of the Green Mountains and Adirondacks, the sinking air could warm even further, so there might be some local surprises with high temperatures. 

This weather situation reminds me of February 25, 2017, where an approaching cold front caused the same sort of winds. The temperature that day soared to 72 degrees in Burlington, which is by far the warmest on record for the month of February. 

We will not get to 72 degrees with this one, but if the setup does turn out to be similar to 2017, I can see the Champlain Valley at least warming into the low or even mid 60s. Time will tell on that. If it stays cloudier and rainier than I think it will Wednesday afternoon, it will be a little cooler than that. 

The Cold Front 

When the storm's strong cold front blows through Wednesday night, you'll know it. 

It'll have a burst of heavy rain and downpours, fairly strong wind gusts, maybe a rumble or two of thunder. Then temperatures will crash. If you like drama, this is your kind of cold front. 

We're actually lucky there's not much snow on the ground. The unseasonably warm, humid weather ahead of the front, the showers, then the downpours would probably cause quite a lot of flooding if there were plenty of snow to melt. 

As it is, all rivers in the region should sharply rise Wednesday night, and a few, like perhaps the Mad River or Otter Creek, could reach minor flood stage. We'll need to keep an eye on that. 

Temperatures will go from the 50s Wednesday evening to the teens to around 20 by dawn Thursday.  The cold front this past Friday night and Saturday morning was similar, except it didn't have any rain or snow along it. So we didn't have to deal with a flash freeze.

This time looks different. There should be a little snow at the tail end of the precipitation early Thursday morning. And all that water from the rain should freeze.  That'll make things tricky on the roads early that day. 

Beyond The Storm

After a windy, rather cold day Thursday, with highs in the upper teens to mid 20s, another big warm up starts Friday. This will be another very quick coldish snap.  More springlike warmth, maybe with near record high temperatures, should start Sunday and last into next week. 

Of course, expect updates from me tomorrow and Wednesday, as there will probably be adjustments to the forecast.  At least the weather will be interesting this week, right?