Happy New Year! Now Deal With The Storms

A colorful U.S. map from the National Weather Service means
plenty of bad or even dangerous weather in much of the nation.

 Let's just say there's no rest for the weary for meteorologists on this first day of 2022. 

Put it this way: When the National Weather Service home page is really colorful, then lots of things, mostly bad, are going on.  

Are we going to start the year with more weather disasters?  We had enough of that in 2021, that's for sure! Today, a few people are going to be in trouble. It's only a question of how widespread this will be.

I'll get into the national picture first, then I'll focus on Vermont's decidedly inclement weather.

The two big areas of trouble today are from Arkansas through western Tennessee and all of Kentucky (again!) and into West Virginia.  Flooding is and will be an issue today, and some of that will be substantial. 

Precipitable water, a measure of how much moisture in available in the atmosphere for rainfall, is at or near record levels for this time of year from Arkansas to the Ohio Valley, so the potential is really there. Bands of heavy rain have set up there, and will continue today. As of mid-morning, there were already flash flood warnings in central Kentucky. 

The next big worry zone is Tennessee, northern Alabama and northern Mississippi and northern Alabama. Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are a good bet in this region.  As of this morning, forecasters knew there's trouble brewing,  but what was unclear is if supercells that are separated from one another can get going in this region. If that happens, then some tornadoes could be really violent. So that's a worry.

Elsewhere, a winter storm warning is up from Kansas to Illinois due to a band of heavy snow with cold temperatures today.  After a week or more of record warm temperatures, freeze warnings are up in southern Texas. And in parts of Arizona.  

Frigid wind chills are shivering folks in places like North Dakota, but I suppose they're used to that. Still, temperatures of 20 below with wind chills as low as 55 below are pretty awful.

VERMONT IMPACTS

The Green Mountain State is not expecting anything as dire as above, but we are still totally on track for some rough weather. 

It's damp, foggy and mild again to start the new year. There won't be much precipitation around, just maybe some patchy light rain and drizzle.  

The latest thinking on snow totals from the National 
Weather Service in South Burlington. Up to five inches
in northwest Vermont by Sunday afternoon, but very 
little in the far south 

Steadier precipitation comes in toward midnight, starting as rain. But things will pretty quickly head downhill overnight and into the morning as first freezing rain, sleet and snow come into play. A winter weather advisory is wisely in effect for all but far southern Vermont. 

It'll be a gradual northwest to southeast process. Although the timing of the following might change somewhat, this is how the National Weather Service in South Burlington sees the changeover:

Towards 10 p.m, the northwest corner of Vermont would start to change over, and that would get to down to Burlington toward midnight or a little after. Montpelier would start to change over around 1 or 2 a.m, but the changeover wouldn't reach far southern Vermont until early Sunday afternoon.

The snow or mixed precipitation would be heaviest from before dawn to around noon or shortly thereafter.

Snow totals have been upped a little in far northwestern Vermont with perhaps a five inch total in places like St. Albans. Then it would go down to maybe three or four inches near Burlington, two inches near Montpelier, and very little in far southern Vermont. Down there, the changeover is coming late in the game, so there won't be time for much snow to accumulate

During the changeover, the longest period of freezing rain at this point seems like it would target central Vermont. Even there, only about 0.1 inches of ice might accumulate before things go over to snow. So, as mentioned last evening, there won't be enough ice to mess much with trees and power lines, but enough to make the roads dangerous.

If you have to drive anywhere in Vermont, especially the north, do it by late this evening. Or wait until late Sunday afternoon.  It will be cold by then, with temperatures falling through the 20s and into the teens. The roads will still contain icy patches, but at least the snow will be tapering off and ending, at least in the valleys.

Conditions will be variable for the rest of the week. It'll be cold Monday, then warmer by midweek.  Some computer models are toying with the idea of a pretty decent snowfall in Vermont Friday, while others give us nothing much. So stay tuned.