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| Fox Weather has this graphic of expected snow amounts Click on the image to make it bigger and easier to see, Note the spots of expected two feet or more in ' New Jersey and Massachusetts |
The area under blizzard warnings expanded a little more overnight. All of Delaware and New Jersey are in the blizzard warning zone. So is southeastern Maryland and a few counties in Pennsylvania.
The blizzard warming was nudged northward to about Newburgh in New York's Lower Hudson Valley. In Connecticut. the blizzard warning yesterday just covered the southern coast. Now, that warning goes into central Connecticut. In eastern coastal New England, the blizzard warning now extends as far north as Portsmouth, New Hampshire.
There's been some changes to the forecast in Vermont, too. We'll get into those further down in this post.
WHERE IT STANDS
The storm is off to its expected slow start this morning, with patchy areas of light rain, snow, sleet and fog. But it will all intensify during today and reach its screaming crescendo tonight.
The storm was just developing near coastal North Carolina this morning and will strengthen explosively.
By early tomorrow, the intense nor'easter will be in a position southeast of Cape Cod, at around 40 degrees north latitude and 70 degrees west longitude. That spot is known as the "benchmark" among meteorologists. It's the spot you want a nor'easter to go to give maximum snowfall to New England and the New York metro area.
Since this storm will be so intense, the amount of snow will be magnified. So will the wind. In some areas, like New York City, this will be the second big snowstorm of the winter. This one will be much worse than the one in late January. The Big Apple is under its first blizzard warning since March, 2017. This is also expected to be the biggest snowstorm there since 2016.
Initially, the snow will be wet and heavy, especially near the coastlines. The weight of the snow, combined with the strong winds, will probably bring down a lot of trees and power lines. There will probably be a lot of power outages. Repairs won't go quickly, considering it will be incredibly dangerous for crews to fix power lines in the midst of a blizzard.
Don't even think of flying in or out of the Northeast today. As of 8:30 this morning, a little over 3,000 flights were canceled today and nearly 3,800 flights were scrubbed for tomorrow, says FlightAware.com. I expect those numbers to go up more
Everybody is the storm zone has been told to hunker down, basically shelter in place in their homes. Any road travel should be limited to extreme emergencies, and even then, cars should be stocked with foo, water, and extra warm clothing.
Snowfall rates should increase to two inches per hour or even a little more tonight. In southeastern Massachusetts, there could be isolated areas of up to four inches per hours. There's also a decent chance of thunder snow in southeastern New England.
Winds will gust to or even over 50 mph in the blizzard zone. It will be almost as bad in areas covered by winter storm warnings just west and north of the areas under the blizzard warning. In southeastern New England, winds could be even stronger than in New York and New Jersey. Some areas south of Boston and on Cape Cod and the island could go past 70 mph.
Generally speaking, most places in this blizzard should receive one to two feet of snow. Some areas could receive up to 30 inches of snow. A few records for deepest snowstorm are under threat.
Coastal flooding is also a given with this, so expect some damage there. The coastal flooding won't be as bad as the devastation we saw in the Blizzard of 1978, but it'll still get dangerous. Some ice remains in shelters bays and such from that frigid weather earlier this month. Movement of that ice during the storm could cause added damage.
Between the possibly record breaking snow depths, the strong winds and the coastal flooding, this is one super dangerous storm.
The only saving grace I can find is this intense nor'easter won't stall like the Blizzard of 1888 or the Blizzard of 1978. In this case, the period of intense weather will last only about 24 hours. But the damage will have been done.
Also, after the storm, some slow thawing is expected to begin later this week, in contrast to the January storm. It stayed cold for weeks after the January storm, so all that snow and ice just sat there. This time, the snow will at least start to settle in the big cities of the Northeast starting later this week.
We're hoping everyone heeds the warnings with this intense storm. If people don't follow the rules and stay inside during this blizzard, some of them could die.
VERMONT EFFECTS
When a nor'easter goes over that 40/70 benchmark southeast of Cape Cod, as mentioned above, most of Vermont usually gets just the fringe effects of the storm.
Since this storm is so powerful, far southern Vermont will get a decent hit, though it will be nothing compared to what places nearer to the coast will endure.
Bennington and Windham counties, the areas of the state closest to the Massachusetts border are under a winter storm storm warning. Those areas should get five to 10 inches of snow with winds gusting as high as 40 mph tonight an tomorrow.
Rutland and Windsor counties have a winter weather advisory for Monday as those areas should get three to five inches of snow with winds gusting to 35 mph. That'll force a lot of blowing and drifting.
As is typical with a setup like this, snow amounts should fall sharply as you head into northern Vermont. East of the Green Mountains in northern Vermont, there could be an inch or two of new snow out of this. In the Champlain Valley, it'll be less than an inch.
For those Vermonters who are for some reason desperate for snow, there's a slight possibility the nor'easter might throw a band of snow all the way across Vermont, which would give northern parts of the state a few inches of snow.
That said, the possibility of that happening is quite low. Don't hold your breath.
The nor'easter will make things windy and quite cold for a couple days. We'll have some relative warmth today with highs in the mid-30 under mostly cloudy skies.
By tomorrow, it'll only be in the 20s for highs with a stiff north wind gusting to more than 30 mph. Readings will drop to 10 degrees or so tomorrow night and only get into the upper teens and low 20s on Tuesday. It could get close to zero Tuesday night.
It'll warm up again to daytime highs in the low 30s late in the week. But a small storm Wednesday could spread a little snow our way. Another storm Friday gives us a shot at more snow or mixed precipitation. Those forecasts are iffy, so stay tuned for information after the nor'easter passes.
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