A Rather Unpredictable Weather Week Coming Up For Vermont

This forecast weather map for this coming Wednesday
morning looks a bit frightening, with a sprawling storm
covering most of the U.S. Looks are deceiving, at least
for us in Vermont. Some precipitation might 
fall early in the week, but it's not definite, and if
we do get any, we don't yet know what kind.

 This is going to be one of those weeks where meteorologists might be tempted to thrown up their hands and say "You figure it out. "   

It's not that they're unprofessional or would actually do that,. But all the moving parts in the atmosphere are so jumbled that it's hard to tease out what we're going to get.

Overall, the best guess is it will be mostly relatively mild, pretty unsettled, but otherwise a pretty iffy weather week.   The forecast through about Tuesday is relatively easy, but after that, it's basically a flip of a coin

But, let's get into it the best we can.

In case you missed it, Burlington broke its long streak of subfreezing days on Saturday. After 22 days of staying below 32 degrees, the temperature briefly poked up to a pleasant 35. 

TODAY

It won't be quite as warm today. As expected, a weak cold front passed through most of Vermont overnight. It was in the single numbers at dawn in the north, with cold spots like Lake Eden getting s cold s 8 below. In the far south, the cold front never really arrived, so it stayed in the low 20s in places like Bennington.  

Temperatures will tend to even out statewide today. Highs will be in the 20s, with some low 30s south. Sun will fade behind some clouds, but it will be gorgeous day for skiing or other winter sports. Today's a great day to pretend to be winning gold at the Winter Olympics. 

MONDAY/TUESDAY

A weak disturbance should come in tonight to throw a handful of snowflakes at us overnight. You might find maybe a dusting or a half inch of powder on your car in the morning.

The day itself will likely be the hottest it's been since mid-January. That's not saying much, since it'll only get into the mid-30s for most of us. Another weak disturbance - ever so slightly stronger than tonight's - will probably deposit a dusting to maybe a full inch of snow in spots on a balmy Monday night. 

I say balmy because lows will be in the 20s to around 30. 

Tuesday will still be warm with highs in the 30s to around 40.  One note or caution:  I see a lot of ice dams on many roofs. Some of those will let go over the next few days. In many villages and somewhat more urban areas around Vermont, people park their cars in the narrow spaces between houses. 

You might not want to do that as heavy chunks of ice could fall. Also, if you can, try not to walk under these frozen Swords of Damocles. 

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND

Forecast weather maps for Wednesday morning look ominous. They show a strong, sprawling storm covering the entire middle of the U.S. and the Rocky Mountains.  Since storms tend to head east, you'd think we in Vermont were in for something really nasty. 

But it's not as scary as it looks. High pressure over northern and central Quebec will tend to shear this storm apart. Here's where we get into the "we have no idea what's going on" part of the forecast.'

Will that Quebec high pressure shunt the whole thing to our south?  Or will the storm come through, albeit in weakened fashion.  Will another storm follow on Friday and Saturday? If so, rain or snow or mix?

What will the temperatures be like? We know Vermont will be in part of the battle zone between warm from the south, and Arctic air to the north. Will frigid winter weather reassert itself? Or will we have more thawing? Maybe something in the middle, mild for February but not exactly warm?. 

All I can is stay tuned to this bat channel for answers we hope will appear within the next day or two.