After Vermont 26 Degree Monday Heatwave, Below Zero Again This Morning. If You Want Super Arctic Cold, It's Coming

The sun getting ready to set over Lake Champlain, as
seen from St. Albans Bay Monday after a bright, 
bluebird winter day. 

Another round of subzero cold Monday and this morning has very nearly frozen over, despite an afternoon "heat wave" that brought temperatures into the 20s.  

Lake Champlain might have managed one last lake effect snow of the season a couple days ago, on Sunday. 

There was enough open water, combined with just the right atmospheric set up, for a light stripe of snow extending from about Burton Island down to about Bridport. A dusting to up to inches of snow fell in this band.

Time lapse video on  appeared to show a wide area of open water filling in with ice in calm, cold weather Monday morning; 

But it was all just thin scrim of ice that broke into chunks. There was still a fair amount of open water out there.  We'll see what the predawn chill did today on the lake. 

The temperature in Burlington Monday rose to 26 degrees ending a nine day streak where the temperature never got to 20 degrees. That's the longest such stretch of such cold weather since a 12-day stretch of sub-20 degree weather January,  2005. 

Now that we're into February, the sun is starting to get higher in the sky and
stronger. With light winds, yesterday's bluebird skies and sun  felt strangely comfortable out there for a change. 

Nothing lasts forever, though.  Especially anything that feels remotely mild. So, with clear, moonlit skies last night, we were back below zero this morning. 

It still looks like we will make it up into the 20s today, tomorrow and maybe, maybe Thursday and Friday. We also might get a bit of snow tonight  Wednesday, but it shouldn't amount to much. Maybe a dusting in the valleys, o an inch or two in the northern Greens.

Obviously we can't stay balmy forever.  Highs in the 20s is way, way more than we deserve.  (CHECK)

With that, we will get right back into the deep freeze Friday and the weekend. It'll come in Friday night with maybe an inch or two of snow. You will really notice the chill starting Friday night and over the weekend. 

My early guess on the weekend cold is it might be the roughest in the series yet. Current have forecasts have highs in the single numbers and lows in the single numbers and teens below zero. 

That's similar to the depth of the past couple of cold waves. The difference this time will be the wind. This time, gusts are likely to blast at us from the north over the weekend. These won't just be  light, frigid breezes. It'll be a bonafide wind.

The wind chills will make the upcoming cold wave worse and more dangerous than the weather we've seem recently

A WARMER CHANGE?

We might get a little bit of additional relief after this next cold wave passes next week. 

I wrote a few days ago that there might be a change in the weather pattern after mid-month. I am getting more optimistic that we might at least temporarily turn milder later in February.

If NOAA's eight to 14 day outlook is to be believed, the big high pressure over Greenland that forced cold air southward recently is on the move. It looks like it will shift a bit toward northeast Canada while expanding southward a bit. 

That, and a possible slight dip in the jet stream over the western United States would make the jet stream flow more west to east across the United States. Instead of Arctic air coming right at us from northwest Canada, some milder Pacific air would at least occasionally mix into the air over us. 

That's not guaranteed just yet, but it's the best sign of a warmup I've seen yet in this Arctic siege.  By warmup, I don't mean beach weather. It's February. It'll still be chilly most days later in the month.  Just not way below zero cold. 

The new weather pattern would also probably increase the chances of storms with snow or mixed precipitation. It won't be all rainbows and sunshine and puppy dogs and fairy dust.