Has This Been A Tough Vermont Winter Or Have We Turned Into Wimps. I Dive Into The Stats For An Answer

Another clear, cold dawn over St. Albans, Vermont
this morning. Looking at the stats, this winter has been
fairly rough in Vermont by 21st century standards.
But compared to the winters of over the past 
century or more, this one is running in
the middle of the pack. 

 Having just endured a long cold spell in what seems like a really long winter here in Vermont, we have to ask the question:  

Has this been a really tough winter so far or have we all become a bunch of wimps? Looking at the stats so far this season, the answer is kind of mixed .

It hasn't been particularly bad by historical standards, but it has been on the rough side compared to most winters over the past quarter century. 

First of all, this winter will not end up being anywhere near the coldest or snowiest on record. Temperatures are running cooler than average, but not wildly so. Snowfall has generally been near to a little above normal

It's the persistence of the winter chill that's been the real thing. . 

Let's look under the hood at the stats, at least as measured in Burlington, for a sense of how bad or good this winter has been.  

Subzero Nights

Through Thursday, there had been 14 days this in Burlington that got to zero or below. If no more occur, it will be the most since 2022. So not extreme.

Chances are it will get below zero again, but if not, the number of nights below zero isn't unusual, since 82 of the past 125 winters had more than 14 such nights. 

So no biggie. Especially since at least 23 winters in Burlington have had at least 30 subzero nights.  The notorious winter of 1933-34 had 45 such nights. We won't break that record! Only two winters have had no below zero weather.  Both were in the past 25 years, with the most recent one in 2023-24.

Consecutive Freezing Days

The number of consecutive days below freezing is a little more interesting. Assuming weather forecasts are correct, we'll end up with 23 subfreezing days in a row until it gets well into the 30s on Monday. The last time there were more than that was in January and February 2015, with a string of 27 of 'em 

We won't get into the top ten list of longest subfreezing streaks as #10 has 29 such days.  At least we'd better not! Than record is held by the winter of 1976-77, when Burlington endured 51 consecutive days at or below 32 degrees.

Still, this cold streak is fairly rare: The National Weather Service in South Burlington says only 20 out of the past 141 winters have had spells of continuous subfreezing weather that has lasted this long.

Total Number of Days Under 32 

What about the total number of days that never got above freezing this winter? I looked at the past 100 years of winters in Burlington and found the following:

So far, through Thursday, we've had 50 days that never got above freezing. There will be several, perhaps many more such days before spring arrives.  If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say we'll have at least another 15 days or so this winter that stay below the freezing point  But you never know.

If by some miracle every day from now manages to thaw, we've still surpassed 16 winters in total number of subfreezing days.  

We've been spoiled by recent warm winters. All of the top eight winters with the least amount of subfreezing days have occurred since 2001-02. In the winter of 2011-12, remarkably only 24 days didn't thaw. 

Also, there's absolutely no way this winter will make it to the most subfreezing days in a single winter. That honor goes to another notorious winter, which was 1969-70, with 93 days at or under 32 degrees.

Storminess is a little more subjective, but I'll take a crack at it. 

Snowfall

We aren't nearly done with snow yet, as it usually snows through March and into April. In fact, big snowstorms tend to come later in the winter. Nine of Burlington's 20 biggest snowstorms have occurred on or after Valentine's Day.  

 If in some fantasy world  that won't happen we get absolutely no more snow this winter, Burlington would end the season with 64.3 inches. 

That would mean 38 winters in the past 123 years would still have less snow than this winter. Only 11 winters have had more than 100 inches of snow. I highly doubt this winter will become the 12th on that list, but who knows? Miracles could happen I suppose.

Individual storms this winter have also voided threatening record territory.. The largest snowstorm this winter in Burlington dumped 15.6 inches of snow on January 25-26  That really didn't come close to cracking the top 20 list of greatest snowstorms. 

The greatest snow depth on record in Burlington is 33 inches. So far this winter, there's never been more than a foot of snow covering the landscape.

One more thing: I haven't seen confirmation yet, but I'm betting Lake Champlain has entirely frozen over for the first time since March 2019.

Bottom Line

By 21st century, climate changed standards, this winter is indeed on the rough side, but it likely won't be  considered the worst of the bunch. I'd arguably give a nod to the winter of 2014-15 as the most intense in the past 25 years.  

Compared to the standards of the past 100 to 125 years or so, this winter so far is probably in the middle of the pack in the severity ratings. Late February and March can give us some wild extremes  one way or the other, so the story of winter 2025-26 is by no means written yet.