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| Latest National Weather snow prediction map, covering this morning through Thursday morning. Most of us are in for 3 to 6 inches of snow, maybe more in the mountains, a little less extreme southeast. |
The National Weather Service is calling for a general three to six inch snowfall across the Green Mountain State and surrounding areas.
Winter weather advisories are up for all of Vermont except the western parts of Addison and Rutland counties, where they might be just under the amount of snow needed to trigger the advisory.
A tiny section of the immediate lower Connecticut Valley south of Springfield is also exempt from the advisory.
It doesn't really matter, as it's going to snow everywhere in Vermont. Most of the snow will come down in a big thump late this afternoon and evening.
THE DETAILS:
We're starting the day off cold once again, but not nearly as bad as it was 24 hours earlier. The coldest I could find in Vermont Monday morning was 29 below at East Haven. St. Johnsbury takes the prize for most dramatic warmup. The temperature there went from 20 below to 24 above within about 10 hours. That's a rise of 44 degrees, which is really impressive.
Temperatures this morning were mostly back down in the single numbers above zero at dawn. An exception is Plattsburgh, New York that got to at least 4 below. Burlington was right at 0, which was a bit chillier than many places around the region.
An interesting thing happens when Lake Champlain is frozen or mostly so. Places like Burlington and Plattsburgh, New York stop being the warm spots in the region because we've lost the influence of the relatively warm water. It's now sealed under ice.
Until the ice melts, the only way the Champlain Valley would be warmer than elsewhere only if there's south winds. The south winds funnel easily northward between the Adirondacks and Greens, ,so balmier air brought by the south winds reaches the valley first.
The lake isn't going to help. In fact, as we head into late winter and spring, wind coming off the frozen lake, or very winter-chilled lake water once the ice breaks up, will make places along the immediate shore of Lake Champlain often much chillier than places further away.
Basically, Lake Champlain has turned into a gigantic beer cooler.
Anyway, back to today.
THE STORM
It's going to warm up nicely - at least by our standards - everywhere this afternoon as the snow approaches. We should get well into the 20s. Any sun you see this morning will quickly fade behind clouds as our Alberta Clipper rapidly approaches.
The best guess is the snow coming in from the west will reach Champlain by roughly 3 or 4 p.m. today and quickly cross the rest of the state in the hour or two after that.
Once it arrives, the snow will go from flurries to heavy snow very, very quickly. Most of the storm's snow will come in the initial three to four hours of this episode. This evening's dump will probably go at a rate of an inch per hour, which is pretty fast.
That means, unfortunately, on your drive home from work or school late this afternoon and this evening, you're going to run into rapidly deteriorating road conditions, bad visibility and the maximum amount of idiots surrounding you since the 4-7 p.m. time frame will be the busiest on the roads.
Unfortunately, I have an important appointment in Burlington today at 3 p.m., which means I'm going to spend my entire evening parked on a snarled Interstate 89. I'll wave to you if you're one of the hundreds or more people stuck with me.
The snow will tend to lighten up later tonight, leaving behind a general three to five inches of new snow. If it's still snowing at dawn, it'll barely be flurries in many areas.
But for some of us, anyway, that won't be the end of it. The Alberta Clipper will tend to fade out somewhere near or over northern Vermont late tonight, to be replaced by a new storm that will crank up east of Maine.
That offshore storm will strengthen, creating winds from the east that will blow into Quebec, then southward over Vermont. The moist air will wring out additional snow, especially over much of western Vermont and the Green Mountains. Those areas can expect another one, two, maybe even three inches of additional snow over those areas.
As mentioned, the total snowfall from today through Wednesday evening, as mentioned, looks like it'll amount to three to six inches for most of us.
The western slopes and summits of the Green Mountains will do the best in this episode with several ski resorts likely seeing eight, nine or even ten inches of total accumulation. The western slopes of New York's Adirondacks and the White Mountains over in New Hampshire should be just as deep in the snow by later tomorrow.
This has been the best winter for skiing and riding in Vermont I've seen in years. We've never gotten any extreme snowstorms, but the conditions have been great most of the time really since mid-November.
This will be a pretty fluffy snow, so I'm not worried about the weight of snow on trees and power lines. And we won't be trying to clear wet cement from our driveways tomorrow.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY
Finally! I'll be quiet and warmer for a few days at least. By "warmer" I don't exactly mean beach weather. Wednesday through Saturday should bring highs mostly in the mid and upper 20s and lows in the single numbers to low teens.
We have a shot at going above freezing on Sunday. If that happens, it would be the first time since January 22 we've cracked 32 degrees.
There also might be some sort of coastal storm toward Sunday and Monday. The computer models are still all over the place with this thing. Given the limited and conflicting information we have now, that storm could bring us in Vermont a snowfall, an ugly mix or absolutely nothing at all. As always, stay tuned!
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