Thursday Evening Update: New England Braces For A Wallop

The National Weather Service office in Boston is conservatively
forecasting up to two feet of snow, propelled by winds of
 up to 65 mph in eastern Massachusetts. It's actually
quite possible that this area could get three feet of snow.

I usually don't do twice or more daily updates on a weather event that is only expected to graze Vermont, but the upcoming storm is so big that it warrants attention.  Especially since it is hitting pretty close by, in parts of New England south and east of Vermont. 

This isn't to say Vermont will have no effects from this storm. There still might actually be a plowable snow, perhaps four inches in the far southeast corner of the state if things tilt our way some. 

Plus, the gusty north winds and frigid temperatures here on the western periphery of the storm won't exactly make us Vermonters comfortable

The developing storm still had a lot of moving parts as of late this afternoon, so it wouldn't surprise me if some last minute changes to forecasts pop up.  But during the day, the prognosis for this storm has remained relatively unchanged since this morning. 

Weather alerts are expanding, though as we get closer to the storm and its impacts gradually become more clear. By late afternoon, winters storm watches extended along the immediate East Coast from northeastern North Carolina to the eastern half of Maine. 

The watch was upgraded to a winter storm warning for coastal Delaware and New Jersey.

Many areas from eastern Delaware, coastal New Jersey, Long Island, and the eastern third of New England could easily experience full-on blizzard conditions during this.  It's likely to be a particularly windy storm, with many areas experiencing gusts to 65 mph.  

Many coastal areas are bracing for destructive storm surges and battering waves. Video from Live Storms Media showed equipment trying to shore up sand dunes in front of beach homes in Sandwich Massachusetts, for instance. 

Storm chasers are positioning themselves along coastal areas, too.

Some of the storm's ingredients were already spreading snow through places like Colorado, northern Texas and parts of Oklahoma. 

To oversimplify, energy is still forecast to start consolidating off the northeast coast of Florida during the day Friday.  The storm will strengthen explosively while heading northward,  east of the Mid-Atlantic states during the day Saturday and past New England late Saturday afternoon through the night. 

A band of extremely heavy snow will form west of the storm center, though nobody is 100 percent sure where that might be.  Best guess is in southeastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island and eastern Long Island. Wherever it sets up, snowfall rates of more than three inches per hour, combined with those strong winds will create whiteouts. It will be extremely dangerous in these areas to be outside or driving in those conditions. 

Parts of southeast New England could easily receive a quick two feet of snow out of this, with three feet definitely not out of the question.  Imagine the snowdrifts, too, with that much snow and that much wind. 

Back here in Vermont, the best chances of anybody seeing snow is down by Brattleboro.  It's hard to say how much they'll get, but unless there's a huge surprise, expect less than six inches down there. The rest of eastern Vermont could receive a dusting. Northwestern Vermont still looks to receive nothing. 

Saturday still won't be a day you'll want to be outside. Actual temperatures will not rise much beyond 5 above. North winds will drive wind chills into the 20s below zero. Overcast skies mean there won't be any sun to brighten things up or add any modest warming. 

The good news is the cold snap Friday into early Sunday is going to be the last one for a little while. Unlike the pattern we've seen much of this month, there won't be another Arctic cold front lurking to come through to squelch any early week warming trends.

In fact, it's still looking like we're in for a thaw Wednesday and Thursday. 

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