Storm Is Here, Obviously. A Messy Vermont Monday

Monday morning's new snow accumulation map from
NWS Burlington continues to show the Champlain
Valley and Northeast Kingdom "shadowed" from deep
snow accumulations while east facing slopes 
get plastered. Click on th map to make it
bigger and easier to see.

The well-advertised storm is here in Vermont, and you're not going to like your drive into work this morning. If you can work from home, you are lucky.  

Trends continue to give us a slightly more westward tracked, warmer storm, which has implications for this afternoon and evening that you might not like, either. We'll get to that in a bit, but first, this morning. 

The storm has pushed a band of pretty heavy precipitation on its front side all the way up the East Coast and it's in Vermont for the morning commute.

It was snowing at a good clip pretty much everywhere in Vermont a bit before dawn and that will continue into mid-morning for most of us. Precipitation will turn lighter from south to north later this morning. 

Before that, east facing slopes of the Green Mountains are really getting plastered this morning. There was already four inches of new snow in Wallingford, Vermont as of a little before 7 a.m. for instance. Those are the areas that get the most snow, face the worst visibility and the worst driving conditions. I can see six to 10 inches of snow piling up in just a few hours in those areas.

Snow is lighter in the areas "shadowed" from the fire hose of moisture coming from the east. These "shadowed" areas include anything west of the Green Mountains and in the Northeast Kingdom, where the White Mountains are blocking the moisture. 

 Some snow is getting through, though, even if there are some gaps in the snow. Still, it was snowing at a light to moderate pace  in most of the Champlain Valley as of 6 a.m. I saw no reason why that shouldn't continue for a few hours. Roads are snow-covered and slick, of course. Visibility is poor.  You'll definitely need some extra time to get to work. 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington to me seemed wise to cut expected snow totals in the Champlain Valley a bit to around four or five inches. 

I noticed southeast winds were gusting to 33 mph at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington as of 6 a.m. That was one of the windier place in Vermont and an indication that downslope winds off the west slopes of the Green Mountains were reaching well into the Champlain Valley. (Interestingly, though, winds diminished down to less than 10 mph and shifted to the north temporarily as of 7 a.m. ).

Where downslope winds blow today, accumulations will be less. 

The snow that is falling is getting increasingly wet and heavy as the air warms up. (It was already 32 degrees in Bennington at 6 a.m.)  Winds along the west slopes of the Greens, as noted above, are getting strong.  Winds in some spots could gust to at least 55 mph during the worst of it a little later this morning. 

The snow and the wind make power outages inevitable. The strongest burst of downslope winds were moving south to north in tandem or just behind the band of heavy snow. The strong winds had apparently already reached Bennington County as of 6:30 a.m. as Vermont Outage Map showed at least 1,500 homes and businesses without power there.

The headline to this post mentions the word "messy."  Here's why:  It's going to warm up even more than we thought.  Most valleys in Vermont will reach the mid-30s for a time, with a few spots reaching 40 degrees.  Spotty light rain will accompany this ever-so-brief thaw.

The ground is cold, so any exposed surface, like a plowed back road or sidewalk will ice over. It will be above freezing, but it's been well below zero lately, so the surfaces are cold. So the rain will freeze anyway.

Even worse, as the storm blusters past us, cold air will rush in behind it late this afternoon and evening. Water on the roads will freeze, and get covered by a burst of snow. That leads to a stubborn layer of ice on the roads which will be difficult to clean up.

Temperatures will crash into the single numbers tonight, so things will freeze hard. The snow will taper off, too.

So: Total accumulations look like they will be three to eight inches in Vermont, except six to 12 inches on east facing slopes. There might be local amounts as high as 18 inches in a couple spots in the southern Green Mountains. 

After a cold Tuesday, a weak system will warm us up to 30 degrees with a little light snow. Then it's back into the subzero awfulness for Thursday into the weekend.  At this point, it looks like the Arctic high pressure will keep another nor'easter way off the coast, but who knows? We've been surprised before.