Vermont River Ice Breaking Up Amid Mild Spell, Still Questions About Wednesday

An ice jam on the Mad River in Moretown, Vermont
Sunday. More ice jams are possible on other rivers the
next couple of days amid warm weather. Photo
via Facebook/Patrick Quimby

After the mild temperatures Saturday and continued balmy weather Sunday, at least for the season, the ice on our Vermont rivers is breaking up, sometimes dramatically. 

There were and are some ice jams around the region, and that state of affairs should continue the next few days as the weather stays warm. 

So far, flooding from the ice jams has been pretty minor. 

The worst ones so far is are along the Mad River in Waitsfield and Moretown..  Water behind the jam in Waitsfield rose several feet in minutes. 

The ice also re-routed the Mad River through a parking lot in town. So far, there's been no major damage and the jam is of course being monitored.

At last report, there was another ice jam along the Mad River downstream in Moretown. If the Waitsfield jam breaks abruptly, the added surge of water and ice could cause some flooding in Moretown.

An ice jam broke up along the Missisquoi River around Richford which sent a surge downstream. That flooded and closed the end of Boston Post Road in Enosburg. That spot is a perennial lowland flooding area. 

Also, a mudslide closed part of National Guard Road in South Burlington Saturday, but the road has since reopened.  

Warm weather today and tomorrow will keep thawing the rivers, and more ice jams are a good possibility, which could lead to scattered instances of flooding. Otherwise, the snow is melting rapidly and rivers have risen.  The snow depth near the top of Mount Mansfield went from 81 inches Friday to 67 inches Sunday, so you can see it's disappearing fast. 

Other than the ice jams, no flooding is expected today and tomorrow, though water levels will be up somewhat. We'll have to watch for at least minor flooding   Wednesday, depending on what a storm does then. More on that in a minute. 

MARCH WARMTH

Temperatures got into the mid-50s in most Vermont valleys Sunday, which was a little above forecast. That makes me wonder if today and tomorrow might get a little warmer than forecast, too. Rather than 50s, I think many valleys might reach the low 60s today. 

 There might be a couple record highs here and there in and near Vermont today and/or tomorrow, but most places will fall short of those records. The record high today in Burlington is 70 degrees, which is higher than most records this time of year. It won't get that warm today.  Burlington has a slim shot of reaching tomorrow's record high of 63 degrees.

Even if there are no record highs, the high temperatures over the next two days are normal for late April, so enjoy it while you can.   

Today will be breezy, especially in the Champlain Valley. A warm front passing by to our north was creating showers near and west of Montreal, but the only effect we'll have in Vermont is a few clouds. 

It still looks as if tomorrow might be a couple degrees cooler than today in the north, especially in the northern Champlain Valley, but it will still get into the 50s there. Elsewhere, it looks like more low to even mid 60s, with lighter winds and sunshine. 

Which leads us to what is still our mystery storm for Wednesday

WEDNESDAY QUESTIONS

The computer models have gotten their act together a little bit more with the projected path of a storm and cold front Wednesday and Thursday. The storm should pass close to or over northwest Vermont

The trouble is there will be a very tight temperature range from one side of the storm to the other. Just to its northwest, it could be cold enough for some freezing rain. Just the storm's southeast, it'll be near 60 degrees.

At this point, it looks like southern Vermont is in for some rain, with only a little snow at the tail end Thursday after the cold front goes through. 

Central and northern Vermont, especially the northern Champlain Valley, are still solidly in question mark territory. These areas could still end up experiencing just rain until the very end when there would be a brief changeover to snow before everything ends.

Or, the storm could feature partly or mostly mixed precipitation.  I'm hoping we know more tomorrow. 

The rain, especially if it's still warm, could produce some river flooding Wednesday and Wednesday night.  So whatever happens, there's going to be some hazard to deal with. 

BEYOND WEDNESDAY

Starting Thursday, the warm weather will disappear, and not come back for a long time. There might be a warmish day thrown in here and there over the next two weeks starting Thursday, but most days will be at least seasonably chilly. 

It'll be an active pattern, too. A small storm looks to come through Friday night and Saturday with some snow, maybe mixed with a little rain. Then, a larger storm is then possible next Sunday and Momday. 

 

Signals for unusual warmth, which could result in localized record
highs on Monday and Tuesday, continue. On Monday the warmth looks
pronounced across our area, and then primarily in central and
southern portions of Vermont and the Adirondacks on Tuesday as
slightly cooler air filters in from the north. As far as actual
temperature forecasts, will note there may be too much of a bias
correction with the cold conditions we`ve had over the last couple
of months. Some of the statistical guidance shows more widespread
low to mid 60 high temperatures than the current forecast indicates
for tomorrow; coupled with some of the dynamical models, greatest
confidence in these warmest conditions are in the southern portions
of the Champlain Valley and Upper Valley in Vermont.

Sunday Morning Clouds To Clear, Allowing Vermont Rapid Thaw To Continue. HUGE Question Marks Wednesday

Snow cover in my St. Albans, Vermont  back yard
during a sunny interval early Saturday afternoon.....

 The thaw is on, and it's impressive to see how much snow disappeared from my St. Albans, Vermont yard in just 24 hours. 

Most of the warmth yesterday was west of the Green Mountains and at high elevations where the warm air was really able to flow in on strong south winds.

 In Burlington, winds gusted as high as 49 mph Saturday as temperatures reached 50 degrees with sunny intervals overhead.  

Some of us experienced the remnants of what had been strong to severe thunderstorms in western New York. Here in St. Albans, I had a brief gush of particularly strong winds and a brief downpour last evening.  

Some valleys in eastern Vermont stayed in the 30s to around 40 as the south winds couldn't scour out the chill. The snow cover helped create a temperature inversion of shallow cold air, which the winds aloft couldn't overcome.

Springfield was really socked in, as the inversion created a dense overcast, fog and drizzle, They never got past 39 degrees The missed out in the periods of sun western Vermont saw. 

It stayed warm overnight, except in those eastern valleys so the melt continued. The first real ice jam of this thaw formed in the Mad River.  That river is prone to this sort of thing. A flood warning was up for parts of the Mad River Valley this morning due to some water backing up behind the ice jam. 

TODAY

.....and the same backyard view at around 9 a.m. this
morning. We lost a LOT of snow!

What the south winds couldn't do yesterday the sun will today. That is once the sun comes out later this morning.  

Looking at satellite photos, there's quite a few clouds upstream. That makes me less optimistic than many forecasts I've seen calling for a mostly sunny afternoon. I might be missing something, but we'll see.   

But in any event, at least some sun will come out, and that sun should break up any remaining inversion in eastern Vermont.

Almost everyone should even out in the mid 40s to low 50s this afternoon. It was almost that warm in western Vermont early this morning, but a weak flow of cooler air will slow the rate at which we'll warm up.

MONDAY/TUESDAY

There's our sunshine and warmth. Well, at least partial sunshine. It looks like a few clouds will streak the sky Monday, but that won't stop us from getting well into the 50s. Maybe low 60s in a couple spots.  It'll also be kinda windy in the Champlain Valley.

This warm spell has already created record highs in dozens of cities in the central and eastern parts of the nation.  We'll see many more record highs early this week. 

Here in Vermont, it'll be close, but probably no cigar.  Tomorrow's record high in Burlington is 70, so we won't reach that. Tuesday's record high is 63, and I'm doubting that one too, as we're still looking at the risk of slightly cooler air coming down from Quebec.

Still, the record high tomorrow in St Johnsbury is just 60 degrees, so that could be threatened if it gets a little warmer than forecast. And Montpelier's record high on Tuesday is also 60.

Lately, our warm spells have been over-performing, so who knows? Maybe we'll be surprised. 

WEDNESDAY

Speaking of surprises, the computer models are still at odds for Wednesday and how an incoming storm might affect us. One scenario is the storm going to our west, running up over central New York and heading toward maybe Montreal.  That would keep the warm air in Vermont until the cold front arrives Thursday morning. 

That would mean a road of heavy rain before the cold front and some possible flooding. Other scenarios bring the storm further south across New England. That would allow colder air to arrive ahead of the storm. That means at least northern Vermont would end up with mixed precipitation and some snow. 

So, we don't know if our brief heat wave will end Wednesday morning or Thursday morning. We also don't know what kind of weather we'll see at the end of our warm spell. The forecast I'd give now is not at all helpful for Wednesday and Thursday:  Rain, or snow or a mix with highs from the mid 30s to low 60s.

It's kind of annoying that we don't really know what kind of weather we'll have in three days, but that's the nature of March. It really is the most unpredictable weather month of the year.

Oh, and it looks like another storm might sweep through here Friday or Saturday with snow or mixed precipitation. That might be followed by yet another storm a week from Tuesday. Local meteorologists are really going to have to stay on their toes. 

 

The Big Vermont Thaw Begins, But That Doesn't Mean Winter Is Over

A windy, rainy morning in St. Albans, Vermont. The 
thawing is drawing us into the season of dirty snowbanks
and messy, muddy lawns. The clean landscape of
brilliant white snow is over, for now at least. 

Temperatures were either above freezing or about to be in Vermont as I wrote this not long after dawn today. 

Outside my window in St. Albans, Vermont, rather strong gusty wins are rocking the trees, and occasion rain showers are splashing my windows. 

A few pockets in the Northeast Kingdom were still near freezing, so I imagine there was a little ice in spots over there. But the winter weather advisory for that part of Vermont has been dropped while it gets warmer pretty quickly today. 

It's a classic gloomy, slushy March morning. 

REST OF TODAY

Today won't be the nicest day we've ever had, but at least it's not scary, like out in the Midwest. I'll cover yesterday's outbreak of deadly tornadoes in a separate post later this morning. 

Despite our relatively inclement weather - the clouds, the wind, the showers  - we have a decent shot of having the warmest day of the year so far. It won't exactly be record-breaking, but 50 degrees or so isn't bad.

The warm temperatures, the rising humidity, and the rain showers this morning and this evening will really get the snow melting. I've mentioned the following in earlier posts but it's worth repeating: The warmth and today's strong winds will likely crack and move the ice on Lake Champlain, especially away from the bays and coves.

It's no longer a good idea to venture out onto the ice. The frozen lake party is over.

There are no flood watches out in Vermont at the moment, which is obviously a good thing. The melting snow will make river levels rise, which creates the danger of ice jams, and flooding behind those jams. But those jams will be pretty few and far between. 

Not much rain is falling today, so that won't add much to the runoff. And we won't get any more real rainfall until Wednesday.  The snowmelt alone over the next few days won't really be enough to make all the rivers flood.  

Some of the severe weather from the Midwest will probably make it to western New York and Pennsylvania today with the threat of a tornado or two over there. It's part of that ugly severe weather outbreak I'll post about later today. 

Those big bad thunderstorms will weaken quickly as they head east after trashing areas near Buffalo. By the time what's left of those storms get here, we'll just have some showers, maybe some brief downpours and even the chance of a rumble of thunder this evening.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY

We might have trouble clearing out the skies tomorrow morning, but we should get some sun shining in the afternoon. We turn the clocks ahead tonight, too, don't forget that!

We should make it to the upper 40s to maybe near 50 for the most part by mid to late afternoon. 

The peak of the "heat wave' is Monday. It'll at least be partly sunny, and most of us should make it well into the 50s. I wouldn't be surprised if a couple low 60s pop up.

Tuesday might even be a couple degrees warmer than Monday in southern Vermont, but northern areas will feel the effects of a weak Canadian cold front that could drop temperatures slightly. That front factors into what happens Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY

We do know there's going to be some kind of storm Wednesday, but the computer models are still all over the place on what will happen to us here in Vermont. 

Until the past day or two, the models had been consistent on sending it to our north, giving us one last warm day before reality returned.

Then, yesterday, some models began pushing that storm right over Vermont or a little to the south, which would suggest the risk of a winter storm. 

I have no new clarity this morning. This thing could go to our  north, with just rain and maybe a little snow at the end with the cold front. Or, it could come closer, giving a cold rain with just a little mix of precipitation thrown in. Or, worse, it could turn out to be a horrible mix of snow and ice. 

There's no one scenario that's a stronger contender than the other. We're just going to have to wait and see if the models get themselves together as we draw closer to the event. 

It is only March. We will have winter weather again. Especially since many indications point toward a colder weather pattern again starting late next week and more or less continuing for at least a week after that.  

Friday Evening Update: Volatile U.S. Weather, Quick Forecast Changes Here In Vermont, Icy Overnight?

A tornado tearing up buildings today in
southern Michigan. More volatile weather
is creating the risk of additional tornadoes
over a large area of the Midwest into 
this evening. Photo via Facebook/
Michigan Native Photography 

We're doing a quick Friday evening update today because the combination of near record warm humid air coming up from the south, lots of frigid air still lurking in Canada, and storminess in between is keeping U.S. weather volatile. 

It's also making the weather change fast here in Vermont, and meteorologists really need to stay on their toes over this. 

First, the national picture.

TORNADOES 

The storms have already turned tragic. A mother and daughter died last evening in Major County, Oklahoma, northwest of Oklahoma City, when a tornado hit their van. 

The mom was on the phone with the rest of her family at the time to warn them to take shelter from the approaching tornado

The daughter was a a seventh grader at a local school.

There were 11 reports of tornadoes in the central and southern Plains last evening. 

This evening looks even more volatile. Tornadoes are possible from southern Wisconsin to northeast Texas, with northeast Kansas, eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas the principle targets.

Also, a tornado or tornadoes unexpectedly developed in southern Michigan this afternoon. Early reports are this twisters seriously damaged some buildings, including a Menard's. 

Additionally, ssome more severe weather is possible from western New York to central Texas tomorrow.  

Hopefully we do not see any more deaths from this robust early season severe weather outbreak

VERMONT

Ice accumulation map for early tomorrow. Areas of the
Northeast Kingdom and southeast Adirondacks can
expect areas of icy roads. The freezing rain looks
like it will be a little more extensive 
over in New Hampshire

We've got no severe thunderstorms or tornados in our forecast. However, yet another round of light freezing rain is in the cards for the Northeast Kingdom late tonight. 

 Forecasters have increased the amount of rain that will be coming through, so a winter weather advisory is in effect for most places east of the Green Mountains and north of White River Junction. 

Most of the freezing rain would come through between midnight and dawn. 

Those of you who end up with icy weather will only have to deal with slick roads. There won't be any issues with trees or power lines getting too weighed down.

Northwest Vermont will get a little more rain than expected too, but it won't freeze there. Southern Vermont will only get some light rain, 

The rain will tend to taper off during the middle of the day. Strong south winds are still in the cards for the Champlain Valley. 

High temperatures in the 40s to low 50s should hit by later in the afternoon, especially if we see some breaks in the clouds. Another round of showers should come through in the evening.

I'll have much more in tomorrow morning's post. 

Friday Morning Vermont Update: We're Still Getting Our Warm Spell, But Now There's Complications, Of Course!

The snow surrounding the shoveled paths to my shed
should disappear over the next few days. But will
it all come back later next week? Unfortunately,
that's possible. It's March in Vermont after all. 

Especially in March, forecasts of balmy weather in Vermont are often too good to be true. 

We're starting to see it with our upcoming warm spell. We'll still have some nice, mild days coming up. 

But trends are shortening the length of this spell of balmy weather.  And if these trends continue, some of us could end up right back where we started. 

Deep snow cover in the valleys will melt over the next few days, possibly only to be replaced at the end by a wet snowstorm. 

That's a worst-case scenario at this point, but preliminary forecasts for this coming Wednesday are changing. More on that in a bit, because we're getting ahead of ourselves.

COLD AIR DRAINAGE

Speaking of getting cheated out of warmth, that's what happened in parts of Vermont yesterday. We had a strange temperature set up. 

A few days ago, the forecasts for Thursday had highs in the low to mid 40s in the Champlain Valley. Instead, it was only in the mid and upper 20s for the most part. 

That cold, dense, shallow layer of cold air hugging the ground from an Arctic air mass in Canada had no trouble draining down the Richelieu river valley into Vermont's Champlain Valley,

At around 4 p.m., it was 24 degrees in Highgate, 27 in Burlington and Montreal was at 19 degrees. All those stations had north winds of 15 to 25 mph. But the cold, dense air was shallow. It was still above freezing atop Mount Mansfield. And the cold air at least initially couldn't get past the Green Mountains. 

While it was so cold in the Champlain Valley, St. Johnsbury, Montpelier, White River Junction and Springfield were all at either 46 or 47 degrees. It was just strange.

As forecast, rain, sleet, freezing rain and rain hit southern Vermont, but did not penetrate the cold air north. The worst of the weather was down in southern New England. For instance, I noticed Worcester, Massachusetts had at least 11 consecutive hours of freezing rain overnight. The roads must be horrible down there. 

It's the second time southern New England has had disruptive freezing rain this week. Albany, New York was mired in several hours of light freezing rain, too. 

Anyway, back to Vermont and the forecast:

TODAY. 

The mixed precipitation was moving out of southern Vermont early this morning. The north was just cold and dry, with temperatures near 20 or even a little below that.  Forecasters are insisting the cold air drainage in the Champlain Valley will end, and temperature will go back up to the low 40s by mid-afternoon. 

Those temperatures will be aided by a little sunshine north, especially near the Canadian border. More clouds will hang tough further south, keeping readings in the upper 30s.

TONIGHT/TOMORROW

An approaching warm front will set off some showers toward morning with increasing south winds, especially in the Champlain Valley. We might once again have to deal with a little more freezing rain early tomorrow, mostly in valleys east of the Green Mountains. It'll only be a little; enough to make the roads a mess but will not come close to creating issues with trees and power lines. 

But any drips and drizzles of freezing rain will quickly go over to plain rain Saturday, which will trend toward just light, scattered showers at most during the day. Highs will reach near 50 west and in the 40s east late in the day. It'll also be windy, with gusts to 40 or 45 mph in the Champlain Valley. 

I'll remind you again that the thawing and strong winds will probably cause ice breakups on Lake Champlain, so I wouldn't venture out there Saturday, or any day after that. I don't want to see anyone disappearing into the distance on an ice floe drifting away. 

A very weak cold front will come through Saturday evening with more showers. There's an ever-so-slight chance you could hear a rumble of thunder, which would be a sign of spring. 

SUNDAY/MONDAY

These will be the two nicest days of our warm up. It'll be in the 40s to near 50 Sunday. The day will start cloudy, but clear up in the afternoon. Monday should be the pick the week with highs in the 50s under sunshine. An April day in March. We'll take it!   

Between the warmth and a little bit of rain Saturday and those two days of warmth, we're still looking at ice breakups on the rivers, and the risk of ice jams, as we've been mentioning for days now.  

We're in for one hell of a mud season as temperatures will be above freezing from today through Wednesday. It might get near freezing in some areas on some nights, but that won't be enough to put a halt to the increasing mud. You need a hard freeze for that. 

Even worse, we had a cold winter, so the frost went down deep. The thawing won't easily be able to get past the frozen layer of soil beneath. Which means melt water and such on dirt roads won't be able to drain through the soil. It'll just add to the swampiness of what will inevitably become virtually impassable dirt roads. 

Yes, the frost heaves and pot holes are nasty on our paved roads and highways. That includes the road I live on. But I'm thanking my lucky stars I don't have to deal with a dirt road. Even my driveway is paved!

My condolences if you live on a dirt road. 

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY

This is where we get into the potential changes. For the past few days, we've been assuming these two days would be warm, perhaps record warm. Including sunshine on Tuesday and showers and potential thunderstorms on Wednesday as a storm goes well to our north and drags a cold front through. 

But remember that cold high pressure to our north that made the Champlain Valley so chilly yesterday? Well, another one will set up in northern Quebec. It won't be as chilly as the current one. 

But, it's beginning to look like that chilly air in Quebec wants to squash everything south. So, Tuesday might still be mild, but not as warm as we thought it might be. I'm still not sure what temperatures will end up being on Tuesday. Be ready for anything between the upper 30s to low 60s until we can get that forecast pinned down better. 

And that storm that was supposed to go well to our north on Wednesday? It might end up going right over us. Or even to our south.  That means a cold rain or even a bunch of snow might end up falling. Or it might stay warm enough for a thawing rain. We truly don't know yet, and probably won't know until Monday or even Tuesday.    

This is a really fluid forecast.

As I said at the start of this post, it's March. It's a really unpredictable month. As Vermonters, nice weather is a lot of ask for this time of year. 

At least we'll have a few days of decent weather coming up. We'll take anything we can get.  

Follow The Bouncing Temperatures As Vermont Freezing Rain Tonight Yields To Eventual New False Spring

Yesterday I began my March ritual in which I spread parts
of the deep snowbanks covering the gardens next
to my driveway back onto the pavement to melt faster in
the sun.  It's better than waiting until well into April to
see those snowbanks disappear. I'll have to stop this
work today and tomorrow, but will probably 
resume flinging the snow back onto the pavement
to melt in the sun come Sunday. 

March weather is usually confusing, surprising and all over the place in Vermont. That's definitely true this week!   

We started with subzero cold on Monday morning, followed by a shot of snow and icy roads Tuesday night, followed by a Wednesday that really felt like spring is coming. 

So much for that idea. It has turned colder, and will stay that way today especially in the Champlain Valley. More freezing rain is coming to parts of the state, followed by a huge thaw. We think.  

As usual, let's take it step by step.  

TODAY:  

Increasing clouds as that next wave of precipitation approaches. Highs will top out only near 30 in the central and northern Champlain Valley,  as that big, bloated Arctic high pressure in northern Quebec drains some of its chilly air down the Richelieu River valley and on into the Champlain Valley. 

 Highs elsewhere in Vermont will reach the 30s in the north and maybe near 40 south. 

TONIGHT

That big bloated, Arctic high in Quebec keeps trending a bit closer to New England for tonight, which means we have some more forecast adjustments. You might remember yesterday I said there was an unlikely scenario in which far northern Vermont would get either no ice or snow? Well, that's become much more likely.

So places like St. Albans and Newport seem pretty much off the hook for icy roads and such tonight and tomorrow morning.  

The further south you go the worse things will get overnight and Friday morning. North central Vermont, places like Burlington, Montpelier and St. Johnsbury, should be OK. They'll get a little snow, likely less than an inch. There might be a few ice pellets or freezing rain drops near the onset of precipitation tonight, but nothing really to panic over.

The problems really start to show up from central Vermont south. A winter weather advisory is up from the southern Champlain Valley south to Bennington and beyond in western Vermont, an Windham County over in the southeastern parts of the state for freezing rain, sleet and eventually snow. 

If you have road trip plans in those areas, you're going to encounter a rough time tonight and tomorrow morning. 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY

Friday will just be cloudy and raw and VERY March like. You know, grey skies above, miserable dampness, highs only in the 30s to near 40.  Overnight Friday and early Saturday, there might be a little more freezing drizzle east of the Greens,.

On Saturday, the winds will really pick up, especially in the Champlain Valley where gusts could reach 40 mph. Those will be south winds, so highs should get into to the low 50s, which would be the warmest it's been all year. 

Saturday's weather will end the Lake Champlain ice party. Many of us have had the rare treat this winter of walking on water - specifically the frozen surface of Lake Champlain. The warmth and the wind will make the lake too dangerous to be on, except maybe the most thickly frozen bays. But otherwise, the wind and the warmth will start breaking up the ice. Get you ice shanties off the lake while you can. 

Eastern Vermont might stay a little cooler, but will still get well above freezing. Some patchy rain will come through, mostly in the late afternoon and evening. The thaw and rain might be enough to break up some river ice, so we'll have to start thinking about ice jams.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

If you liked yesterday's weather, you'll love Sunday and Monday. Under mainly sunny skies, temperatures should hit the mid and upper 40s Sunday and get into the 50s in most low elevations Monday. 

Tuesday looks warm, too, but another Arctic high way up in  Canada might diminish the party in northern areas a bit by briefly dropping temperatures slightly. I'm not sure on that but we'll see. 

Early guesses are that a cold front will arrive Wednesday to end false spring. We might get one more warm day Wednesday as showers move in.

Although we're won't see much rain during this big thaw, the snow will melt so fast we will have to worry about ice jams and just general spots of lowland flooding along some rivers. We'll have more details as we get closer to those dates.

 

Vermont Transition To Warmer Weather To Be A Little Messy

Today and this evening's snow forecast.  A few inches
in the southern Green Mountains. Very little far north.
This is part of our transition to a warmer weather
pattern. We'll finally get a thaw, eventually.

 I hope early risers got to see the lunar eclipse at dawn today. 

I didn't quite luck out with it. Literally the only cloud in the sky obscured the view of it from my perch in St. Albans, Vermont. Oh well, it's a nice morning anyway. Although weird.

I say weird because temperatures were all over the place this morning. It was below zero again in places like Montpelier, St. Johnsbury and Morrisville. 

West of the Green Mountains, it was in the teens. As south winds began to blow, Burlington rocketed upward to 24 degrees, a 14 degree boost from a few hours earlier. 

We've now begun the transition to a warmer weather pattern. This being Vermont, there are some complications with that. Which is typical.  At least the iffy weather this week doesn't look particularly extreme. 

The trouble might actually start when we do get into the warm air this weekend. More on that in a minute. 

TODAY

The sunshine you might have seen early this morning will fade behind. The wide range in temperatures will even out later this morning and most of us will top out somewhere in the 30s. 

The trouble comes from a small storm that will send some wet snow our way. It will slowly spread northward across the state today.  And I do mean slowly. It'll start around Bennington early this afternoon and not make to places like Burlington, St. Johnsbury and St. Albans until early this evening. 

Also, the further north you go the less snow will fall.

Far southern Vermont - Bennington and Windham counties - are under a winter weather advisory this afternoon and overnight. That's because the initial thump of snow could briefly come down pretty hard this afternoon. And later, toward evening, there could be some light sleet and freezing rain.

Snow accumulation in the winter weather advisory zone will be two to five inches, with the highest totals in the southern Green Mountains.

That harder thump of snow, as noted, will slowly head north, but tend to weaken as it does so. We'll still see a good two inches of fairly wet snow in many places all the north almost to Route 2.  Some of the central Vermont Green Mountains might see three or four inches. 

Central Vermont might see some slippery roads for today's afternoon commute. 

The intensity of the snow will continue to fade as it reaches northern Vermont this evening. Places way up north like St. Albans and Newport will see less than an inch.

Later tonight, all areas could see some patchy freezing drizzle, so there might be a few issues here and  there o the roads first thing tomorrow. 

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY

I hope Vermont's maple sugarers are ready for this. Both days should hit the low 40s (some upper 30s in the cold spots) with at least partly sunny skies. 

This will start to erode the snow cover nicely, especially on south and west facing slopes that collect the heat of the sun. The March sun is strong enough that I noticed it was melting snow in sunny corners yesterday even though temperatures were only in the low 20s. 

But these two nice days won't complete our transition into our upcoming false spring. 

Some precipitation is coming at us Thursday night and Friday. But, as mentioned yesterday, strong, frigid high pressure will be temporarily building up in northern Quebec. That will probably result in mixed precipitation. 

Exactly how that plays out is still in question. But whatever comes out of the sky doesn't look torrential. It'll probably be heaviest south. More details to come.  

WARM WEEKEND

It still looks like it'll get into the upper 40s and low 50s Saturday through Monday. It also looks like we'll get some rain Saturday. Again, nothing torrential, but still.

The rapid thawing and rain will send water flowing into our iced up rivers. The ice will start to shift and move. This is when we'll need to keep an eye out for ice jams that could cause some local flooding. 

It's only mid-March, so the warm weather won't last forever. It's hard to say how long the mild spell will last. But don't worry, more winter is inevitable. Meanwhile, enjoy the upcoming mild spell. 

After One Day Of Vermont "False Spring," Winter Is Back, More False Springs To Follow?

The mild weather Saturday allowed me to start chopping
up the annoying thick layers of ice that have been on
my St. Albans, Vermont driveway for weeks.....

 We're getting a late start this Sunday morning, after dreamily recovering from yesterday's lovely hint of spring. 

The warm weather gloriously over-performed on Saturday. 

It had been forecast to start getting colder in the mid-afternoon north, but the mild temperatures lasted until a gorgeous sunset around 5:30 p.m. Yes, days are getting longer, too.

The high temperature in Burlington and Montpelier reached 48 degrees, the warmest it's been since December 19. It was a nice switch from a rather cold February. (Editor's note: We'll have the complete climate summary later today.) 

COLD RETURNS

Today, it's back to reality, as the frigid air flowed right back in overnight, as promised.  High temperatures for today already happened just after midnight, when the temperature was still close to 30. 

Early this morning, it was snowing lightly, but at the same time also kind of sunny here in St. Albans, go figure. 

The snow was part of a weak little disturbance in the atmosphere we've been talking about for days. We received a whopping 0.3 inches of new snow, so I think we'll survive. I bet most other places in Vermont also had less than an inch of fresh powder. 

....And I'm pleased to report I got rid of about 95 percent
of that driveway ice. Now, if only those 
snowbanks could disappear 

By mid-morning today, the skies were rapidly turning blue, and the rest of the day will feature sunshine and mid-winter chill with highs in the upper teens north to mid 20s southern valleys.  

We're still expected what might be the last spell of subzero cold this winter, at least in warmer areas like the Champlain Valley.

Most of us tonight will be in the single digits below zero, with a fair number of teens below zero scattered here and there. 

Monday is going to be cold, too, with highs in the teens to low 20s, much like today. Normal highs are right up there in the 30s. However, winds will be light tomorrow, and the March sun will partly compensate for the chill. 

WARMING UP, FINALLY, BUT......

After another frigid start to the day with temperatures near zero, we should make it into the mid-30s by afternoon under increasing clouds. We've been talking about a snowfall Tuesday night for a few days, and following a recent trend, the forecasts for this snow have been inconsistent.  

The latest models runs have most of the storm passing by to our south, leaving us with just one to three inches of wet snow.  Of course, there's a chance the forecast could flip-flop again and give us more snow than that, so we'll just have to wait and see. Whatever happens, it won't be a blockbuster storm. 

On paper, the weather looks mild heading toward the middle and end of the week. But a big, fat, Arctic high pressure system will lurk over northern Quebec.  When something like that sets up, low level cold air tends to bleed southward into our neck of the woods. 

That means two things: It' possible the lovely forecast for highs in the 40s under sunshine might not be quite as lovely. There's a chance some of us might end up cooler than that, depending on how far south that cold air can push in. 

Worse, the next storm coming along would be just rain, except for that stupid cold high pressure to our  north. We might be setting up for some freezing rain on Thursday. We'll keep an eye on that. 

But that mild spell would be our "false spring." Already, there's some mixed signals as to what happens after next weekend. Some long range forecasts mostly keep the mild air flowing, while others return us to relatively cold weather and potentially frequent bouts of snow or mixed precipitation after just a few thawing days that'll hit next weekend. 

It's only the first of March, so we know we will get slapped again with full on winter weather at some point before spring gets here. 

 

Windy Warmth This Morning To Turn Into Frigid Sunday/Monday Chill Across Vermont

A mount of snow partly obscures the view out of my home
office window in St. Albans, Vermont. I hoping
some thawing later next week restores the full view

So far, the forecast is holding up for one more shot of Arctic air blasting into Vermont, but - at least in the warmer zones - this could be the last spell of below zero weather until next winter. 

I hope the above sentence doesn't jinx things.

As expected, it's mild and windy out there, especially in the Champlain Valley. There, temperatures and peak wind gusts give you roughly the same numbers. The temperatures are near 40, and so are the maximum gusts. 

Some towns in eastern Vermont were still in the teens to lower 20s as of 7 a.m., as those warm southerly winds hadn't been able to reach into those valleys yet. But don't worry,  those of you in the Connecticut River Valley will see some brief thawing today as temperatures rocket upward. Briefly. 

Temperatures should stay in that low 40s range until early afternoon north when that Arctic cold front comes through. Southern Vermont will wait a little longer for the front, so they might actually peak in the early to mid-afternoon as our Arctic front comes on through.

A few light raindrops or snowflakes might get squeezed out of this front, but there won't be much. I'm seeing a band of light rain in New York State this morning with this front, but the air in Vermont is pretty dry, so that'll evaporate a lot of that precipitation. 

LITTLE SNOW/LOTS OF COLD

We're still looking at a patch of light snow racing eastward across New England tomorrow morning. The forecast is still a little shaky with this, as different computer  models have slightly different ideas on how much much and where. We do know the snowfall will be light. 

As of this morning, forecasters are going for one to 2.5 inches in southern and central Vermont. That amount should also hit areas slammed by this week's blizzard in southern New England.  I'm sure residents there are thrilled. 

Northern Vermont should only expect an inch or less. I'll note this forecast might change a bit by later today.

We're much more confident that snow will clear out to reveal a frigid Sunday afternoon for this time of year with temperatures not climbing out of the teens in many areas. As winds die down in the evening, we're set up for perfect conditions for a frigid night. 

Light winds, clear skies and a snow cover, plus that Arctic air ensure all of us in Vermont should be below zero by dawn's early light Monday morning.  Some places will be in the teens below zero. Monday should be bright and cold with highs in the teens and low 20s. Frigid, yes, but the strong early March sun should make it feel a little better.

I guess we can say March is coming in like a lion this year. 

WARMUP

The weather pattern is definitely changing toward a warmer one after we get through our two-day Arctic blast.  That doesn't mean we get a reprieve from wintry weather, but at least we'll have some thawing temperatures thrown in at times, and the maple sugarers can start their season in earnest.

It looks like we'll get a little snow later Tuesday and Tuesday night, but it's too early to talk accumulation just yet. 

Another system looks like it might throw some mixed precipitation at us toward the end of the week. But that mix at this point looks like it might trend toward rain as temperatures hit the 40s. At least hopefully! 

March starts tomorrow, so now it will keep getting harder and harder for temperatures to stay below freezing. The weather over the next couple of days will be harsh, but the worst of winter is over. 

More Wintry Weather But Very Little New Snow Coming For Vermont

Henry The Weather Dog takes a quick measurement
of last night's very light snow in St Albans, Vermont
before rushing back into his warm house

 Yesterday's series of fronts left us with just the slightest amount of new snow. Which is fine, since I've really soured on the idea of shoveling heaps of it. 

Burlington has just 0.3 inches of snow. Here in St. Albans, it amounted to 0.8 inches, in other words just shy of an inch. 

I'm sure some of the ski resorts picked up one to three inches to freshen things up a bit  But we're not exactly going through a big cleanup like post-blizzard southern New England continues to deal with. 

Some of us might see a couple more snow showers this morning, but it any snowflakes appear in the sky, it won't amount to anything.

For some of of us, especially in the Champlain Valley the high temperature today hit just after midnight before cooler air began flowing in.  Temperatures today will stay just below freezing. An exception might be southern Vermont valleys, which could sneak up to 33 or 34 degrees.

We've got another cold one coming tonight, as that seems to be our style this winter. By dawn tomorrow, most of us will be in the single numbers above zero, but the cold spots will get below zero. Those readings will seem mild compared to what's coming by Monday. More on that in a bit.

On Friday, strong end of February sun will get us into the low and mid 30s, which is about normal for this time of year. 

ARCTIC COLD FRONT

It still appears we'll have an ever so brief, sort of hint of spring on Saturday, but it definitely won't be all chirping birds and blossoms.

As it warms up Saturday morning, a stiff south wind will kick up, especially in the Champlain Valley. Winds there will gust over 40 mph. Which means it won't exactly feel balmy out there. 

The cold front should arrive in the afternoon, so we might see temperatures already falling before sunset. 

We'll probably will see some snow showers, with maybe a little bit of rain Saturday before the cold front arrives. Again, anything that comes out of the sky Saturday won't amount to much. 

As the cold air blasts in Saturday night and Sunday, a disturbance scooting in from the west might drop a little snow on us. But those indecisive compute models disagree on whether that would happen and if it does, how much snow we'll get.

For now, anyway, it doesn't look like the snow will amount to much more than an inch, but we'll keep you posted. 

We're definitely sure we have a late season Arctic blast on our hands. It'll hit just as March arrives, so it won't have the intensity of cold snaps we saw in late January and early February. 

Still, it'll be a shiver me timbers couple of days. High temperatures both Sunday and Monday will be in the teens, which is a good 20 degrees below normal for this time of year. Lows Monday morning will be well below zero. Early guesses are in the single numbers below zero in the Champlain Valley and southern Vermont hot spots, and the teens below elsewhere. 

Tuesday morning lows might be below zero too.

There's a fairly decent chance that in the warmer spots in Vermont, like around Burlington, the chill early next week might well be the last subzero temperatures until next winter.

Beyond early next week, the forecast gets hazy. It will warm up at least a little, There might be some sort of small storm next Wednesday, but that still has a lot of question marks attached to it.

 The computer models are still insisting on a true thaw beginning roughly a week from now. .That thaw would last several days if these models are correct. But, you've heard me say before I don't trust these long range forecasts, and nothing is changing my mind here.

I continue to hope for that thaw, but know that by the time we get to a week from now, that thaw might well vanish in favor of more winter weather. 

However, since we're getting into March, it's going to be harder and harder for temperatures to stay below freezing all day. 

After A Springlike Monday, Winter Returns To Vermont

Huge pile of snow an ice at my front door that 
crashed down seconds after Henry the Weather
Dog warned about it. Thawing temperatures
today will continue to sent ice  and snow
sliding from Vermont roofs

I hope you had a chance to go outside yesterday. It was such a relief to go outside without 15 layers of clothes on. Temperature in the 30s felt like hard core spring compared to what we went through this winter. 

And I have to give great kudos and thanks to Henry the Weather Dog.  He's just a little guy.weighing in at 18 pounds. 

We went outside yesterday afternoon to investigate just how warm it was getting.  The two of us were finishing up and were about to go in through the front door  of the house

A tiny piece of ice fell off the roof. Then Henry heard a noise that I didn't notice. He bolted away from the house. Since he was on a leash, he pretty much yanked me away, too. 

 As soon as we were far enough away, the entire roof load of ice and snow crashed down right where we had been standing by the door.

Both of us really could  have been hurt.  Good boy, Henry! 

That's just a reminder that there are still some big piles of snow and ice on roofs that could come crashing down, since it will be above freezing again today. You might not want to stand beneath one of those roof ice dams, or park your car there. 

Now on to the weather. 

TODAY

Henry the Weather Dog spent much of February like'
this, so he was happy for yesterday's warm weather
despite the close call with the snow sliding off the roof

A lot of us had a little wet snow and freezing drizzle this morning. It wasn't amounting to much and it will tend to taper off as we go through the day. I'm sure the weather this morning left some slick spots on untreated roads and sidewalks. It's still that time of year.

It was also mild overnight, which is a nice break on the heating bills. The Champlain Valley stayed in the mid-30s all night while the rest of the state was in the upper 20s for the most part. 

There's no real influx of warm air breezing in, so temperatures should stay in the mid and upper 30s today. A few warmer valleys could hit 40. There won't be much sun today, either.  No complaints here. That's still pretty nice for February.

That will be pretty much it for thawing for awhile. Daily high temperatures for at least the next week after today should mostly be near or below freezing. 

WEDNESDAY QUESTIONS

Frustratingly, forecasters are still struggling with what will happen tomorrow. A narrow band of precipitation will make its way into New England. Precipitation will probably come down at a good clip   for awhile in the midst of that band. Most of it should be snow, too. 

So who gets this slap of winter?   It's only a day before the event but the computer models are still struggling. At the moment, the snow band seems to be leaning toward setting up in southern Vermont.  

An early crack at guessing accumulations would bring three or four inches, maybe even five, to the southern half of Vermont. Central Vermont would get a couple inches and places north of Route 2 would see less than an inch. 

Don't be surprised if those  forecast amounts changes by tomorrow.  There's a chance that today's accumulation forecast turns out to be a complete work of fiction. Wherever this sets up, it'll probably come in right in time for the Wednesday afternoon commute. 

Beyond Wednesday, it looks like we'll stay in a wintry, active pattern. It won't be as cold as the first half of February was, but we're not getting an early spring, either. 

There's a solid chance of more snow Friday night from a mid-sized storm coming through. After that, several storms will pass fairly nearby through the rest of the month and into the opening days of March, but it's too soon to know how or even if they'll affect us here in Vermont.  

If you're tired of the snow in your yard, too bad. It's going to be there for awhile. 

A Rather Unpredictable Weather Week Coming Up For Vermont

This forecast weather map for this coming Wednesday
morning looks a bit frightening, with a sprawling storm
covering most of the U.S. Looks are deceiving, at least
for us in Vermont. Some precipitation might 
fall early in the week, but it's not definite, and if
we do get any, we don't yet know what kind.

 This is going to be one of those weeks where meteorologists might be tempted to thrown up their hands and say "You figure it out. "   

It's not that they're unprofessional or would actually do that,. But all the moving parts in the atmosphere are so jumbled that it's hard to tease out what we're going to get.

Overall, the best guess is it will be mostly relatively mild, pretty unsettled, but otherwise a pretty iffy weather week.   The forecast through about Tuesday is relatively easy, but after that, it's basically a flip of a coin

But, let's get into it the best we can.

In case you missed it, Burlington broke its long streak of subfreezing days on Saturday. After 22 days of staying below 32 degrees, the temperature briefly poked up to a pleasant 35. 

TODAY

It won't be quite as warm today. As expected, a weak cold front passed through most of Vermont overnight. It was in the single numbers at dawn in the north, with cold spots like Lake Eden getting s cold s 8 below. In the far south, the cold front never really arrived, so it stayed in the low 20s in places like Bennington.  

Temperatures will tend to even out statewide today. Highs will be in the 20s, with some low 30s south. Sun will fade behind some clouds, but it will be gorgeous day for skiing or other winter sports. Today's a great day to pretend to be winning gold at the Winter Olympics. 

MONDAY/TUESDAY

A weak disturbance should come in tonight to throw a handful of snowflakes at us overnight. You might find maybe a dusting or a half inch of powder on your car in the morning.

The day itself will likely be the hottest it's been since mid-January. That's not saying much, since it'll only get into the mid-30s for most of us. Another weak disturbance - ever so slightly stronger than tonight's - will probably deposit a dusting to maybe a full inch of snow in spots on a balmy Monday night. 

I say balmy because lows will be in the 20s to around 30. 

Tuesday will still be warm with highs in the 30s to around 40.  One note or caution:  I see a lot of ice dams on many roofs. Some of those will let go over the next few days. In many villages and somewhat more urban areas around Vermont, people park their cars in the narrow spaces between houses. 

You might not want to do that as heavy chunks of ice could fall. Also, if you can, try not to walk under these frozen Swords of Damocles. 

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND

Forecast weather maps for Wednesday morning look ominous. They show a strong, sprawling storm covering the entire middle of the U.S. and the Rocky Mountains.  Since storms tend to head east, you'd think we in Vermont were in for something really nasty. 

But it's not as scary as it looks. High pressure over northern and central Quebec will tend to shear this storm apart. Here's where we get into the "we have no idea what's going on" part of the forecast.'

Will that Quebec high pressure shunt the whole thing to our south?  Or will the storm come through, albeit in weakened fashion.  Will another storm follow on Friday and Saturday? If so, rain or snow or mix?

What will the temperatures be like? We know Vermont will be in part of the battle zone between warm from the south, and Arctic air to the north. Will frigid winter weather reassert itself? Or will we have more thawing? Maybe something in the middle, mild for February but not exactly warm?. 

All I can is stay tuned to this bat channel for answers we hope will appear within the next day or two.  

Burlington, Vermont Ends Its Longest Freeze In 11 Years

The temperature in the Champlain Valley of Vermont
briefly went barely above freezing, ending a 22-day
streak of continuous readings of under 32 degrees.
It was the longest such streak in 11 years. However,
me and Henry the Weather Dog won't be enjoying
the sunshine on our bench anytime soon. 

 As of 4 p.m. this pleasant Saturday afternoon in Burlington, Vermont, the temperature had risen to 34 degrees. 

That meant a 22-day long streak of below freezing temperatures had ended. This was the longest time Burlington spent below 32 degrees since a 27 day long streak of subfreezing weather ended on February 22, 2015.

Today's mild weather came just one day after Lake Champlain was declared frozen over for the first time since March, 2019. 

This year's streak of cold, freezing days didn't even make the top 10 for longest such stretch. Tenth place is occupied by there years that had 29 days in a row at or under 32 degrees.

The longest stretch of such nippy air ran 51 days from December 22 1976 to February 10, 1977.

It looks like the long subzero streaks are still going on in Montpelier and St. Johnsbury, as preliminary data shows they didn't get above 32 this afternoon. 

Today's thaw, if you can call it that, will seem like a distant memory by tomorrow morning. That tiny little swirl of frigid air diving into Maine today is also driving  a shot of pretty cold air into Vermont tonight. 

By dawn tomorrow, temperatures will be just a few degrees above zero or the most parts, with colder valleys below zero once again. Tomorrow will be nice, but a little cooler than today with highs in the mid-20s.

More thawing - at least in the valleys - is due Monday through Wednesday with highs in the 30s, except some low 40s Tuesday. 

Don't worry, although it's theoretically possible to have another 22 days of subfreezing weather this year, the chances of it happening are diminishing fast. Normal temperatures have begun their slow ascent as spring nears. That'll make it increasingly hard for afternoons to stay under 32 degrees 

I'll have an updated Vermont forecast in tomorrow morning's post 

Subtle Signs Of Spring? A Little More Snow Northern Vermont As Temperatures Creep Up To Near Freezing

Even if we get a bit of a thaw early next week, I don't 
think we'll be enjoying the springlike weather
on our back deck. It had also once again started
to snow when I took this pic this morning. 

For a couple days now, I've been watching forecasts of this tiny, but kind of intense upper level low and pool of cold air diving south from eastern Quebec toward Maine. 

This weird little thing that makes me think of a bowling ball on weather maps doesn't have much moisture, so it's not an immense storm. But it will probably bring snow squalls, gusty winds and generally unpleasantness to northern Maine. 

For us in Vermont, we're still going to  have a splendid weekend for outdoor winter sports with comfortable temperatures and plenty of snow on the ground.

But the odd thing in Maine will bring us some subtle twists and turns you might or might not notice. But they're fascinating for odd weather geeks like me.

Our Maine bowling ball helped create a sort of pseudo warm front heading toward us in Vermont.  It's a very mini version of this past Tuesday, when a burst of mild air coming at us from the west dumped a quick several inches of snow on Vermont. 

Sorry, snow lovers, this time, there's no quick fresh big dump of powder today.   Snow haters are bummed, too, since this set up is giving parts of northern and central Vermont some unexpected light snow this morning.  

Forecasts from last night called for isolated morning flurries today.  But this is  more than that. It was snowing here in St. Albans as I wrote this around 8 a.m, and we'd already piled up  half inch of new snow.

It turns out some of us, but not everyone in northern Vermont might get an inch of snow out of this before it heads out to give us a partly sunny afternoon. I wouldn't be surprised to see a report or two of two inches of fluff in the northern Green Mountains. 

WARMER AFTERNOON?

Since I'm calling this a mini-warm front, parts of the Champlain Valley and the valley floors of southern Vermont might get a degree or two warmer today than originally forecast. It won't be enough for you to really notice, except that it could end a streak of weather we haven't seen in 11 years.   

The National Weather Service is going for a high today of 33 degrees in Burlington. If that happens, it'll end a string of 22 consecutive below freezing days.  That would be the longest streak since 2015 and one of the 20 top longest periods on record where the temperatures stayed at or below 32 degrees. 

That tiny little bowling ball of cold air spinning southward across Maine will send a mini-cold front through Vermont later today and this evening.   That will get us back, down into the single digits tonight, with more below zero readings in the cold spots.

It also means we'll be a touch cooler tomorrow with highs in the mid and upper 20s

SIGNS OF SPRING?

If that lineup of consecutive subfreezing days doesn't end today, it will come to a close Monday with a high in the upper 30s.  Tuesday, the warmth peaks afternoon highs get to within a few degrees of 40 under partly to mostly cloudy skies. 

After the subzero cold of the start of this month, Tuesday will feel like a beach day in June. In any event, it will be the hottest day since January 14. 

We also have some other signs of spring that aren't quite as pleasant. 

The first doesn't involve us in Vermont but it's worth noting. As winter wanes, you start getting surges of warm, humid air coming off the Gulf of Mexico and enveloping the Gulf Coast states starting in mid-February or so. Meanwhile, winter continues to sent cold fronts southward.

The result is the first outbreaks of big thunderstorms and tornadoes. The severe weather season is staring. Right on schedule, severe thunderstorms and maybe a few tornadoes are in the forecast along the Gulf Coast today and tomorrow. 

Another sign of spring as weather forecasting, always dicey as we well know, gets trickier.  The atmosphere kind of wants to flip into a more springlike pattern, but the forces of winter don't want to give up. 

Right now we're in that sort of dilemma. Warm air wants to come up toward us in New England later in the week. But Arctic cold still has its sights on us. We're in a classic battleground. 

As for what kind of weather we'll get in the second half of the week, I'm just throwing my hands up at this point. A couple storms might want to try to make a run at us. But the storms could  fade before they get here. Or not fade, leaving us the question of whether we get snow or a mix. And if so, how much. 

If you have outdoor plans for the second half of next week, sorry, I can't help you. At least not yet. 

Thursday Morning Vermont Update: Windy Thaw Friday, But Icy Risk By Saturday Night

After the overnight snow, it got quite foggy here in 
St. Albans, Vermont yesterday. Low clouds and fog
this morning are forecast to break up for some
sun. Then we have to messy storms to deal with. 

 I hope you enjoyed the dense fog amid the fresh snow yesterday in Vermont. Most places received between 1.5 and 4.5 inches of snow. 

There were, as usual, a few hot spots of deeper snow. Chelsea had six inches and nearby Tunbridge clocked in at 5.5 inches. Shrewsbury, high up in Rutland County clocked in with 5.4 inches. 

For some reason, the area around Burlington also got a little more than most people, with about five inches. 

Despite the patches of flurries and low clouds and fog and maybe even a few drops of freezing drizzle this morning, today is going to be a nice one. Eventually. I hope. Meteorologists are insisting some sunshine should break out this afternoon and temperatures should rise into the mid-30s for the most part.

Enjoy it, because it's going to turn nasty again.

FRIDAY

The first wave of annoying weather will come through tomorrow. It'll be especially bothersome for winter sports types who want to keep the snow around.

 Light rain will start in the morning and continue through the day. There might be a few pockets of freezing rain to start the day east of the Green Mountains, but it won't be widespread and won't last long. 

West of the Green Mountains, south winds will also pick up on Friday, gusting as high as 40 mph. 

Most of us - even those of you in the high elevations - should get into the 40s.  A couple spots might threaten the 50 degree mark. 

We're only going to get maybe a tenth to a quarter inch of rain out of this, so the flood threat is pretty low. There might be some rises and rivers and streams. We'll have to watch for some ice breaking up in those rivers, because of the threat of ice jams. 

The snow is deep enough in high elevations so that you'll only lose some of it. The bulk of it should remain in place. 

But overall, the threat is fairly low, since the rain will be light. A cold front will drop temperatures into the upper 20s to low 30s Friday night, which would virtually shut off the thawing.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY

There are two storms with this supposed January thaw, the one we talked about on Friday and another Saturday into Sunday. The forecast for the second storm keeps getting colder.  

Forecasts from a couple days ago suggested this second storm would be mostly in the form of rain. As of this morning, we're not so sure. 

Each round of computer models have been trending colder with the second storm. Not cold enough to give us a nice "recovery" snowstorm after the Friday thaw, unfortunately. Instead, we're looking at another dose of mixed precipitation. 

The Friday storm will flop a weak cold front down from Quebec, giving us slightly colder air. The main storm will start to go up to the Great Lakes, as previously forecast. Also, as previously expected, a new storm is scheduled to start forming during the middle of this near the New England coast. 

This will help cut off the movement of warm air northward toward us. 

For now, the forecast calls for mixed precipitation to start Saturday afternoon and go on into the night. It might be a situation of a mix to rain to a mix and snow again on Sunday.

The details of this are still TBA, so stay tuned for updates, especially if you plan to drive anywhere Saturday night. As it stands now the best chances for any snow accumulation would be right near the Canadian border. The best chances for freezing rain would be mainly east of the Green Mountains north of Route 4 and maybe the far northern Champlain Valley. The Adirondacks of New York would also be  at risk for ice.

It still looks like many if not most of us will see an interval of plain rain somewhere in the middle of all that. But we'll need to pay attention to any further shifts toward a colder forecast. 

Whatever happens Saturday night and Sunday, we have some good news for those who hate intense cold.

A return to Arctic weather has been postponed a bit. The first half of next week should be relatively mild with highs mostly in the 28 to 36 degree range. Somewhat colder than average air should then arrive for the second half of next week. But even that shouldn't be too intense.

The real frigid air is now looking like it might not get here until around January 19 or 20. That date is so far away that I expect the forecast will get some revisions before we get to those dates.   

Wednesday Morning: Cleaning Up The Snow Ahead Of Rain Then Maybe A Mess By Sunday?

Traffic cam grab of Route 7 in Ferrisburgh, Vermont this
morning shows that commuters had a pretty view
with wet snow clinging to the branches of the trees.

The bulk of last night's storm was done as of 8 a.m. this morning, but there were still lots of patches of light snow and freezing drizzle around. That state of affairs will continue most of the day. 

Temperatures were hovering within a few degrees either side of 30 early this morning, and will only  make it into the low  to mid 30s this afternoon. 

Traffic cameras as of 8:15 a.m. showed the main roads had been pretty much cleared. Some still had some slush on them, but the Interstates were generally just wet with small amounts of slush. 

I noticed ice on the trees in the background in traffic cameras in far southern Vermont, so they clearly got a little freezing rain.  That adds a little bit of adventure to those on the road in that neck of the woods. 

In general, those places that had mostly snow had a two to four inch little dump. My place in St. Albans had 3.5 inches. I saw several reports in the 2.5 to 3.5 inch range, with a few spots like Shrewsbury up to 4 inches. We'll have a full accounting of the totals later, I'm sure. 

The snow is definitely wetter and heavier than the fluff we got Monday and Monday night. You'll have to work a little to shovel your driveway or walkway. 

It's striking to see the differences in snow cover in Vermont now. In Bennington, the ground is practically bare, with definitely less than an inch of snow on the ground. By the time you get up to say, Route 108 in Stowe, there's a very decent snow cover. 

The amount of snow on the ground is going to shift in the coming days, with an initial thaw, then some uncertainty toward Sunday. 

Let's take it piece by piece.

TODAY/TONIGHT

As mentioned, today will be a somewhat gloomy January day with an overcast and patches of light snow and freezing drizzle. Or just plain drizzle in the warm spots. Patches of snow and freezing drizzle will probably continue into tonight. 

As it gets chillier tonight, expect road conditions to deteriorate some.

THURSDAY

A rather nice day for January. Early patches of flurries or freezing drizzle will yield to some sunshine, and temperatures will get will into the 30s.  Aside from some icy spots on the roads early in the day, we should be just "foine!" It'll be a good day to get out there and chop ice off your driveway or sidewalk. 

FRIDAY

The first of two storms will go by well to our west. Here's where our thaw will peak as many of us get into the 40s. Since the storm won't be all that strong and so far west of here, it looks like rainfall will be pretty light. At this point, I'd expect maybe a tenth to a quarter inch of rain.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY

This one is still looking kinda complicated. This will be the strongest storm of the bunch, though not super extreme. 

It looks like s double-barreled sort of arrangement with the original storm heading into the Great Lakes Saturday and Saturday night. While that's happening, a new storm is forecast to form near southeasternNew England, in tandem with or Great Lakes storm. 

Things in Vermont will probably start off as rain, but will this storm end up being mostly rain, or a mix of ice, rain and snow? It mostly depends on how strong the New England piece of this gets. If the Great Lakes end of things stays predominate, then we will all have mostly rain. If the New England one takes charge, then all bets are off.

I guess we'll have to stay tuned.

BEYOND SUNDAY

As I've been advertising, we're back to a colder pattern after the weekend storm goes by. But the computer models - at least for now - have been backing off on how cold it will get.  We just might mostly escape true Arctic cold.  

We've known for awhile that the few days after the weekend storm would be just seasonably cold, and it still looks that way in the forecasts.  Actually, next Tuesday and Wednesday look like we'll have a shot at slightly milder than normal January air. 

I'm going to warn you here of a little hype you might see, especially on line.  I noticed a few computer models give us a blockbuster of a nor'easter on the weekend of January 17-18.  A few of the more aggressive social media weather nerds will certainly hop on this today to alarm you into clicking on their sites. You know, revenue. 

It's nearly impossible to forecast a nor'easter accurately this far in advance. Nor'easters can definitely happen in January, that's for sure. Winter is their favorite time of year, after all. 

This morning's run of the American model gives us a big storm in mid-January. Other models, and last night's run of the America computer model, just looked at the atmosphere for the middle weekend of January and said, and I quote. "Meh."

The atmospheric alchemy has to be just perfect to create a historic type nor'easter. It's always possible, of course. But I'd forget about this big  storm idea until about a week from now. If, on next Wednesday, we're still looking at a large storm, we'll start raising alarm bells then.   

Chances are, the alchemy won't work on the weekend of the 17th and 18th, and we'll see no impressive weather.  Whether or not something big happens, we'll keep you on top of it.  

Impressive Lake Champlain Effect Snowstorm In Small Area Sunday, More Active Weather Area-Wide This Week

National Weather Service snow prediction map taking us
through a small 1 to 3 inch snowfall later today combined
with a slightly larger but not huge storm Tuesday night.
Some mix is possible toward the end of the
second storm late Tuesday night and early Wednesday. 
Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to read.

A surprise snowstorm blanketed a small area near the southern end of Lake Champlain Sunday. 

It was one of the most impressive lake effect snowfalls off of Lake Champlain I've ever seen.

Most of the snow fell on the New York side of the lake, but some of it clipped the immediate lakeshore on the Vermont side.

Snowfall totals included 9 inches in Port Henry, New York, 7 inches in Willsboro and Crown Point, and 6 inches in Mineville and Moriah Center, New York and Chimney Point in West Addison, Vermont. 

Light winds, just east of due north, flowed down the length of Lake Champlain all day. The direction of the wind aimed the snow at the southern end of the lake on the New York side, but also clipped the point of land that juts into the lake at West Addison, Vermont.

Since the winds weren't very strong, they had plenty of time to gather moisture off unfrozen sections of the lake.  The lake narrows as you head south and hills on either side of the lake become closer together. That, and some light west winds coming over the Adirondacks, helped the air flow converge, or squeeze together. 

When that happens, the air has nowhere to go but up. Rising air cools, and that makes the moisture in the air condense. That condensed moisture fell as snow.  It was a fluffy stuff, so it was able to accumulate pretty deeply. 

WHAT'S NEXT

The big picture is all of us, not just a small piece of the southern Champlain Valley are going to get some snow this week. The bad news is we're going to get some other stuff, too. We have three or four quick storms to talk about. None of them are huge, but each will affect your life to some degree. 

Storm #1

After a morning that brought us temperatures near or below for, it's clouding up pretty fast. A tiny storm is going to go right over the top of us this afternoon and night. Since the system is so small, this will be a quickie. It'll start snowing by around mid afternoon and finish up before midnight.  I'm calling this "Storm #1 but that's being generous. It's a minor thing. 

Most of us should get between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of snow, with maybe a little less in the Northeast Kingdom, where the air might be a little drier. It'll stay cold with this little event. High temperatures much like yesterday, will stay in the teens. 

Today's snow, although not amounting to much, should be enough to make the drive home from work this afternoon and evening a little slick and annoying. Plan on taking it slow. 

Tomorrow, ahead of the next storm, will feel like a glorious heat wave. Highs should soar all the way to near 30, which is close to normal for this time of year. 

The next storm hits tomorrow night. It will be a little bigger than today's squirt of snow, but it won't be enormous. 

It'll come out of the southeastern Great Lakes tomorrow evening and head toward northern Vermont, where it will begin to fade. A new storm will form near Maine and become the predominate one. 

How and when this little transfer of power from the original storm to the new one in Maine will determine how much of this will be snow and how much will be a mix.

As it stands now, the transfer will keep us in Vermont with mostly snow. Especially north. Current projections have us getting two to six inches of snow, with some mixed precipitation toward the end of the storm late Tuesday night and early Wednesday. 

Southern Vermont should get less snow, maybe one to two inches out of this storm, and more freezing rain and sleet than the north. This will mess up the roads, but be not nearly enough to wreck trees and power lines like the last bout of freezing rain on December 29 did.

#Storms #3 and #4

For some of us, our well advertised January thaw wills start marginally on Wednesday, as highs get into the mid 30s. Thursday will be mild and quiet, with highs in the 35 to 42 degree range. 

Then we get the next system. I'm calling this batch Storm #3 and Storm #4 because current projections have it coming in two waves. At least some computer models have one storm going by to our west Friday and another close on its heels Saturday. 

Since both storms will go by to our west, these storms will be almost exclusively rain. At this point, I don't think either of these systems will produce enough rain and thawing to create a flood concern. But we'll keep an eye on these as they get closer nevertheless. 

Starting next Sunday night and Monday , we will get back to our regularly scheduled winter. At first, the  the cold won't be too intense. It'll basically be about average early next week. But signs point to gradually deepening cold as we head further into the month.