Saturday Evening Update: Strongest Cold Spell In 4 Years, Forecasts Still Shifting A Bit On Storm

Small adjustments to the National Weather Service snow
prediction map since this morning. Maybe a bit higher
in western Vermont than previous forecasts. Expect
further adjustments that could go up or down all
the way leading up to the storm's onset.

 It looks like the "high"  temperature today in Burlington, Vermont was minus 1, making this the first day that failed to get past zero degrees since January 6, 2018- a bit over four years. 

Tonight will probably be the coldest night in four years, too.

Winds in Vermont are lighter now, and skies are clear. Now that the sun has set, temperatures will really crash again.

 Most everyone will be in the teens below zero again tonight with some spots in the low 20s below. It will be a few degrees colder than last night, but the wind chill at least won't be nearly as bad.

After a cold, quiet Sunday, we're still looking at that storm Sunday.

Forecasts have been waffling back and forth a bit on this storm and probably will continue to do so right up to the event.

This morning, the forecasts had shifted the storm's predicted path a bit to the west, which would have cut the amount of snow that would fall on Vermont down a little bit. And it would have introduced a little sleet and rain into the storm.  This afternoon's forecast shifted things back a tiny bit to the east, ever so slightly increasing the forecasts on snow accumulations and reducing the sleet.

This back and forth will probably continue.  It's probably best to broad-brush this and continue saying most of Vermont should get four to eight inches of snow out of this. East slopes of the southern Green Mountains still look like they'll catch a little more than that. 

The band of heaviest snow, at least as of Saturday afternoon forecasts, still look like it will set up over western New York, maybe parts of the St. Lawrence Valley and on up into southwestern Quebec.

The snow will start well before dawn Monday in southern Vermont and quickly spread north. The Monday morning commute will be messy statewide. I expect school closures, at least among the schools that aren't already closed for Martin Luther King Day. 

Strong, possible damaging winds are still possible in spots, especially along the western slopes of the southern Green Mountains so we'll have to watch out for that.  We're looking at some power outages there during this storm. 

Needless to say, winter storm watches are up from late Sunday night through Monday night. The National Weather Service will probably upgrade the watch to a warning tomorrow. 

Temperatures sure aren't going to give us a break.  It might turn briefly mild-ish during Monday. But temperatures will crash once again as the storm departs to the north Monday night. It won't get as cold as it is now, but wind chills will get nasty again as temperatures fall into the single digits and winds switch around to the north and gust to 30 mph or more.

Though snow will be tapering off Monday night in most places except the central and northern mountains, blowing snow will continue to be a problem with those gusty winds.

There's no immediate prospects for another fairly large snowstorm after this one. At least there's nothing showing up in the forecasts at the moment. But one blast of Arctic air after another still looks like it wants to continue through the end of the month at least. 

As always, I'll offer more details in tomorrow's Sunday morning post.