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| Snow forecast through tomorrow. But the fluffy snow we'll' get isn't our big problem. The Arctic cold this weekend will be what to watch out for. |
It got below zero in most places around Vermont early today. That's become a bit of a routine. That's the 11th below zero day Burlington has had this winter and there are several more coming.
The last time we had more below zero days in a winter was just a few years back in 2021-22 with 20 days zero or below.
Back in the 1960s, 1970s or even 1980s, we'd routinely have two or three dozen subzero days each winter, so this is no great shakes compared to what your parents or grandparents went through.
There are some things about the cold weather we've had this year that feel novel. On instance is, of course Lake Champlain, which, if it didn't completely freeze over last night, probably will between now and early next week.
Many parts of Lake Champlain, including inside the Burlington Breakwater have been ice-free or too unsafe to walk on in recent years. This year the area between Burlington's Waterfront Park and the Breakwater have become a crowd pleaser.
Until tonight, anyway, there hasn't been much snow at all since January 26. Sections of the lake, like some area inside the breakwater and many other areas, have become great for ice skating.
Enjoy if you can this afternoon, as this weekend will be terrible for outdoor winter fun.
It'll cloud up as we go through late this afternoon and evening ahead of our Blast from Siberia.
The bulk of the snow should come through roughly between around midnight and mid-morning Saturday. A bit of an upper level low along the cold front might enhance the snowfall a little. It'll amount to two of three inches of fluff for most of us. Maybe a little less than that east of the Green Mountains. And maybe four to five inches right in the ski resort zones of the Green Mountains.
The snow might briefly come fairly hard while the cold front is passing by early tomorrow morning. The best guess is the front will make it into the Champlain Valley by roughly 4 a.m. and will pass into New Hampshire within a couple hours, give or take, after that.
Our daytime highs will be in the mid teens to around 20 in the wee hours of tomorrow before the Arctic front blasts through. The Arctic air means business and it will come in fast on strong north winds. The temperature will fall all day.
That fluffy snow will blow around in wind that will gust over 30 mph. So there will probably be visibility problems on the roads in open areas even after the snow stops. Travel on the highways won't be great for the first part of Saturday, so you'll want to fit that into your plans.
Various cold weather alerts are in effect, which might make things a little confusing. Here in the North Country, they issue a cold weather advisory if forecasters think the wind chill will be between 20 an 30 below. An extreme cold warning goes into effect if the wind chill is going to be 30 below or worse.
Since the cold air is arriving in New York first and will establish itself more deeply during the day, an extreme cold warning is in effect on that side of the lake from 7 a.m. tomorrow to 1 p.m. Sunday.
The wind Saturday might be a bit stronger in southern Vermont than in the north, which would lower the wind chill somewhat. So the southernmost two counties in Vermont are also under an extreme cold warning tomorrow and tomorrow night.
The rest of Vermont is under a cold weather advisory from late tomorrow afternoon to early Sunday afternoon.
I wouldn't worry about the distinction between cold advisories and warnings and exactly when they go into effect. Just know it will be dangerously frigid outdoors in Vermont and surrounding states and in Quebec from roughly mid to late morning tomorrow well into Sunday.
I'm almost happy I have an eye injury as it gives me yet another excuse not to go outside this weekend
That little upper level low that's coming with our cold front will be an ingredient that will feed a "bomb cyclone" or rapidly developing nor'easter far offshore of New England.
The squeeze play between that bomb cyclone and the Arctic air we have coming in from Siberia will keep the wind going Saturday night. That's when things get really bad. Overnight lows will be near 10 below, or maybe low teens below. But the winds will keep gusting to maybe 25 mph or so. That's when the wind chills go into the 20s an 30s below.
It's the kind of night I worry about if somebody crashes off a road at 2 in the morning and just freezes to death there. Or an overworked wood stove sets a house on fire. People who live there, escape out into the cold in their pajamas, if they're lucky enough to escape at all. Then imagine you're a fire chief managing the task of putting the fire out in that weather.
All kinds of dark scenarios go through my head when it gets this cold. Winter doesn't always inspire a glass half full kind of attitude.
Anyway, we get to Sunday and it will be bright and sunny. Yay! But the strengthening February sun will only briefly get us a little above zero in the afternoon, and we'll still have a north breeze to keep the wind chill ridiculous.
The wind will die down a little Sunday night. But the air should stir enough to prevent us from getting to say 20 or 30 below, like it would if it went dead calm.
But expect lows in the teens below zero by early Monday morning. And wind chills perhaps in the 20s below again.
A warming trend of sorts will start Monday. By then we should get into the low teens. That's still cold but will fantastic after the weekend we'll have.
The rest of the week will be probably just a tiny bit cooler than average for mid-February. We'll have highs in the 20s, lows in the single numbers. Pretty close to the way this week has been. We'll take it!
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