Some Forecasters Worry About Potential Big Hurricane Season '24 But There's Caveats

Some forecasters are worries that Atlantic hurricane 
season of 2024 will be busy.  But that all depends
on whether forecasts stay accurate, and where
those eventual hurricanes go 

 There's been some rumblings in the weather news world about a possible hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season this year.  

I've got the reality in this post.  Probably good to know if you live in a hurricane prone area of the United States. Or even an inland area that can get nailed with severe flooding from an ex-hurricane that has moved inland.  

Vermont readers: That can mean us. See: Great New England Hurricane of 1938 and Tropical Storm Irene in 2011. 

The bottom line is that a combination of super hot water already simmering in the Atlantic Ocean where hurricanes tend to form and a waning El Nino has forecasters nervous. But not panicked. 

HERE'S WHY

First: The hot water. The near-record to record warm sea surface temperatures extend all the way fro the African coast to the Caribbean. 

As the Washington Post explains,  the area of the Atlantic Ocean where hurricanes are most likely to develop is running hot. At last check, this area is running 1.1 degrees Fahrenheit higher than any other year on record, says Philip Klotzbach, a tropical meteorologist at Colorado State University.

 If the above normal temperatures in this broad area continue, a disturbance coming off the African coast has plenty of opportunity to strengthen on its long journey westward. 

All other things being equal, warm water helps hurricanes grow. The hotter the water, the hotter the hurricane, unless atmospheric conditions somehow interfere with the storm's development. 

El Nino, that periodic warming of the Pacific Ocean, can easily create atmospheric conditions over the Atlantic that can muck up a wannabe hurricane's fight for survival. El Nino often produces stronger upper level winds over the Atlantic Ocean. Those strong winds rip apart thunderstorms that are the initial ingredients for hurricanes. 

Or a hurricane can run into that buzzsaw of high winds and weaken into oblivion as a result. 

The problem now is that El Nino is widely expected to fall apart this spring, possibly to be replaced by the opposite La Nina by summer and autumn.  That's the peak of hurricane season.

La Nina does the opposite of El Nino, tending to calm upper level winds in the Atlantic.  Which gives hurricanes "permission" to grow. 

Of course, it's still well before hurricane season, and a lot can change. 

Perhaps we might find increased levels of dust blowing from the Saharan desert westward into the skies over the Atlantic Ocean. That would dim the sun, blunting the warming that's now going on in the water.

Maybe the forecast of a dying El Nino is wrong. Forecasters say conditions favor El Nino ending, but it's not any kind of guarantee.

What matters most is where hurricanes go.  If you get a bunch of strong hurricanes, but they curve harmlessly northward and die over the cold North Atlantic without hitting land, then who cares?

The problem obviously comes when a strong hurricane hits land somewhere. There's no good way to know this early in the year where hurricanes will hit. In fact, we usually have no idea of a hurricane's future path until after it actually forms. 

WHAT TO DO NOW 

The advice for anybody living in a hurricane prone area now is to just think about how to fortify your property against hurricanes. Does your insurance policy cover all aspects of hurricanes, including wind damage, storm surge and inland flooding? 

Insurance in many hurricane prone areas is very expensive, hard to get and doesn't provide adequate coverage. Unfortunately, you might have to plan for that. 

If you can afford it, you should probably have a "hurricane fund" set aside that you can dip into to cover expenses associated with these storms. 

You have to think about transportation and lodging if you end up under evacuation orders, buying supplies to gird your property against approaching hurricanes, and money to cover repairs not covered by insurance. 

Also, think about where you'd go if forced to evacuate.  And what you'll need in your home during a hurricane if you don't evacuate. Things like adequate food that you can prepare even if you have no power, non-perishable goods that can survive safely without refrigerations. And don't forget stuff for your pets. 

The chances of a strong hurricane hitting a particular spot on the U.S. coastline is low. But the chances of a big hurricane hitting somewhere in the U.S. is reasonably high.  This year, those chances appear a little higher than in many past years. 

Also, ignore the hype.  It's true forecasters are concerned about the upcoming hurricane season. But the social media hype machine takes it to a whole unreasonable new level. I've seen things already from clickbait that "guarantees" massive hurricane destruction in the U.S. later this summer and fall.

Spoiler: There are no guarantees. 

Even legitimate weather publications are guilty of clickbait. A recent headline: "AccuWeather Sounds Alarm Bells: Super-Charged Hurricane Season Possible in 2024."

Then if you take the time to read the actual AccuWeather article, it's reasonable, accurate and doesn't contain scare tactics.  So take your time with these articles. 

I also can't part without bringing up my favorite target. Climate change.  A big reason why the Atlantic is so hot to begin with is because the world is warmer as we continue to belch greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. 

Ocean temperatures will always fluctuate, but the trend will be up, up, up as the years and decades go by. So this worry over super big hurricanes won't be one-off just for 2024.