Forces Of Winter Continue To Advance: For Vermont, Wind, A Little Snow, Cold Blasts

The GFS (American) computer model takes Friday's
nor'easter relatively far off the New England coast,
giving Vermont not much snow. Please note this is just
ONE of many scenarios and forecasts could change.
But for now, it's beginning to look like it's no biggie.

With the new year, winter is really asserting itself  in much of the nation, and here in little old Vermont. 

The cold and snow and ice isn't breaking many records, but it sure is being felt. Various winter weather and storm advisories today stretch pretty much coast to coast across the northern tier of states. 

A winter storm watch is in effect as far south as Tennessee, and a wind chill advisory is up for places as far south as the north Texas panhandle. 

Let's break it down, focusing mostly, but not exclusively on the Northeast, including Vermont. We'll of course include an update on that nor'easter for Friday that's we've been talking about. 

Overall, now through probably late in the month, we've fallen into a mostly cold and in my opinion, mostly boring weather pattern.  A persistent flow from the northwest will send weak storms our way. Most of them will be moisture-starved and won't create much snow. But each of the storms will bring a packet of cold, Arctic air our way.

That said, it's always possible that one or two of these disturbances during this month could spin up a nor'easter or two and give us chances of decent snows, but most of these little storms will be yawners, aside from wind and cold. 

As of this morning, computer models seem to be settling on a slightly more eastern track for Friday's expected nor'easter.  If that happens, we in Vermont won't get very much snow out of it.  There's still a chance it could come closer to the coast and give us a decent dump, but the chances of that happening are beginning to wane. 

Besides that, this nor'easter might not  be as dynamic as that quick hitting but powerful storm that hit the Mid-Atlantic states Monday. Which means even where Friday's storm focuses its precipitation, it won't be an extreme blockbuster. That said, the waters off the East Coast are warm, and that could contribute added energy to the storm, setting off a period of heavy precipitation, most likely in eastern New England. 

Before we get to Friday, there's some other weather to talk about. Today, a little disturbance is moving north near the New England coast.  That's spreading freezing rain over most of eastern New England this morning. Not much ice is accumulating, but it's definitely well enough to make some dangerous driving conditions there. 

That freezing rain should stay pretty much east of Vermont.  We will get some gusty winds today, especially in the Champlain Valley.  We'll also get a brief warmup, with temperatures sneaking above freezing for a short time in many Vermont valleys. 

It'll be a little colder tomorrow, then we'll get Friday's light snow out of the way, then we'll have a quiet and cold Saturday. 

It's looking like a cold front due Sunday means business. It'll get windy again. We'll probably have some mixed precipitation. Not a lot, but maybe enough to make roads tricky again for the third weekend in a row. 

That cold front Sunday is beginning to look like it will bring down a fairly brief, but pretty intense Arctic cold snap. 

This could prove to be the nastiest Vermont winter cold wave in three years. But that's not saying much. In the past, temperatures would routinely go down to 20 below or worse almost every winter. Nowadays, cold waves are just not that chilly, most of the time.  

 The last time it was as cold as 15 below in Burlington was on January 22, 2019. It could conceivably get nearly that cold early next week.  (As an aside, I don't mean to imply really, REALLY bad cold waves with 20 to 40 below temperatures in Vermont have become impossible. They are certainly possible. But climate change has made such intense cold waves less likely).

Beyond early next week, that pattern of quick, lame warmups with light precipitation followed by quick hitting cold snaps looks to continue, possibly through the entire month of January.