Windy Warmth This Morning To Turn Into Frigid Sunday/Monday Chill Across Vermont

A mount of snow partly obscures the view out of my home
office window in St. Albans, Vermont. I hoping
some thawing later next week restores the full view

So far, the forecast is holding up for one more shot of Arctic air blasting into Vermont, but - at least in the warmer zones - this could be the last spell of below zero weather until next winter. 

I hope the above sentence doesn't jinx things.

As expected, it's mild and windy out there, especially in the Champlain Valley. There, temperatures and peak wind gusts give you roughly the same numbers. The temperatures are near 40, and so are the maximum gusts. 

Some towns in eastern Vermont were still in the teens to lower 20s as of 7 a.m., as those warm southerly winds hadn't been able to reach into those valleys yet. But don't worry,  those of you in the Connecticut River Valley will see some brief thawing today as temperatures rocket upward. Briefly. 

Temperatures should stay in that low 40s range until early afternoon north when that Arctic cold front comes through. Southern Vermont will wait a little longer for the front, so they might actually peak in the early to mid-afternoon as our Arctic front comes on through.

A few light raindrops or snowflakes might get squeezed out of this front, but there won't be much. I'm seeing a band of light rain in New York State this morning with this front, but the air in Vermont is pretty dry, so that'll evaporate a lot of that precipitation. 

LITTLE SNOW/LOTS OF COLD

We're still looking at a patch of light snow racing eastward across New England tomorrow morning. The forecast is still a little shaky with this, as different computer  models have slightly different ideas on how much much and where. We do know the snowfall will be light. 

As of this morning, forecasters are going for one to 2.5 inches in southern and central Vermont. That amount should also hit areas slammed by this week's blizzard in southern New England.  I'm sure residents there are thrilled. 

Northern Vermont should only expect an inch or less. I'll note this forecast might change a bit by later today.

We're much more confident that snow will clear out to reveal a frigid Sunday afternoon for this time of year with temperatures not climbing out of the teens in many areas. As winds die down in the evening, we're set up for perfect conditions for a frigid night. 

Light winds, clear skies and a snow cover, plus that Arctic air ensure all of us in Vermont should be below zero by dawn's early light Monday morning.  Some places will be in the teens below zero. Monday should be bright and cold with highs in the teens and low 20s. Frigid, yes, but the strong early March sun should make it feel a little better.

I guess we can say March is coming in like a lion this year. 

WARMUP

The weather pattern is definitely changing toward a warmer one after we get through our two-day Arctic blast.  That doesn't mean we get a reprieve from wintry weather, but at least we'll have some thawing temperatures thrown in at times, and the maple sugarers can start their season in earnest.

It looks like we'll get a little snow later Tuesday and Tuesday night, but it's too early to talk accumulation just yet. 

Another system looks like it might throw some mixed precipitation at us toward the end of the week. But that mix at this point looks like it might trend toward rain as temperatures hit the 40s. At least hopefully! 

March starts tomorrow, so now it will keep getting harder and harder for temperatures to stay below freezing. The weather over the next couple of days will be harsh, but the worst of winter is over. 

Bracing For The Cold Snap In Vermont/Northeast

Snow forecast through tomorrow. But the fluffy snow we'll'
get isn't our big problem. The Arctic cold this weekend will
be what to watch out for. 

 Editor's Note: I'm recovering from my Wednesday eye surgery, which went well, so I might be posting at odd times or not as frequently as usual for awhile yet. We apologize for the inconvenience.

It got below zero in most places around Vermont early today. That's become a bit of a routine. That's the 11th below zero day Burlington  has had this winter and there are several more coming. 

The last time we had more below zero days in a  winter was just a few years back in 2021-22 with 20 days zero or below. 

Back in the 1960s, 1970s or even 1980s, we'd routinely have two or three dozen subzero days each winter, so this is no great shakes compared to what your parents or grandparents went through. 

There are some things about the cold weather we've had this year that feel novel. On instance is, of course Lake Champlain, which, if it didn't completely freeze over last night, probably will between now and early next week. 

Many parts of Lake Champlain, including inside the Burlington Breakwater have been ice-free or too unsafe to walk on in recent years. This year the area between Burlington's Waterfront Park and the Breakwater have become a crowd pleaser.  

Until tonight, anyway, there hasn't been much snow at all since January 26. Sections of the lake, like some area inside the breakwater and many other areas, have become great for ice skating. 

Enjoy if you can this afternoon, as this weekend will be terrible for outdoor winter fun. 

It'll cloud up as we go through late this afternoon and evening ahead of our Blast from Siberia. 

The bulk of the snow should come through roughly between around midnight and mid-morning Saturday. A bit of an upper level low along the cold front might enhance the snowfall a little. It'll amount to two of three inches of fluff for most of us. Maybe a little less than that east of the Green Mountains. And maybe four to five inches right in the ski resort zones of the Green Mountains. 

The snow might briefly come fairly hard while the cold front is passing by early tomorrow morning. The best guess is the front will make it into the Champlain Valley by roughly 4 a.m. and will pass into New Hampshire within a couple hours, give or take, after that. 

Our daytime highs will be in the mid teens to around 20 in the wee hours of tomorrow before the Arctic front blasts through. The Arctic air means business and it will come in fast on strong north winds. The temperature will fall all day.

That fluffy snow will blow around in wind that will gust over 30 mph. So there will probably be visibility problems on the roads in open areas even after the snow stops. Travel on the highways won't be great for the first part of Saturday, so you'll want to fit that into your plans.

Various cold weather alerts are in effect, which might make things a little confusing. Here in the North Country, they issue a cold weather advisory if forecasters think the wind chill will be between 20 an 30 below. An extreme cold warning goes into effect if the wind chill is going to be 30 below or worse.

Since the cold air is arriving in New York first and will establish itself more deeply during the day, an extreme cold warning is in effect on that side of the lake from 7 a.m. tomorrow to 1 p.m. Sunday.  

The wind Saturday might be a bit stronger in southern Vermont than in the north, which would lower the wind chill somewhat. So the southernmost two counties in Vermont are also under an extreme cold warning tomorrow and tomorrow night.

The rest of Vermont is under a cold weather advisory from late tomorrow afternoon to early Sunday afternoon. 

I wouldn't worry about the distinction between cold advisories and warnings and exactly when they go into effect. Just know it will be dangerously frigid outdoors in Vermont and surrounding states and in Quebec from roughly mid to late morning tomorrow well into Sunday.

I'm almost happy I have an eye injury as it gives me yet another excuse not to go outside this weekend 

That little upper level low that's coming with our cold front will be an ingredient that will feed a "bomb cyclone" or rapidly developing nor'easter far offshore of New England. 

The squeeze play between that bomb cyclone and the Arctic air we have coming in from Siberia will keep the wind going Saturday night. That's when things get really bad. Overnight lows will be near 10 below, or maybe low teens below. But the winds will keep gusting to maybe 25 mph or so.  That's when the wind chills go into the 20s an 30s below.

It's the kind of night I worry about if somebody crashes off a road at 2 in the morning and just freezes to death there. Or an overworked wood stove sets a house on fire.  People who live there, escape out into the cold in their pajamas, if they're lucky enough to escape at all. Then imagine you're a fire chief managing the task of putting the fire out in that weather. 

All kinds of dark scenarios go through my head when it gets this cold. Winter doesn't always inspire a glass half full kind of attitude.

Anyway, we get to Sunday and it will be bright and sunny. Yay!  But the strengthening February sun will only briefly get us a little above zero in the afternoon, and we'll still have a north breeze to keep the wind chill ridiculous. 

The wind will die down a little Sunday night. But the air should stir enough to prevent us from getting to say 20 or 30 below, like it would if it went dead calm.

But expect lows in the teens below zero by early Monday morning. And wind chills perhaps in the 20s below again.  

A warming trend of sorts will start Monday. By then we should get into the low teens. That's still cold but will fantastic after the weekend we'll have.

The rest of the week will be probably just a tiny bit cooler than average for mid-February. We'll have highs in the 20s, lows in the single numbers. Pretty close to the way this week has been. We'll take it! 

Enjoy The Semi-Heatwave: Vermont/Eastern U.S. Still In For Brutal Weekend Arctic Blast

Satellite photo from early this afternoon shows a little 
open water on Lake Champlain still. It might freeze
over tonight with calm winds and lows near 0. If not
the next, far more brutal cold wave over the weekend
and Monday should do it. 

Editor's Note: I'm recovering from yesterday's' eye surgery, which went well, so I might be posting at odd times or not as frequently as usual for awhile yet. We apologize for the inconvenience. 

Wow, we almost got up to normal in Vermont temperatures in Burlington yesterday. The average temperature was 20 degrees, which was just half a degree below normal. We haven't had a warmer than average day since January 23. 

As of today, we've had 15 consecutive days in Burlington that never got above freezing. That's nowhere near our longest stretch on record, which was 51 days from December 22, 1976 to February 11 1977,

We're not even that close to getting into the top 10 list for consecutive subfreezing days which is 29 days, set on four different occasions must recently from January 5 to February 3, 2004.

Even so, we've got quite a few days to go without any thawing, and there will be a brutal Arctic blast thrown in for good measure. 

Today, as you have been able to tell, is nice. It's been in the 20s this afternoon, the sun is out, who can complain? 

Satellite photos this afternoon still show a fairly large area of open water right in the middle of Lake Champlain but it still could freeze overnight. Ice forms best on the lake when it's at least near or a little below zero and there's calm winds. Wind would push the ice around and break it up. We're expecting exactly those conditions tonight. 

We'll find out tomorrow whether the lake actually freezes or not. Friday will be another nice day with a fair amount of sun and temperatures getting back into the low and mid 20s. Still vaguely cooler than average for this time of year, but not bad. 

BUT THEN........

Our long-advertised brutal Arctic cold front will bring one to three inches of light, fluffy snow, with a bit more in the mountains and maybe the far northern Champlain Valley late Friday night and Saturday morning. But that's not what we're worried about.

The air we're getting is coming is a straight shot from Siberia. It went up and over the North Pole and is blasting its way toward us in New England. Aren't we lucky?   

The big temperature crash is coming a few hours later than we saw in earlier forecasts. Instead of hitting on Friday evening, the real plunge in temperatures won't come until a little before dawn on Saturday. High for the day will be in the teens in the hours just after midnight, so we won't have a rare day in which the high is below zero.

But don't you worry if you want an unbearably cold Saturday, we got ya! By mid to late morning Saturday and continuing through the afternoon, the temperature will head toward subzero readings.  

Winds will gust past 30 mph. On top of the dangerously cold air out there, the fluffy snow that is on the ground now and is coming will blow around a lot. 

Yuck! This might well be the cruelest cold we've had our winter.

Already, an extreme cold watch is in effect for wind chills as low as 35 below zero from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon.  Extreme cold watches, along with winter weather and high wind alerts cover most of the northeastern United States as we all gear up for a rough weekend. 

Parts of North Carolina had a little more snow last night, so they are once again dealing with icy patches there.

It's still unseasonably cold in Florida, and a freeze warning is up again for the northern part of the state tonight. However, most fortunately for them, the intense cold wave that's hitting the Northeast this weekend will not hit Florida much. No hard freezes are likely in Florida after tonight. 

Back here in Vermont, the wind will die down slightly Saturday night to 10 to 20 mph hour, but the temperature will keep going down as well. By dawn, it will be in the upper single numbers to mid-teens below zero.

Sunday  I supposed will be better, but that's not saying much. The wind should gradually get lighter. The sun will probably drive afternoon temperatures into the single digits above zero for a few hours.   But it will be right back down well below zero Sunday night and Monday morning 

The AWESOME news is this might be the last horrible Arctic spell for awhile. The weather pattern is changing just enough so that new blasts of Arctic air won't be nearly as intense next week and beyond. 

That's not to say that this will be the last subzero cold of the winter. It can get below zero well into mid-March. But we are probably in for at least a semi-break.

It'll still be cold Monday and to a lesser extent Tuesday, with subzero mornings both days. But the second half of the week will at least be closer to normal. 

We don't have a lot of details on the second half of next week because the computer models are all over the place on that one.  Which means we also don't know when the next snow will come after whatever falls Friday night and Saturday. We'll probably have nothing until at least next Wednesday.  

As Lower 48 Prepares To Sink Into Arctic Icebox, Alaska Experiences Record Warmth And Storminess.

Destructive winds amid record high temperatures
blew this pedestrian walkway onto a highway
Sunday in Seward, Alaska. 

As cold weather in  much of the United States gets ready to turn truly Arctic and icy, Alaska is having a strangely warm, stormy time of it.  

The most extreme weather hit Anchorage and environs Sunday, with a windstorm so fierce that some houses lost their roofs, caused a pedestrian bridge to partly collapse, and toppled scores of trees and power lines. 

A landslide also blocked a road in Seward, but that was cleaned up within a day without causing injuries. 

Winds gusted to 132 mph at a mountain location south of Anchorage, the Associated Press reports. Just north of Anchorage, a 107 mph gust was reported in Arctic Valley. Within Anchorage itself, winds reached 75 mph. 

Some power outages around Anchorage were expected to last four days, at least through today, Wednesday. 

The extreme northern tip of Alaska experienced their own weird, warm storm. Utqiagvic, formerly Barrow is usually dark, dry and incredibly frigid this time of year. Normal highs are around minus 5 with the low around 16 below.

Instead, it's been incredibly warm for them. Also windy. Plus, on Tuesday, the had a rarity. Utqiagvic had a touch of freezing drizzle, which is practically unheard of there, especially in January. The high temperature reached 25 degrees, which doesn't seem impressive, but it fell just short of a record high. 

On Monday, it snowed in Utquigvic, and if you melted it down, it amounted to 0.29 inches of rain. Again, that doesn't sound like much, but for them, it was a record wet or snowy day. The high temperature was 24, again just short of a  record high. Oh, and the wind gusted to 60 mph. 

So quite a day for them. 

RECORD HIGHS

Fairbanks, Alaska is usually a bitter icebox this time of year, with a normal high of near 0 and a low around 18 below. 

But on Sunday, the temperature soared to a record high of 47 degrees, beating the old record high by eight degrees. On Monday, Fairbanks set another record high of 42,  It's now turning a little colder in Fairbanks, but not nearly as cold as it usually is this time of year. 

After getting a little below zero Thursday, daytime highs are forecast to be in the teens and 20s for at least a week, with overnight lows above zero. That'll be warmer than it will be around here in Vermont. 

Other record highs on Sunday up in Alaska included 44 degrees in McGrath, which exceeded the old record by a big eight degrees. Normally frigid Kotzebue got a little above freezing for a record high of 33, beating the old record of just 30. 

WHY ALASKA BAKES, LOWER 48 FREEZES

A huge northward bulge in the jet stream is allowing warm Pacific air to flood into Alaska, so they're not having the January they're used to having. 

This is one big, big northward bulge, so you're going to have a big, big corresponding dip in the jet stream to the east. That big dip is taking frigid air from the North Pole and is slamming it southward through central Canada.

That Arctic air will cross the border into the northern Plains later Friday and then quickly engulf virtually all of the Lower 48 from the Rockies to the East Coast by Saturday night. 

Low temperatures are expected to reach the 20s to near 30 below zero across a big swath of the northern United States from Idaho to Michigan, Parts or all of 40 states will probably get below zero.

The frigid temperatures are forecast to moderate, but not entirely go away, within about a week from when they start 

 .

  

Videos:

News report on the wind in Anchorage. Click on this link to view or if you see image below, click on that

More wind damage around Anchorage: Click on this link to view, or if again, if you see image below, click on that. 

Security footage of a pedestrian bridge collapsing due to high wind in Seward, Alaska. Once again click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

North To South Weirdness In Vermont Today, Arctic Blast End Of Week Looking Worse

Steam rises from Lake Champlain on a bitterly cold
winter morning several years ago. Similar scenes
seem likely Friday and Saturday as a brief but
intense Arctic blast is set to engulf us 

 If you're in far northern Vermont today, you have a fairly wintery day ahead of you. If you're in southern Vermont, it's springtime!  

The dichotomy might make for a bit of hazardous travel in parts of the state later today and this evening. 

Even though all this is happening this afternoon and evening, we still stand a chance of a big forecast bust later on. 

Part of the culprit with today's action is a fairly weak and fast moving storm that will zip through northern New York and Vermont later on today. Normally, this doesn't make for much of a forecast challenge. If it's warm, you get some showers. Cold, a period of snow. No biggie.

The trouble is a huge temperature contrast and the question of where that contrast will be centered and when. 

It's pretty mild in Vermont this morning. Most places were in the 20s to near 30 at 8 a.m. Go into Quebec, and it's much, much colder. Montreal was at 16 degrees at 8 a.m and Quebec City was at just 5 above. A little north of Montreal, it was below zero.

Where the boundary sets up, and moves is still a bit of a question.  Right now, it looks like most of us in Vermont will stay warm through the day.  A little light snow this morning will change to a little light rain south and central. 

The further south you go, the less of any kind of precipitation you get, as those areas are furthest from that little storm zipping along the Canadian border. Plus, it'll get up into the 35-42 degree range south

The stuff coming out of the sky north of Route 2 will be a bit heavier.  Snow will probably at least mix with rain all the way to the Canadian border - at least briefly - this afternoon. 

Then the little storm's cold front comes through and pulls down that cold Quebec air. It's looking like wet roads in the Champlain Valley this afternoon will turn icy as rain or a mix changes to snow and temperatures plunge. 

One forecast I saw had Burlington's temperature falling steeply from around 36 degrees at 4 p.m. to 23 degrees at 7 p.m. Snow will be falling, at least lightly at this time, so you can see how the road conditions will get ---- not great.

This is NOT a big storm.  There could be up to 2 to 4 inches way north, but just a trace to one inch central and nothing south of Route 4. 

The front will tend to slow down and get drier as it moves south, these falling temperatures will come later and the fall won't be as steep. And it will be drier further south. Road issues shouldn't be as big a problem.

ARCTIC BLAST

This whole situation will leave us with bitter Arctic air not far to our north in Quebec and milder air to the south during the first half of the week. So, Vermont will be in sort of a no man's land of average temperatures for this time of year and a few snow showers. 

Friday and Saturday look awful. The cold wave coming our way looks absolutely brutal. Current forecasts have highs in the single numbers Friday and Saturday and lows Saturday in the morning in the teens and 20s below zero. That's actual temperatures. Wind chills could be in the minus 40s. 

Given current indications, this Arctic blast could end up being even more severe than what I'm outlining here. 

Mercifully, the intense cold looks like it will be brief - lasting just two days - before it starts to warm up noticeably by next Sunday, 

Wednesday Morning Storm Update: Giant Storm, Arctic Blast Still On Schedule

A very colorful National Weather Service home page map
from this morning means lots of weather hazards and that's
certainly the case now through Friday at least.

If you go to the National Weather Service homepage. www.weather.gov, and if you see the map of the United States is really colorful, that's bad news. It means there's a lot of weather hazards.  

This morning, the NWS home page map of the U.S. was lit up like a Christmas tree as a holiday giant storm and Arctic blast begins to make its moves on the nation. 

Most of the colors are different shades of blue, indicated various wind chill warnings and alerts. Other blues are winter storm watches. The hot pinks are winter storm warnings. Reds are blizzard warnings.

Here in Vermont, we have kind of an ugly brown, indicating a high wind watch. The browns indicating wind will expand as the storm draws nearer.  I've got more details and updates on what to expect in the Green Mountain State a little further down in this post. 

I've only seen picky little changes in the forecast for the nation as a whole, so this looks pretty inevitable.

It's hitting hardest on what will be two of the busiest travel days of the year. 

The Washington Post reports that there are 47,554 scheduled flights in the United States on Thursday (including two that my husband and I are taking, fingers crossed) and another 44,300 flights on Friday. 

Most airlines issued weather waivers to help travelers avoid fees and fare differences if they have to rebook a flight due to the storm.  I bet there will be a TON of waivers involved. Conservative estimates in the Washington Post suggest we'll see at least 5,000 flight cancelations or delays on Thursday.

This will extend to the East Coast by Friday.  Little to no snow is in the forecast along Interstate 95.  But high winds and heavy rain Friday in the entire region are sure to screw up at least some flights.

Meanwhile, an estimated 102 million people will drive at least 50 miles to their holiday destinations between Thursday and January 2.

It seems there are always storms to screw things up during the Christmas holiday, but this one is much worse than usual.

One of the problems is the storm's expected immense size. A 1,000 mile wide swath of the northern United States is expected to see wind gusts of at least 40 mph. Many areas will see gusts much stronger than that. 

A vast area from Kansas and Missouri up through the entire Great Lakes region is under winter storm watches, warnings or blizzard warnings. Most of the northern and central Rockies are also under winter storm warnings.

An even more immense area is under wind chill alerts or soon will be.  Draw a line from Spokane, Washington, to El Paso, Texas. Almost everyone east of that line will experience bone chilling to highly dangerous wind chills between now and Christmas Day. 

It's one of those holidays where everyone will have to take a deep breath (behind a scarf if necessary) be patient and be safe.  If you have misgivings about setting off, because it looks a little dangerous on the roads, listen to your gut. Better to postpone that holiday cheer than not live to enjoy it, right?

I'm sure we'll be hearing of some fatalities in the U.S. from this storm, through people getting caught outdoors in Arctic conditions, or being involved in a highway pileup, or a house fire, or something. It's all tragic, but if people take care, we can minimize the danger. 

Power outages will be pretty widespread from Minnesota to New England, and from Ontario and Quebec down to the southern United States. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

So far only a few more details and minor changes to the storm outlook here in the Green Mountain State.  

The National Weather Service in South Burlington
issued this wind forecast map this morning.
Areas in orange could easily see enough wind to
cause power outages Friday. Darker orange and 
red areas feature gusts to at least 60 mph. 

I guess we'll take things in order of when they will happen

MIXED PRECIP

As the storm's warm front comes at us Thursday night, mixed precipitation will break out, especially east of the Green Mountains. 

There probably will be some light accumulation of snow, sleet and ice in several areas, but a strong burst of warm air should send temperatures above freezing by early Friday morning. This won't be a huge deal, but will cause some slippery roads.

HIGH WINDS

The wind is forecast to ramp up pretty quickly, probably before dawn Friday morning and last for several hours. Strongest winds will be on the west slopes of the Green Mountains. I wouldn't be surprised to see reports of gusts to 70 or 80 mph in the most vulnerable spots, like Cambridge, Underhill, Huntington, Hanksville, Mendon, Shrewsbury and Wells.

According to the National Weather Service in South Burlington, often, when there's snow on the ground, a temperature inversion sets up in these situations.  The inversion can act like a lid, so when high speed air starts descending the west slopes of the Greens, it hits the top of that inversion and bounces off.  Which means the strongest winds don't make all the way down the slopes into the valleys.

That might try to happen this time, but the NWS has concluded this storm is so strong and intense, that even if an inversion sets up, the winds stand a good chance of overwhelming any inversions and spread into valleys.

Moreover, the strong winds might not stick close to the western slopes of the Green Mountains everywhere. In the northern Champlain Valley, the damaging winds could extend all the way to Route 7 and Interstate 89.  Might happen near Rutland, too. It's not definite, but certainly possible, that damaging winds gusts of up to 60 mph could reach population centers in and around Rutland, Burlington and St. Albans. 

Even people who don't get the downslope winds off the Green Mountains will see strong gusts. Power outages are possible everywhere in Vermont, as winds could reach at least 50 mph almost everywhere.

FLOODING

As the storm's powerful cold front approaches, a band of heavy rain will come just ahead of it. This will help squelch the winds to an extent, but cause a new problem: The risk of flooding.  Temperatures will rocket upwards into the low 50s. 

Most places will see a quick 1.5 inches or so of rain, and melting snow will add the equivalent of about another inch. We'll see rapid runoff, with small streams and brooks being a problem at first during the day. 

Then main stem rivers will rise.  That will be more dangerous than usual because the water levels in the bigger rivers would peak while temperatures are rapidly falling. (More on that in a sec). Most rivers in the state are at risk of minor flooding, you know, covering some of the roads and things like that. 

At this point, the rivers that show the most risk of causing problems are the Mad River and Otter Creek.  The Winooski River at Essex Junction/Williston could get interesting, too.

FLASH FREEZE

As the cold front blows through in the late afternoon and evening, temperatures will probably drop from the low teens to below freezing within a couple hours, and continue downward into the teens within a couple hours after that. 

Rain would turn to snow, but the snow won't last long or accumulate much.  But such a rapid freeze will ice up the roads pretty instantaneously. Even the main roads would have trouble, never mind the back roads. Travel trouble seems inevitable late Friday afternoon and evening across Vermont.

AFTER THAT

Winds will continue to howl all Friday night and into Saturday, but at least not as strong as they probably will have on Friday.  It might take awhile to clean up the expected power outages. The low temperatures and nasty wind chills Friday night through the weekend will probably add to the misery and make repairing power lines difficult. 

A PROGRAM NOTE

I will be traveling very early Thursday morning, so I will only be able to post what will probably be brief update very early, like 2:30 or 3 in the morning.  You'll find the update at www.matttsweatherrapport.blogspot.com.  Note the three "t's in matts in the URL. I'll also post the early update to my Twitter and Facebook accounts, so look there. 

I'll also try to update through the day if my travel schedule allows. 

 

 

Arctic Blast, Then Rather Big Storm Still In The Cards Here In Vermont

Here's one depiction of how Monday's expected 
storm will look on a weather map. As you can see,
it will be large and complex. Note the forecast
path and set up of the storm will change as
we get closer to the event. 

As of early this morning, there's no real change to the forecast of that bitter Arctic air that's on the way. The broad brush forecast on the expected storm Monday is still on track, too. 

Let's get into the details.

It's pretty murky and icy and icky this morning after a night of very light snow, freezing drizzle and freezing fog. Main roads are pretty well treated, but secondary roads and sidewalks are probably icy in spots, so be aware of that. 

It will remain rather gray and blah today though it might brighten up some this afternoon. There could still also be a few patches of freezing drizzle or light snow. Enjoy today's heat wave - temperatures will be in the upper 20s and low 30s - because we won't see much of that in the coming days and weeks. 

DANGEROUS ARCTIC BLAST

That really intense storm is taking shape far off the East Coast this morning, as expected. This is NOT the one coming Monday, the one I'll get to a little further down in this post.  The storm headed toward Nova Scotia and Newfoundland will really pound those areas with heavy precipitation, strong, potentially damaging winds and storm surges.

Nothing like that for us, but the squeeze play between that storm and strong Arctic high pressure moving in from Ontario toward Quebec will really stir some gusty winds up for us.

Wind chills will become awful Friday afternoon and especially Friday night.  Don't be fooled if you're leaving home from work Friday morning.  The morning won't be all that bad, with temperatures in the teens to near 20 and not-yet-strong winds. 

By the time you get home in the late afternoon, north winds will be blasting from the north with gusts exceeding 30 mph, and the temperature will have fallen to the low single numbers. 

Stay home and hibernate Friday night.  Winds will continue to gust past 30 mph as temperatures fall through the single numbers below zero and into the teens below zero late. This would bring wind chills down to as low as 40 below. Exposed skin can develop frostbite within 10 minutes in those conditions.

And for the love of God bring all your pets indoors by Friday afternoon, even the ones that are used to being outside during the winter. Now is also a good time to plug any drafty areas in your house that could end with frozen pipes.

I'm also super worried about the homeless population in Vermont, the rest of New England and in Quebec. There might not be room for all of them, or some might be reluctant to go into crowded shelters due to Covid.  It will be extremely dangerous to be outside for any length of time Friday night. 

This past November, Vermont expanded the eligibility for emergency housing in motels during extreme cold, and I hope that will help.

Saturday won't be much better as the winds continue to blow, albeit at slightly lower speeds. A clear, subzero night is coming Saturday night, too.  

THE STORM

Sunday will be cold and quiet with clouds starting to increase in the afternoon especially. The system by Sunday will have spread a swath of snow southeastward through the Midwest. Snow and ice will be falling probably from Arkansas to North Carolina by then.

This storm will scoop up plenty of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, turn the corner and head northeast on a beeline to New England by Monday.

We still don't know the exact track of this thing, which is typical for a storm that's four days away.  Usually the heaviest snow is in a band to the northwest of the storm.  It's possible Vermont could be in that band, but we just don't know yet. It's too early to know for sure.  

It the storm goes further to the east, we miss out on the heaviest snow.  If it goes inland more than expected, the heavy snow band will be to our west in New York, and we could also get a brief period of mixed precipitation. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington also says we'll need to keep an eye out for the risk of strong, even damaging winds on the west slopes of the Green Mountains. That may or may not happen. Again, it depends on the track of the storm. 

After the storm, whatever happens with it, the pattern favors repeated shots of Arctic air coming into the Great Lakes and Northeast. This January is going to be an exception.  Most months over the past couple of years have been warmer than normal.  This January looks like it's going to be quite a bit chillier than average.  

Northeast Ice Woes Continue, Arctic Blast Still On Schedule

Yet again, freezing rain is causing headaches through large
swaths of the Northeast today, including parts of Vermont.

UPDATE: 9:15 am SUNDAY:

Light freezing rain has spread through pretty much all of Vermont, at least for a few hours this morning.

While it's quite light, it's more than enough to ice up the roads. Travel is treacherous throughout Vermont this morning. 

There have already been several reports of crashes.  Stay off the roads at least until things get better this afternoon.

Things will improve first in the Champlain Valley, where temperatures will briefly sneak above freezing this afternoon 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

I really hope you're not driving through Pennsylvania, New York or New England this morning.

Widespread freezing rain, as expected, has developed over that whole region this morning, and I'm sure we'll hear plenty of news about pileups, spin outs and car crashes. 

The freezing rain, though mostly quite light, is hitting an unusually large region. A region that is highly populated. With lots of cars, trucks and highways.  As you can see, it's not a great place for freezing rain.  

On the bright side, at least it's Sunday, so not as many people feel compelled to drive to work this morning compared to a weekday. 

Here in Vermont, the worst of the ice seems to want to hit the southern third of the state. Freezing rain started around 6 a.m in Bennington, for instance. I checked the Vermont Agency of Transportation web cam of Route 7 in Bennington shortly before 8 a.m. and it looked bad.  So did Route 9 heading east into the mountains from Bennington.

In the northern half of Vermont, precipitation today will be spottier. Up in the north, we'll see a few snowflakes, then a few areas of freezing drizzle today. 

Even that little bit of freezing drizzle will be enough to freeze up the roads and driveways, so everyone will need to watch out.  Just know it will be worse the further south you drive.

Very much like the ice we saw on Christmas Day, today's freezing rain won't really be enough to cause problems with trees and power lines in southern Vermont.  It will be a driving (and walking) issue. 

Many places in the Northeast, including some valleys in Vermont, should briefly rise above freezing this afternoon, which would ease the hazardous conditions a bit. 

ARCTIC BLAST 

That Arctic cold wave is still on track to hit us Monday through Wednesday morning. 

A piece of the famous polar vortex is breaking off, something that happens often in the winter, and will be nearly overhead or just to our north Monday night and Tuesday. That will help prompt the bitter cold and wind.  Often, when this happens, we get these tiny, fine snowflakes coming down and that's probably what we'll see, too.

Expect worsening wind chills Monday, with those chills falling into the 20s and 30s below.  Actual temperatures will fall into the upper single numbers and teens below zero Monday night, and then not even make it up to zero Tuesday afternoon.

On Tuesday morning especially, if you can stand it,  check out Lake Champlain, as there's still a lot of open water.  You'll see plenty of steam devils, little whirlwinds of steam, and maybe, just maybe, some full-blown waterspouts. That's not guaranteed, but possible. 

Also, expect some lake effect snow downwind of Lake Champlain.  It won't amount to much, but those fine, thin flakes that come down in subzero cold waves make roads surprisingly slick.

As has been the pattern in recent winters, this cold wave should stay brief.  Strong southerly winds will take over Wednesday morning, which would maintain those bad wind chills. But by afternoon, it should be up to 20 degrees or so.

It won't actually get warm later in the week, but it will be tolerable. 

Contrary to what some online weather pundits were saying around New Year's Day, this won't be the year without a winter for us Vermonters. It turned colder at the start of the New Year, and we're going to stay with normal or below normal temperatures, probably to around the end of the month at least.

We haven't gotten all that much snow, and I still don't see any blockbuster storms on the horizon. But we're set up for occasional shots at light snow for the next couple weeks.  And who knows? During that time period, the stars, or at least the weather pattern could align for a somewhat larger snowstorm.  It's impossible to tell whether that will happen more than a few days in advance. So yeah, I'm kinda guessing.

That Bit Of Snow Was Nice, But Watch Out For Ice Sunday, Arctic Blast After That

This morning dawned clear and cold in St. Albans, 
Vermont with temperatures near 0 degrees. That's a
foretaste of some bitter Arctic air due here early next week.

 I suppose you could say the snow in Vermont over-performed a bit Friday, which is nice.  

I'm saying that because several places got more snow than forecast. But that's not saying much.  The forecast had said most places would get an inch or two, with locally up to four inches.

A number of places got around three inches of snow.  Rutland for some reason was a hot spot with a little over five inches of fluff. Stowe wasn't far behind with five inches. Looks like about two inches at my St. Albans, Vermont hacienda. 

Places along the coast fared much better with the snow. Several towns in eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island received a foot of snow, with Blue Hill, Massachusetts topping them all with 15 inches. Amounts of six to 10 inches were common in New Jersey, the New York City metro area and Long Island. 

Most of that snow was light and fluffy, though, because conditions aloft supported that kind of snow, temperatures at the surface were several degrees below freezing and there wasn't much wind to wreck the structure of snowflakes. 

Next up, another potential freezing rain nightmare for much of the Northeast Sunday, followed by that well-advertised Arctic blast. 

Ahead of the first of two cold fronts, winds several thousand feet overhead will be screaming from the southwest. That will warm a layer of the atmosphere aloft to above freezing. Those wind gusts and warm air won't be able to mix down to the surface all that well, so large swaths of Pennsylvania, New York and southwestern New England are under winter weather advisories for light freezing rain Sunday. 

There won't be much, but it will be enough to glaze the roads. It's a recipe for highway pileups. There's not much traffic on Sundays, so people might unwisely edge their speeds up. Then they won't be able to stop when there's a spin out in front of them, so there could be chain reaction crashes. 

 Given the bad track record of winter weather calamities on the roads in much of the nation this month, I'm a bit pessimistic.

Up here in Vermont, we'll get little precipitation with the cold fronts. Currently, only the two southernmost counties of the Green Mountain State are under winter weather advisories. But expect slick spots just about anywhere in the state on the roads tomorrow. 

Then we get into the Arctic air after the cold front blows by on Sunday night. Monday will start off cold, then a second front will drop temperatures further. 

By Monday night, it will be miserable.  More often than not, Vermont's coldest winter nights come on clear, calm nights.  This time, exceptionally cold air aloft will keep us frigid despite clouds and wind that would otherwise keep us a bit warmer. 

Those north winds will cause dangerous wind chills Monday through Tuesday, so watch it!

Tuesday still looks like it will be one of those zero degree days for highs. 

The Arctic blast looks to be a quick hitter. It'll be well below zero Tuesday night again, despite the core of the coldest air departing to our east. By Wednesday afternoon, it will be OK - teens and low 20s - then we get into average January air after that. (20s to around 30).

In Like A Lion: Plunging Temperatures, Snow Squalls High Winds, Wind Chills

This massive snow pile builds up in front of my house
in the winter from the shoveled driveway and the snow that
cascades off my roof. Photo from Feb. 23.......

 It was nice out early this morning in Vermont, relatively speaking.  

Temperatures were above freezing, the south winds carried the whiff of spring with them, that is until the skunk sprayed somewhere outside my St. Albans, Vermont house.

That skunk was itself a sign of spring. They become more active during early spring thaws. 

Please don't get used to spring, though.  We're for a rather rough winter ride on this first day of meteorological spring. March in Vermont is coming in like a very chilly lion. 

Expect plunging temperatures, the potential for some dangerous snow squalls, a flash freeze for your afternoon commute, winds strong enough to cause a few power outages, and by later tonight and tomorrow, some frigid wind chills.

Let's unpack it for you:

A first cold front was coming through pretty early this morning with some scattered, light rain showers. That'll put a cap on the temperatures today. Today's high temperatures will come this morning, and then start to fall behind this first cold front. 

The atmosphere a few thousand feet above us will be cooling faster than the air down where we live. Breaks of sunshine will - for while - temper the rate readings fall down here. That will help make the atmosphere more unstable this afternoon.  The greater the difference between the temperature on the ground and the air a few thousand feet up, the greater the chances of snow squalls.

So on warm days, like Sunday,  I start to shovel that massive
pile back onto the driveway to quickly melt on the blacktop
If I get rid of a lot of this pile, water doesn't back up into the
basement in the spring. I have to declare a halt to this snow pile
destruction this week because it will be too cold for any
snow to melt on the driveway.

These snow squalls will tend to hit this afternoon and evening, as the second Arctic cold front comes in 

This is very bad timing, as people who are not working from home will have to drive home in it.   

It'll be tricky, too. Some places will only get flurries, while just a couple of miles up the road, a blinding snow squall will be hitting and the water on the road will be turning to glare us. 

Surprises are bad. You're cruising along in your car at top speed and suddenly you're on a skating rink in a blizzard. 

So let's be careful out there.

The next problem is high winds.

The Arctic air will roar in this evening and overnight on strong northwest winds. Most of us will gust past 40 mph.  Some of us will have it worse, with gusts as high as 55 mph.  

That's especially true on the east slopes of the Green Mountains. The wind will gain momentum howling down the eastern slopes of those mountains, accelerating the wind. Though I doubt power outages will be widespread, they'll be happening. 

Along and after that comes the wind chill. By morning, actual temperatures will be near 0 with wind chills in the minus 20s. 

It'll be slightly better Tuesday afternoon with some sunshine and winds diminishing, but it will still be very cold for this time of year with highs in the teens.

This Arctic blast will go away really fast and we'll get a brief break Wednesday with highs in the mid and upper 30s.

But another regime of winter weather is hot on its heels.  The next one won't be as frigid as the one tonight and tomorrow, but it will last a lot longer.  Expect below normal temperatures and readings continuously below freezing Thursday through Sunday.  Highs on the coldest days will barely make it to 20, and nights will be in the single digits. 

During that cold spell during the late week and weekend, weak disturbances will zip through, creating frequent chances for snow showers, but fortunately nothing heavy.