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| Screen shot of the blizzard in Plymouth, Massachusetts this morning. This is a screen shot of a video from @mikeseidel via Twitter. |
Torrential snow and increasing wind were already socking Delaware, coastal New Jersey and Long Island as of 6:30 a.m. and those conditions were mowing their way into eastern New England.
Forecasts continue to call for record snowfalls in some areas and dangerous blizzard conditions. Nobody should be out driving in the blizzard zone today, which extends from Delaware to Maine.
Even with the storm underway, there's always going to be slight adjustments in the predictions for this storm. We call those last minute adjustments "nowcasts" instead of forecasts.
Overnight guidance and observations have nudged the snow area ever so slightly west, and perhaps intensified the already ridiculous expected snowfall rates in eastern New England.
Since we here in Vermont aren't getting the worst of this, I'll offer the Green Mountain State rundown on this storm further down in this post. There have been a few minor potential adjustments to the storm forecast here in Vermont.
THE STORM ITSELF
As a weather geek, it's been fascinating to watch this storm explode from a disorganized patch of showers in the Atlantic Ocean southeast of North Carolina to a blossoming mega-storm.
The storm is an obvious bomb, meaning its still strengthening at a rapid rate. It's still forecast to pass near the "bench mark" southeast of New England at 40 degrees north, 70 degrees west, by later this morning and northward into the Gulf of Maine this afternoon and evening.
Pretty much always with a powerful nor'easter an especially heavy band of snow sets well west and northwest of the storm center and this storm is no exception.
Meteorologists anticipated this and made forecasts with huge accumulations accordingly. So far, the heaviest snow has set up right where they were anticipated.
WHAT'S HAPPENING
This is a fast-developing situation, of course, in a heavily populated area of the nation, so the reports will come in fast and furiously today. I'll update as warranted through the day.
In the predawn hours, an especially heavy band of snow set up right along the New Jersey coast. Winds were increasing, too, and, as the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, New Jersey noted, whiteout conditions were occurring and travel was impossible.
By 6:30 a.m., some areas of New Jersey near the coast were already closing in on a foot of new snow. The New Jersey coast snow band was expected to last into midday, so I wouldn't be surprised if reports of two feet of snow came in from there.
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| Satellite view of the storm developing overnight. |
Going north if anything it gets worse.
Those harsh and dangerous conditions spread rapidly north and enveloped Long Island before dawn and were reaching into eastern New England. As the offshore nor'easter continues to mature, this band of snow was expanding and intensifying, in an early morning statement.
I won't be that surprised if some spots have accumulation rates as high as five inches per hour on Long Island and eastern New England.
Since the nor'easter is strengthening, so is the wind. Before dawn, gusts as high as 66 mph in Delaware. That will only get worse and quickly spread northward later this morning. Later, higher wind reports started coming in up in New England: Gusts of 69 mph in Nantucket, 68 mph in Dennis, Massachusetts and 66 mph in Fall River, Massachusetts.
Wind gusts will probably go higher than that by the time we're done here.
As of 6:30 a.m. the real heavy, blinding snow and wind were just getting into southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Boston was still reporting just light snow but by the time you read this, that would have changed.
Travel will soon be impossible in this area, if it isn't already. Massachusetts officials were wise enough to ban tractor trailers from the roads in much of the state to help prevent the kind of trapped vehicle nightmare that hit Virginia at the beginning of the month.
Travel bans are also in effect in surrounding states. Amtrak has suspended service in much of the region. And I'll laugh my ass off if you even try to get a flight out of Logan in Boston today.
New Hampshire and Maine will probably wait until this afternoon to see the brunt of this storm. Things might be OK in Portland and Bangor now, but watch out. It's you're turn once we get past noon
VERMONT IMPACTS
We're still not going to see huge effects from this storm. However, there's an interesting squeeze play happening.
On one hand, it seems like at least light snow might want to go a wee bit further west than earlier thought. Light snow had reached Rutland before dawn, for instance. On the other hand, the air feeding down from Quebec is super dry, so that air could easily squelch and evaporate any snow that wants to head west of the Green Mountains.
Which will win?
For now, it's a steady state forecast for the day, with up to five inches of wind blown snow expected in the extreme southeast and northeast corners of Vermont. The Connecticut Valley is still forecast to receive one to three inches.
At this point, I'm betting on the dry air winning out. The snow in Rutland later stopped as drier air kept filtering in. That's a sign right there that it will be difficult to get snow, especially the more you get away from the Connecticut River.
Don't be fooled by today's radar images. The radar will show snow extending across Vermont into eastern New York. A lot of that will be snow falling from clouds but evaporating on the way down due to that feed of dry air to the north.
It isn't that windy in Vermont yet, because the storm is still so far south of us. But there's more squeeze play to talk about. Once the storm gets near New England, the pressure gradient between that deep, deep low pressure nor'easter and Arctic high pressure to the north will increase the winds.
North/south oriented valleys especially will see gusts to 40 mph this afternoon. That with continued cold temperatures will make today raw and cold with low wind chills.
For those Vermonters who are bummed this storm is missing us, there's a glimmer of hope down the road.
Although there may actually be some thawing temperatures later in the week, a moisture-soaked system seems to be on its way around Thursday. It might just be cold enough in northern Vermont to squeeze out a bunch of snow.
That's not a done deal by any means, but it's something to watch.
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