Friday Evening Update: Yeah, It's Freaking Cold; No Big Changes In Monday Storm Forecast

A cold sunset in St. Albans today leading up to what will be
the coldest night in years in Vermont. We're still on 
track for a Monday storm, too. 

 As expected, skies mostly cleared out and temperatures tumbled this afternoon as increasing north winds drove Arctic air from Quebec down on us. 

Wind chills were below zero already in all but far southern Vermont as of 5 p.m. as that area is the last to get the brunt of the cold air.

Wind gusts late this afternoon were in the 20 to 30 mph range, and those should increase some this evening. That wind chill warning for "real feel" temperatures in the 30s to low 40s below zero remain in effect tonight and for a good chunk of Saturday. 

The strong north wind ripping down the length of still partly open Lake Champlain will probably generate a band of lake effect snow somewhere in the southern Champlain Valley overnight. As of 5 p.m., there were signs on radar that band was beginning to form in areas near Vergennes.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington helpfully, I guess, tells us it could be worse.  Wind chills around Burlington tonight should get down to about 34 below. Since they began keeping track of wind chills in 1948, the worst wind chill on record in Burlington was 51 below on January 15, 1957.  There's at least nine examples in the past of wind chills at or below minus 41.  The most recent awful wind chill in this category was 47 below in January, 1994.

In any event, tonight is still awful and too dangerous to venture outside. Stay home this evening. Just snuggle under a blanket and with your cats and dogs, fix some hot chocolate and binge watch Netflix or something. 

Just don't binge watch every last show or movie you're interested in. You're probably going to need Netflix again on Monday.

The National Weather Service has hoisted a winter storm watch for Monday statewide. Both the morning and evening commutes are probably going to be pretty messy. 

Forecasts haven't changed much since this morning, but more detail is slowly being added to the forecast.

Winds with this storm will be mostly from the east.  That means winds will be forced to rise along the east slopes of the Green Mountains and the Adirondacks.  If air rises, more and heavier precipitation falls. Accumulations will be deeper on the east slopes with this one. 

On the west slopes of the Greens, sinking air discourages precipitation, so amounts will probably be lighter there. At least initially. More on that in a minute. 

Sinking air warms the atmosphere, so that could cause brief periods of sleet, at least as it stands now.

Usually, a band of heavy snow sets up well to the northwest of a storm like this.  At this point that heavier band looks like it would be in New York's St. Lawrence Valley.

if the storm ends up further east than forecast that heavier band could come near or into Vermont. That looks unlikely at this point, but it's still possible.

As the storm begins to pull away later Monday and Monday night, winds will turn to the northwest. That will mean it's the western slopes' turn to get the snow.  So, the western slopes of the Greens might at least partly make up for the snow they'll miss out on earlier Monday.

Overall, current forecasts give five to eight inches of snow to the northern half of Vermont, Southern Vermont and eastern slopes, and New York's St. Lawrence Valley would get eight to 12 inches.

Do note these amounts are really subject to change.  i'm sure there will be further refinements to the forecasts on how this storm will play out, and how much snow it will dump where.