Arctic Blast, Then Rather Big Storm Still In The Cards Here In Vermont

Here's one depiction of how Monday's expected 
storm will look on a weather map. As you can see,
it will be large and complex. Note the forecast
path and set up of the storm will change as
we get closer to the event. 

As of early this morning, there's no real change to the forecast of that bitter Arctic air that's on the way. The broad brush forecast on the expected storm Monday is still on track, too. 

Let's get into the details.

It's pretty murky and icy and icky this morning after a night of very light snow, freezing drizzle and freezing fog. Main roads are pretty well treated, but secondary roads and sidewalks are probably icy in spots, so be aware of that. 

It will remain rather gray and blah today though it might brighten up some this afternoon. There could still also be a few patches of freezing drizzle or light snow. Enjoy today's heat wave - temperatures will be in the upper 20s and low 30s - because we won't see much of that in the coming days and weeks. 

DANGEROUS ARCTIC BLAST

That really intense storm is taking shape far off the East Coast this morning, as expected. This is NOT the one coming Monday, the one I'll get to a little further down in this post.  The storm headed toward Nova Scotia and Newfoundland will really pound those areas with heavy precipitation, strong, potentially damaging winds and storm surges.

Nothing like that for us, but the squeeze play between that storm and strong Arctic high pressure moving in from Ontario toward Quebec will really stir some gusty winds up for us.

Wind chills will become awful Friday afternoon and especially Friday night.  Don't be fooled if you're leaving home from work Friday morning.  The morning won't be all that bad, with temperatures in the teens to near 20 and not-yet-strong winds. 

By the time you get home in the late afternoon, north winds will be blasting from the north with gusts exceeding 30 mph, and the temperature will have fallen to the low single numbers. 

Stay home and hibernate Friday night.  Winds will continue to gust past 30 mph as temperatures fall through the single numbers below zero and into the teens below zero late. This would bring wind chills down to as low as 40 below. Exposed skin can develop frostbite within 10 minutes in those conditions.

And for the love of God bring all your pets indoors by Friday afternoon, even the ones that are used to being outside during the winter. Now is also a good time to plug any drafty areas in your house that could end with frozen pipes.

I'm also super worried about the homeless population in Vermont, the rest of New England and in Quebec. There might not be room for all of them, or some might be reluctant to go into crowded shelters due to Covid.  It will be extremely dangerous to be outside for any length of time Friday night. 

This past November, Vermont expanded the eligibility for emergency housing in motels during extreme cold, and I hope that will help.

Saturday won't be much better as the winds continue to blow, albeit at slightly lower speeds. A clear, subzero night is coming Saturday night, too.  

THE STORM

Sunday will be cold and quiet with clouds starting to increase in the afternoon especially. The system by Sunday will have spread a swath of snow southeastward through the Midwest. Snow and ice will be falling probably from Arkansas to North Carolina by then.

This storm will scoop up plenty of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, turn the corner and head northeast on a beeline to New England by Monday.

We still don't know the exact track of this thing, which is typical for a storm that's four days away.  Usually the heaviest snow is in a band to the northwest of the storm.  It's possible Vermont could be in that band, but we just don't know yet. It's too early to know for sure.  

It the storm goes further to the east, we miss out on the heaviest snow.  If it goes inland more than expected, the heavy snow band will be to our west in New York, and we could also get a brief period of mixed precipitation. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington also says we'll need to keep an eye out for the risk of strong, even damaging winds on the west slopes of the Green Mountains. That may or may not happen. Again, it depends on the track of the storm. 

After the storm, whatever happens with it, the pattern favors repeated shots of Arctic air coming into the Great Lakes and Northeast. This January is going to be an exception.  Most months over the past couple of years have been warmer than normal.  This January looks like it's going to be quite a bit chillier than average.