Vermont Winter: No Big Changes To Forecast So Far: Bitter To Some Snow

So far, there has been very little change in 
the expected path of Monday's storm.
This National Weather Service prediction
map for Monday morning has the storm
in the same spot at that time as a 
forecast released 24 hours earlier. 

 It was actually kind of nice out when I took the dogs outside before dawn this morning in St. Albans, Vermont.  

Temperatures were in the comfortable low 20s and there was no wind. That was my last chance to enjoy some reasonable winter weather for awhile. 

We're still on track to endure an absolutely brutal cold wave.  We're still also up for what at this point looks like a gusty, mid-sized snowfall.  But that part of the forecast will change. 

Things will get worse and worse today, even as the pesky low clouds and fog we've had for more than a day finally get flushed out. 

The sun will come out, but temperatures will fall all day as north winds get stronger and stronger. As you leave for work this mild Friday morning, bring a hat and jacket that can stand up to frigid weather for your late afternoon trip home. 

The wind chill warning goes into effect this evening and continues into Saturday. Most of us will go below zero around sunset or a little after that.  Most of us will end up in the teens below zero overnight. 

Most Vermont winter nights that get down to those levels have mostly calm winds. Not tonight. An incredibly strong nor'easter that's thankfully too far east of us to give us its full effects will still provide a lot of wind. Some gusts will reach 35 mph.  With those cold temperatures, forecasters are still expecting wind chills as low as 40 below.

Be happy this storm will just give us wind. In Nova Scotia, Environment Canada is forecasting 6 to 18 inches of snow winds up to 55 mph and storm surge flooding along the coast. 

Tonight is not the night to go out and party and get drunk. I've seen a few instances of people losing their judgement and getting into big trouble or even dying in this weather.  Also, as I mentioned in previous posts, perhaps your doggos can skip exercise for a day or two.  Let them go out and do their business and that's it.

By Sunday, it will be a little warmer (but still cold!) so that you and the pups can go out and play in what little snow is out there.   The good news for snow lovers is that at least a little more snow is still in the forecast. 

THE STORM

You can trace the expected weird path of our much advertised storm on the home page of that National Weather Service now. 

Winter storm warnings, watches and advisories start out in North Dakota and dive southeastward through Iowa and Missouri along the storm track. Then, winter storm watches extend east from Missouri to the Carolinas, then up the Appalachian chain as far north as New York.  For us, it's a little soon for the National Weather Service to start with any advisories on this storm. 

The early guess on this storm for us in Vermont is it would end up being a mid-sized to pretty decent storm. If current forecasts hold, the heaviest band of snow with this would be over northwestern New York.  In Vermont, we'll get an initial thump of snow, then dry air punching into the system would shut the snow down for awhile. 

There could also be some mixed precipitation in southern Vermont. Then, Monday evening, as the storm pulls away to the northeast, a little more snow would come in on the back side of the storm. An early guess from the National Weather Service in South Burlington gives us three to six inches of snow, with locally higher amounts.

The NWS emphasizes this is just a first stab at a prediction.  Forecasts will definitely be refined as we get closer to the event. 

That's not a consensus forecast either. I've seen other predictions that give Vermont four to eight inches of snow, and even a few that call for 6 to 12 inches.  In other words, we really don't know yet how much snow we'll get out of this. 

There's still a possibility of strong winds on the west slopes of the Green Mountains, but even that is in question. 

So yeah, the forecast for this storm is still squishy.  We know there's going to be some sort of storm Monday.  We don't yet know if the storm will pull any stunts and surprise as with something. 

Any snow we get will stick around.  Meteorologists and the computer models they follow to help make their forecasts are remarkably consistent about keeping the Great Lakes and Northeast mostly colder than normal through at least the end of the month.