Bright Side Of Vermont Snow Drought: Spring Flood Risk (So Far) Is Below Normal

Spring flooding in Cambridge, Vermont 2014. The
chances of significant spring flooding in Vermont are
lower than average this year, unless there is a very
radical shift in weather patterns over the next 3 months.

We definitely need the snow here in Vermont and we still don't have much in the forecast.  A dusting might fall today, and there might be something like an inch on Tuesday.  

Weather weenies are getting excited about a storm that is almost sure to develop off the East Coast next weekend. 

At this point it looks like it will go too far to the east to do much in Vermont, but there's still a chance it could swing more westward, giving us some snow. 

Don't hold your breath, though. 

The bright side to this winter's snow drought is that at last at this point, the chances of spring flooding look pretty low. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington release a spring flood outlook every other week in the winter, and released their latest one this past Thursday.  Let's just say at this point, there's no rush to buy sand bags to ward off any flooding. 

Experts look at the amount of water in the snow cover to seek clues as to how much runoff we could get in the spring. Snowfall is lacking.  Burlington is a foot behind normal for snowfall up to this point in the winter. Plus, there's isn't much water in thin snow cover. 

In the low elevations, the amount of "rain" in the snow cover as of Thursday is just 0.5 to one inch. 

At mid-elevations of between 1,000 and 2,500 feet of above sea level, the water equivalent is one to three inches, and at summits there's the equivalent of three to five inches of rain in the snow. 

That  below what you'd expect this time of year. 

Back in early January warm early winter weather meant there wasn't much ice on the rivers. However, it's been pretty cold lately, so the ice has been finally building up on the rivers.  

The cold air is going to continue so the river ice is going to keep spreading and thickening. Sometimes, this can cause some localized ice jams as the forming ice can block water flow.  If that happens, there won't be anything widespread.

But the thickening ice could cause larger ice jams in the spring if there's a sudden thaw and heavy rains that would break up the ice.  The chunks could then get stuck at bridge abutments or other obstacles and create ice jams. At this point, though, the risk doesn't seem higher than normal. 

By the way, current stream flows are at or below normal, and that's another factor in the spring flood outlook.

While the chances of spring flooding in Vermont are on the low side at this point, things could change.  February and March could prove to be excessively snowy months, which would bring a lot more potential water for spring runoff. Or March and April could be super rainy, which would also increase the flood risks.

Long range forecasts are iffy, but in that regard, I haven't seen any indications of a exceptionally wet or snowy regime for the next few months.