As We Wait In The Cold, What Will That Big Weekend Nor'easter Do?

We know there's going to be a really big storm near
 New England Saturday, but there's still some
questions on how it's going to play out. 
Vermont might or might not get a bunch
of snow out of this. 

UPDATE 5 p.m. WEDNESDAY

Just a quick update to this morning's post, since all eyes are on that nor'easter that's planned for the weekend.

If you were praying for a big dump of snow from this in Vermont, hopes are fading. 

The European computer models, which had a more westward track, meaning a greater chance for a bunch of snow, is trending in the direction of the American models, which have been largely indicating a miss for the Green Mountain State.

The storm is still two or three days away, so it's still possible the computer models and meteorologists are not yet picking up on something that would drive the storm more toward the coast, but few if any people are seeing it. 

If the computer models out now are accurate, then Vermont could still get a wee bit of snow out of this, especially east of the Green Mountains.  Eastern New England at this point is still in the crosshairs for a huge, disruptive storm. 

Stay tuned for updates, with a  more comprehensive one tomorrow morning.

Meanwhile, bundle up for another frigid Vermont night. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

Yeah, yeah, I know it's cold out again today.

As has been the case with these cold waves, northern New York was again the prime target of this latest shot of Arctic air. 

It was in the 20s below in much of that area this morning, with Ogdensburg once again being one of the nippiest places at 24 below.

Vermont was "warmer" I suppose, with the lowest readings in the northwestern corner of the state, where it approached 10 below.  The rest of the north was in the single digits below zero, with some places still above zero in the far south.

Today will be another one of those bright and sunny and cold days we've seen so many of this month.  Highs should make it into the single numbers this afternoon.

Tonight is another ice box night everywhere, but especially east of the Green Mountains, where some more 20s below spots should appear. Most of the rest of us will once again visit the teens below zero.

'Thursday will be a little better with readings getting to near 20 ahead of the next cold front, which will arrive Friday to put us back below zero by Friday night. 

Then things get interesting

THE BIG NOR'EASTER

Well, somebody is going to really get rocked by this storm, but the devil is still in the details. Vermont is near the western fringe of the the "clobbered" zone.

Here are what we know so far.  As usual, forecasts are subject to change as new data comes in. 

The storm is forecast to start forming off the east coast of Florida Friday morning,  and move at a pretty good clip pretty much due north, so it will be southeast of Cape Code by around noon or so Saturday.

The nor'easter is expected to be a "bomb cyclone" meaning it will explosively strengthen in its trek northward to near New England.  By the time it reaches New England, the storm will be capable of producing blizzard conditions, winds gusting to as high as 70 mph near the coast and storm surges and coastal flooding.   

Whether Vermont gets a lot of snow from most nor'easter
depends on whether the storm goes west or east of the 40/70 
bench mark, which is the black dot on this map. West of
the benchmark increases the chances Vermont gets a 
good deal of snow. Image is from NYskiblog.com

Whether all that mayhem happens and which real estate might be targeted all depends on the exact track and to an extent the timing of the storm. 

Meteorologists look at something called the "benchmark" when forecasting the type and ferocity of nor'easters passing by New England.

The benchmark are the coordinates latitude 40 degrees north and longitude 70 degrees west, which is southeast of New England..

Generally speaking, if a nor'easter goes a little to the south and east of the benchmark, then southern and eastern New England get the heaviest snow and Vermont misses out.   If a nor'easter goes a little to the west and north of the benchmark, then the coast could get mixed precipitation and Vermont stands a better chance of getting some decent snows.

This benchmark thinking doesn't always work, but it's usually a good rule of thumb.

With this expected monster storm, the thinking is it will be somewhere near the benchmark when it comes by New England.  Most of the American computer models take it a little east of the benchmark.

That would mean eastern New England would get clobbered and Vermont would be more or less spared, especially northwestern areas.

The European model wants to take this storm a little west of the benchmark, which would put Vermont in play. Especially eastern Vermont. 

I'm not sure this means much, but so far this winter, the American model has been forecasting storms with more accuracy than the European model, so there's that.

The bottom line is, we're not exactly sure about Vermont yet. At this point, I'd say chances are pretty good that northwestern Vermont would get little or nothing out of this aside from frigid, strong north winds. Eastern Vermont might or might not get a decent snowstorm out of this.  I, along with actual meteorologists who are much smarter than I am, are on the fence with what'll happen east of the Green Mountains. 

It's only Wednesday, so there's time for the storm's expected track to become more clear.  

My advice: If you were planning a trip to anywhere in the eastern half of New England this Saturday, go ahead and cancel those plans right now. In Vermont, have the snow shovels ready, but there's no guarantee you'll actually use them this weekend.