Thaw Timing Is Hideous For Vermont Ski Resorts

Last bits of snow melting away in St. Albans, Vermont
Thursday amid springlike sunshine and temperatures
around 50 degrees. The thaw will intensify
today and Saturday, bad news for winter sports. 

 The big February warm spell we're having in Vermont is not only bad for ice fishing, as I mentioned yesterday. 

It's also terrible timing for Vermont's ski industry. 

We're heading into Presidents week, the holiday time in mid-February that marks the peak of the ski season. It's essentially the Black Friday of the ski industry. 

Traditionally, bases on ski slopes are at or approaching their deepest about now.  What was once the usual series of winter storms should have piled up natural snow to at least create the icing on the cake. 

Not this year.  

Higher elevation towns like Greensboro and Shrewsbury had less than a foot of snow on the ground. In some Februaries, snow depth in these towns is three feet or more.  

Valleys are even worse. 

Even as the thaw was just starting in earnest Thursday, there was absolutely no snow in most of the  Champlain and lower Connecticut valleys.  My property in St. Albans is only partly covered with snow now. Amid the warmth, sunshine and light winds Thursday, I did a little brush clearing wearing a black t-shirt, with no jacket or hoodie. 

Any low elevation cross country ski destination is screwed, as they pretty much have been all winter. 

The Catamount Outdoor Family Center in Williston, Vermont was weathering the lack of snow somewhat because until Thursday,  trails were firm enough for fat bikes. But as temperatures warmed into the upper 40s, the recreation center was warning those bike enthusiasts: "If you're leaving a track, please turn back."

So, Catamount will need to wait for colder weather to firm up the trails, or preferably, a snowstorm, the prospects of which are iffy at the moment. 

SPRING CONDITIONS

In Burlington, snowfall this season has amounted to 27.9 inches through Thursday morning. If this had been an average winter, there should have been about 52 inches by now. No new snow is in the forecast until Monday at the earliest, and even then, if Burlington does get anything it will be basically flurries, at least as forecasts indicate now. 

Back up in the mountains, snow making is even problematic now. Temperatures are forecast to rise above freezing at times even at summit level. 

 Through Wednesday, the snow depth near the top of Mount Mansfield had been stuck at 48 inches since  January 28. The depth retreated to 47 inches on Thursday, below the normal for the date of 55 inches.

The snow depth up there will continue to fall further and further behind average for the next few days. 

 The weather forecast statewide continues to call for near record high temperatures today and Saturday.  Most everyone will be in the 40s today, with low 50s in some of the warmer valleys. 

The heat wave should peak on Saturday. There might be some sunshine in the morning, and that could help boost temperatures even more if it lingers long enough. Even with increasing clouds most valleys should see highs exceed 50 degrees. It's possible a few readings near 60 degree could pop up in the southeast corner of the state.

We'll probably have a few record highs get re-written Saturday. Especially in Burlington, with that strangely cool current record high of 46 degrees in Burlington. 

It'll be so springlike that the warmth could add a little instability to the air, like in the warm season. That could lead to a rumble or two of thunder in southern Vermont when the showers move in during the afternoon. 

It's not like you can't go skiing and riding in Vermont over the next few days. It's just that it will be spring conditions in many areas. At least you won't freeze your butt off, right?

Last year was arguably worse. 

Every day except one in at ten-day stretch ending February 16, 2023  was in the 40s. February 15 and 16 last year had record  highs of 57 and 56. 

Climate change has made this type of winter warm spell more likely, so get used to it. Some winters will still be cold and snowy going forward, but the odds are tilted toward more thaws. The deep winter snows of the 1960s and 1970s in Vermont are a thing of the past, except for very rare exceptions here and there. 

BACK TO WINTER?

There's still a few reasons for hope if you are a winter enthusiast and aren't particularly interested in an early spring. 

Long range forecast continue to call for below normal temperatures here in Vermont starting in about a week. And it looks like that chill will probably last longer than that brief interlude of winter cold in mid-January. 

True, precipitation looks to be below normal, but under a cold regime, anything that comes out of the sky would probably be snow. Bad news for snow lovers though: We had questions about whether a storm would come close enough to give us a decent dump of snow Monday night and Tuesday. 

The answer to that question appears to be nope.  Most indications are that storm will pass by too far south to give Vermont much of anything. If any snow does squeeze out of this, it would be light and mostly down in southern parts of the state.

History is sort, of kind of. on winter's side too.  I'm going to take you back to February and March, 2017.

On February 25, 2017, the temperature reached 72 degrees in Burlington, breaking the record high for the month by a whopping nine degrees. Which is absolutely insane. I can't think of another example of a monthly record being set by that wide a margin. 

But a few weeks later, the Pi Day Blizzard hit on March 14, dumping 30.4 inches of snow on Burlington - the city's second biggest snowstorm on record. 

All this is to say, don't celebrate spring just yet.