Arctic Sea Ice Melting Slows Despite Hotter Atmosphere

Dire warnings that Arctic sea ice would be a thing of
the past by several years ago hasn't happened. A 
new study explains why those warnings were
false alarms - but only for now. 

This sounds like great news:

Despite the increasing pressure of climate change, Arctic sea ice decline has slowed quite a bit. 

The slowdown has been noticeable in all months of the year.  The month of September has seen no statistically significant decline in sea ice over the past two decades. 

The melt rate per the past 20 years has been at least twice as slow as the longer term rate. 

But when it comes to climate change, there's never good news.  This slower melt won't last forever. More on that in a bit. 

Arctic sea ice is important because what goes on at the North Pole doesn't stay at the North Pole. If the ice went away entirely during summers,   the pace of Earth's warming could increase. White ice reflects away the sun's heat. Blue ocean water absorbs it. 

The Arctic is already warming faster than the rest of the planet and if the ice goes, the heating up there would really ramp up. 

An ice-free Arctic would accelerate climate change and throw things even more off balance than they already are. That, in turn could lead to even bigger climate extremes than we're seeing now.

Even if all that climate bad stuff doesn't happen, an ice-free Arctic would invite even more ships, resource mining,  geopolitical conflict, population and everything else that would dangerously pollute what has been a rather pristine environment.

THE STUDY

This slow Arctic melt all comes from research recently published in Geophysical Research Letters. 

Per the study's abstract:

"Most of the evidence from these climate models suggests that natural climate variations have played a large part in slowing the human-driven loss of sea ice. However, it is not entirely certain whether changes in the human influence on climate (the "forced response") have also contributed.

Overall, while it may sound surprising that Arctic sea ice loss has slowed down even as global temperatures hit record highs, the climate modeling evidence suggests we should expect periods like this to occur somewhat frequently."

The researchers ran climate models which show natural cycles can create these pauses in Arctic melting.

"Even though there is increased emissions (and) increased global temperatures, you can still get periods where you have very minimal loss of Arctic sea ice for sustained periods," said Mark England, lead author of the study. 

Energy always transfers back and forth between oceans and the atmosphere, with the oceans able to store much more energy than the air. 

There's natural cycles in which the oceans take in a little more energy than normal, which makes the atmosphere a tad cooler. Those cycles also sometimes allow the atmosphere to keep a slightly greater share of energy, so the climate warms up. 

The study concluded that natural cycles kept waters around the Arctic a little cooler, so the rate of ice loss has slowed. 

Mark England,  lead author of the study, said that without climate change, sea ice might well have expanded during the cycle we're in now.  

The study helps explain why dire predictions of an imminent summer time ice-free Arctic never came to pass. 

Sea ice in the Arctic hit record minimums in 2007 and 2012, leading to speculation the Arctic could have its first ice-free summer by 2020.  In hindsight, the researchers wrote, that idea was overly alarmist. 

MELT TO RESUME?

All good things must come to an end, though, and so will this cycle that's been preserving the Arctic sea ice. 

The current melting slowdown could last another five to 10 years, according to the climate models and the study. When that happens (It's a when, not an if) the ice loss would accelerate and at that point we might actually see the demise of Arctic sea ice during summers. 

In the short term, the ice up there is clearly in short supply up in the Arctic, despite the slowdown in melting. 

In its recent July climate report, the National Centers for Environmental Information said Arctic sea ice was the fourth smallest on record for July, at 420,000 square miles below average.  

Another melt zone scientist watch closely is Greenland. That ice will never entirely go away, at least not for hundreds, more likely thousands of years, if ever

Greenland matters even more than the Arctic because whatever melts off of Greenland becomes sea level rise.   If the ice on the Arctic ocean melts, it doesn't really raise se levels. It's like the ice in your gin and tonic melting. 

Greenland is probably subject to cyclical weather and climate patterns too, but the research we're talking about in this post didn't address that. 

This year, the Greenland melt has been above normal once again, but it's not setting records. There was a lot of melting between July 7 and 20, which tipped the scales to above the 1981 -2019 average for total melt extent, say the National Snow and Ice Data Center. But overall, the number of days with melting lagged behind some of the warmer summers in the recent past. 

There has been a last minute spike in Greenland ice melting in the past few days, but once that tapers off, that'll be mostly it for 2025.   By early September, the Greenland melt season is pretty much over.  

Ominous Stat: Arctic Sea Ice Extent Way Under-Performed This Winter And Set A Bad Record

The winter "maximum" sea ice extent in the Arctic was
the lowest on record this year. That's an ominous sign for 
more climate change coming down the pike.

 It's official.

The extent of Arctic sea ice, which normally reaches its peak in March, was pretty pathetic this year. 

It's a sign climate change continues unabated, and it's a factor that could help accelerate the problem. 

First, the immediate issue at hand, per the Washington Post:

 "Just 5.53 million square miles of ice had formed as of March 22 this year - the smallest maximum extent in the 47-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Since then the ice has already begun to melt again."

WaPo goes on:

"The record comes age a grim time for ice in all corners of the globe. In Antarctica, which has historically been more isolated from the effects of human-causing warming, sea ice shrank this month to the second lowest extent on record.  Research published in the journal Nature in February found that Earth's glaciers are dwindling at an accelerating rate,"

Back up there in the Arctic, this year's maximum ice extent was 31,000 square miles smaller than the previous record. That 31,000 square miles is about the same size as South Carolina. 

The Arctic is warming much faster than the rest of the globe. This winter was a classic example. Some areas of the far north were as much as 22 degrees Fahrenheit above average, which helps explain why Arctic ice didn't freeze as it should have

When there's less sea ice, the Arctic can warm even faster. More ice means when the sun shines on those gleaming white surfaces, bouncing the sun's heat back up into space.

When there's blue open water instead of ice up there in the Arctic, the sun's warmth is absorbed by that water Or as WaPo explains:

"With so little sea ice in the Arctic this year, more sunlight will be able to reach the open ocean, which absorbs more than 90 percent of the radiation that hits it. This will further warm the region, accelerating ice melt and exposing even more water to the light."

That's known as a feedback loop. Arctic ice melts because of climate change. That allows more heat to come in, melting even more ice and accelerating climate change even more. 

As I always like to say, what goes on the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic.  

Sure, the lack of ice makes the Arctic melt even faster, but the warming effect does to an extent spread all over the world. It would just make our recent spate of record and near record hot years just keep going and going, like some torrid, evil Energizer Bunny.  

A lack of ice in the Arctic won't in itself make sea levels rise. As you've probably heard me say before. If the ice cubes in your glass of gin and tonic melt, it won't make the glass overflow. But the Arctic heat that might last through the summer can bleed on over to the Greenland ice cap, which is above sea level. The more that ice cap melts, the higher sea levels go. 

Global Sea Ice Hit Record Low In February, Aided By Arctic's Year Without A Winter

The trend line in Arctic sea ice extent in February.
It hit a record low this year. The trend line has
been sharply downward

 The steady drumbeat of climate change news and details keeps coming along, and it just doesn't stop.

The latest is a new low in the extent of sea ice around the world. 

Per the Washington Post:

"Europe's Copernicus Climate Change Service reported that the daily global sea ice extent, which combines the amount of sea ice present in the Arctic and Antarctic, hit a new low in early February and remained below the record from 2023 for the rest of the month."

The Arctic was largely to blame for February's poor ice performance. WaPo continues:

"In particular, researchers said, the Arctic has continued to experience steadily less ice over time. The region has warmed at several times the global average, and while sea ice in the Arctic usually reaches its annual peak in March, it recorded its lowest ever monthly extent for February last month."

Much of the Arctic experienced their version of a year without a winter this year. Yes, it was frickin' cold up there, with temperatures usually far, far below zero.  

But not as far below zero as usual, and some weird winter heat waves extended well north into the Arctic this winter.  February temperatures were as much as 20 degrees above normal, so the usual winter manufacturing of sea ice up there faltered. 

MIDWINTER ARCTIC THAW?

The weirdest moment came on February 2, when areas very close to the North Pole were an incredible 68 degrees warmer than normal. Which meant the actual temperature was very close to the freezing mark of 32 degrees. A buoy just south of the North Pole registered a temperature of 33 degrees that day. 

You're supposed to be rapidly forming and thickening ice near the North Pole in early February, not melting it. Ice is supposed to grow steadily in the Arctic during February. Instead, it stalled twice, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

The Groundhog Day hot spell was caused by a strong storm near Iceland that pulled very warm air toward the North Pole. The air was made extra hot by record warm sea temperatures in the northeast Atlantic Ocean. Climate change helped turn a rare winter Arctic hot spell into something extraordinary 

Scientists aren't sure if something like this has happened before, but an event in February, 2018 at least came very close.  

Meanwhile, at the end of the Antarctic summer, the extent of ice down there was close to its annual minimum for the year as February closed.  It looks like this year's minimum ice extent in Antarctica will come in at a tie for second lowest, with the years 2022 and 2024. Final figures on that are due soon.   

WHY THIS IS BAD

Here's why a lack of sea ice in the Arctic is bad. The white ice reflects the sun's heat back to outer space. Blue open ocean water absorbs it. If not much ice forms in the darkness of an Arctic winter, then there's lots of extra blue Arctic ocean water to absorb sunlight in the spring and summer. This further warms the Arctic, and in turn the rest of the world. 

It's a classic feedback loop. 

The loss of Arctic ice won't raise sea levels. I mean, when the ice cubes in your gin and tonic melts, your glass doesn't overflow. Same principal here.

However, the fact that the lack of ice in the Arctic is helping accelerate global warming, that would in turn accelerate melting off of glaciers on land. Which of course would increase the worldwide sea level. 

Final figures aren't in yet, but early indications are February globally had the slightest cooldown compared to most months in recent years. But it's no reason to cheer. 

February might end up as the world's third warmest on record, instead of the hottest or second hottest we've kept seeing over the past couple of years.

But a February that comes in at #3 on the top ten hottest list during a La Nina, which is supposed to cool the world a little bit, is not encouraging at all.

I'll have more details on our global February once more data becomes available.  

Saturday Evening Vermont/New England Snow Forecast Update

The updated snowstorm forecast for Sunday night. 
There's still a big bust potential with this forecast, 
and we could end up with much less or much
more than indicated here. 

Very much like this morning, there's still some questions as to how much snow will fall in Vermont and elsewhere in New England with a fast-moving nor'easter Sunday night, but the forecasts are coming into better focus. 

Before we get into that, we should recap the wind we saw in Vermont today, especially in the Champlain Valley. As of 5 p.m. that wind was dying down, after some pretty hefty gusts earlier. 

Top wind speeds reported include 56 mph at Colchester Reef, 50 mph at the Milton Sandbar and 49 mph at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 

Luckily there were very few power outages to report as the winds did not appear quite strong enough to cause damage.

We're still expecting that cold front tonight. It's already created scattered rain and snow showers this afternoon and evening. Southwest winds aloft have prevented the Champlain Valley from really getting anything.

Temperatures will crash later tonight as the cold front comes through and the Arctic air rushes in.

THE STORM

Forecasts for this nor'easter that will race past us Sunday night have settled on a path that would take it probably just offshore of Cape Cod and Nantucket. 

That puts central New England in the golden zone for snow. A stripe of winter storm warnings for heavy snow extends from West Virginia, on through western Maryland, eastern Pennsylvania, southern New York, Connecticut and Massachusetts

The winter storm watch in Bennington and Windham counties in far southern Vermont has been upgraded to a winter storm warning. Most places under the warnings can expect six to nine inches of snow. 

A winter weather advisory goes north into Rutland, Windsor and Orange counties, where three to seven inches of snow are anticipated.

Totals are still expected to taper off pretty quickly as you head northwest. It looks like the Champlain Valley might only see an inch or two of snow.

Maybe. 

The above forecast is as it stood as of Saturday evening. There's still a ton of wiggle room in this prediction. A slight shift in the storm's path will upend this forecast. That's because there will be a sharp cutoff on the northwestward edge of the storm between heavy snow and basically flurries. 

The storm could still nudge itself a little further northwestward than expected. If that happens, most of Vermont could really get a decent dump. On the other hand, a slight shift further southeastward than expected might leave most of the Green Mountain State without much snow at all.

Whatever happens, it will be pretty cold while it's snowing. Temperatures will fall into the single numbers or at best, lower teens. That'll leave us with really fluffy snow, if it snows where you are. 

This will be a brief snowfall because the storm will be racing by so quickly. It'll start in southern Vermont late Sunday afternoon and the evening elsewhere. It's scheduled to end before dawn Monday. 

Plan on difficult travel Sunday night, especially the further south and east you go. The snowplows will clear most of the snow off the road pretty quickly, but it'll be too cold for salt to work. Which means icy roads will linger on roads and highways well into the Monday morning commute.

One part of the forecast that has stayed firm is the anticipated frigid weather. We'll have highs in the single numbers to low teens Monday through Wednesday, with below zero readings at night. Breezes will introduce a bitter wind chill to this mess. 

Vermont Week Ahead: Yet More "Flurried To Death" Weather, With Some Twists

 Vermont - at least the northern half - has seemingly constantly snowed this month. 

This National Weather  Service snow prediction map
looks very much like the ones you saw last week.
This new prediction tells us the northern Green
Mountains will get a bunch of additional snow,
while southeastern Vermont misses out again. 

Every day, some snow fell somewhere in the Green Mountain State. Most of the time, not much snow falls on any one day, with the exception of some good dumps in the northern mountains here and there. 

Even in the Champlain Valley, measurable snow has fallen in Burlington on seven of the first 11 days of the month. 

It hasn't been much, as snowfall for the month so far is only a couple inches above average. Snowfall for the entire winter so far is still a good six inches on the light side in Burlington. 

Near the summit of Mount Mansfield, the snow depth has reached 46 inches, which is a little more than the 38 inches that is average for this date at the snow stake. In mid to low elevations, snow depth is up to 17 inches in towns like Westfield and Greensboro. 

In what has been mostly snow-free low elevations in southern Vermont, there's finally a dusting to an inch on the ground. 

MORE SNOW

This flurried to death regime in Vermont will continue all week. There are a few twists and turns to this however, that will make things at times just slightly different than last week. 

Today: An exception to the daily snow rule. Flurries will be hard to come by and at least some sunshine will brighten our Sunday. It'll be a bit warmer than it has been too, with highs well into the 20s, maybe near 30 in the warm spots on southern valleys. That's about normal for this time of year.

Monday/Monday Night: The snow will be back. At least for some of us.  Ahead of a cold front of sorts, it will be fairly mild with many of us reaching the low 30s. But the air will be cooling aloft, which sets us up for some sort of convective snow showers. 

It'll be similar to those hit and miss showers and thunderstorms we get in the summer. Instead of thundershowers, we'll have scattered snow showers. A few, especially later Monday and Monday night, could turn into snow squalls. 

Only some of us will get those. The squalls might lay down a quick one to three inches where they hit, and also reduce visibility and quickly mess with road conditions. 

Forecast precipitation map for Tuesday into 
Wednesday for the United States. You usually
see lots of blues and purples, indicated heavy
rain or snow. But the nation will be remarkably
dry this week, with the only real precipitation
is snow around the Great Lakes and n
in northern New England. 

Tuesday-Wednesday: We'll be back to the same regime we had last week. Persistent snow showers will cover northern Vermont. 

Once again, valleys will only see a couple, maybe a few inches of snow. The  northern Green Mountains will once again see several inches to locally as much as a foot of snow midweek. 

Southeastern Vermont, particularly the lower Connecticut River Valley, will miss out again 

Vermont, and areas around the Great Lakes where there will be torrential lake effect snows, will be the "wettest"  part of the nation midweek.

 Here in Vermont, if you melt down the snow we're forecast to receive, southern Vermont would get less than a tenth of an inch of liquid equivalent, while some northern areas could see more than a quarter inch of "rain equivalent."

Usually this time of year, storms, especially on the West Coast and in the South, often produce heavy precipitation.

There is strangely nothing going on midweek. The whole nation will be dry, which is odd to see in January, But that will change at the end of the week. 

Then things change radically.

Late Week/Next Weekend

The end of the week and next weekend is looking the most interesting, for us here in Vermont and for most of the United States as a whole.

In about six or seven days from now,   it's beginning to look like a really, really nasty Arctic outbreak is going to plunge south from near the North Pole and seriously chill the eastern half of the U.S. 

It's a little early to know how intense this cold snap will be, but it's looking like one of the more intense ones in recent years. 

At first, the bitter air will attack from Canada via the northern Plains, which would turn the wind flow southerly up the East Coast.

That means the snow ahead of the next cold front coming through here could mix with or change to rain for a time around here in Vermont. Too soon to tell for sure, but it's possible. Which would be a bit of a bummer, but you have to expect that from time to time. 

It then looks like that frigid air will spill into northern New England.  Again, too soon to tell, but it's possible we could be looking at well below zero temperatures about seven to 10 days from now.

It's turning into a longer winter than we've seen in recent years 

 

Arctic Now Becoming Emitter Of Carbon Dioxide, That Dreaded Greenhouse Gas

In this photo from U.S. Bureau of Land Management,
permafrost, which has been increasingly thawing in
the Arctic, erodes into the Beaufort Sea.

Once upon a time, the Arctic used to be the place where carbon dioxide went to die.  

At least it seemed that way. It would get stored in the permafrost, seemingly locked in that icy prison never to bother us in the atmosphere again. never to bother us in the atmosphere again. 

Back in the day, that didn't matter much anyway.  There wasn't so much carbon dioxide in the air, so no real climate change. At least that's the way it was a century or more ago.

Now, just when we don't need more greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the Arctic is starting to belch it out, according to new information from NOAA. 

 The world has warmed up enough through climate change to alter the ecosystems of the Arctic, and that is prompting that stored carbon in the permafrost to come out of hiding to join the world's hot and getting hotter party. 

The news comes the 2024 Arctic Report Card, researched and written by 97 scientists from 11 countries.

NOAA says

"After storing carbon dioxide in frozen soil for millennia, the Arctic tundra is being transformed by frequent wildfires into an overall source of carbon to the atmosphere, which is already absorbing record levels of heat-trapping fossil fuel pollution."

Wildfires in the areas of North America with permafrost have increased in the past couple decades. The report says that since 2003, emissions from polar wildfires averaged 207 million tons of carbon each year. That's more than the annual carbon emissions from nations like Argentina and Austria. 

Arctic wildfires are only a relatively small piece of the problem.  The permafrost is melting more and more, releasing carbon into the air instead of storing it. That's why, for the first time, the Arctic is making the climate change problem worse, not better.

I found a good explanation of this at NPR:

"Twila Moon, lead editor of the Arctic Report Card and  scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, likened permafrost to chicken in the freezer: As long as it stays frozen, microbes stay away.

'Once you have that chicken out of your freezer, it's thawing and all those microbes are getting to work, breaking down the chicken, making it rot,' she said. 'The permafrost is really doing the same thing.'"

There was the tiniest glimmer of good news from Greenland, but it was definitely nothing to get the Champagne and confetti out to party. 

The Greenland Ice sheet mass loss was the lowest since 2013, mostly because it snowed more than usual up there. Still, the ice shoot lost somewhere in the broad range of 22 and 77 billion tons of ice last year. 

That was enough to raise the global sea levels by 0.15 millimeters. Which is too small for anybody to notice. But if you add in all the other sources of sea level rise, and compound them year after year, it starts to make a big difference. 

This report demonstrates that the Arctic has changed much in just a few decades. There's no way it's going to stay as it is  now, either. It's going to get worse.

The Arctic is the fastest warming region of the world.  There's no signs, and no reasons for that warming to slow down as fossil fuel emissions keep cranking.  Since the Arctic is also adding those emissions, if anything, the pace at which the Arctic deteriorates will also increase.  

Persistent July Heat Broke Impressive Records In Several U.S. Cities

Clouds billow up on July 17, taking advantage of another
in a string of steamy very warm days in Vermont this summer.
Many cities on the west and east coasts had their hottest
July on record, and those who didn't came close. 

 We in Vermont weren't the only ones who endured what seemed like never ending summer heat during July. 

Plenty of other cities, mostly in the West, with some in the East were even more impressive. 

Death Valley, California had the hottest month ever observed at any place on Earth in July. The average temperatures, as measured at Furnace Creek there, was 108.5 degrees during July. That breaks the old record of 108.1 set in 2018.

The list of cities reporting their hottest July include Sacramento, Bakersfield and several other California cities, Las Vegas, Portland, Salem, Redmond and Eugene, Oregon; Spokane, Washington, St. George, Utah, Albany, New York, Hartford, Connecticut, Concord, New Hampshire and Orlando and Fort Lauderdale, Florida. 

I'm sure I'm missing many other cities that had a record hot July, but you get the idea.

Here in Vermont, Burlington "only" managed to see its third hottest July on record this year. 

While the East and West coasts were hot, the middle of the United States was near normal, or even a little cooler than average in spots. 

Within a few days, we should see July data that assesses the United States as a whole. At mid-month or so, we'll know how July fared across the globe. Early indications are July ended a 13-month long stretch of consecutive record warm global months. Even so, July for the world as a whole will surly come in much warmer than the 20th century average 

We do know in some areas, including some weird spots, the extreme heat continued into August. For example, how about a nice tropical beach vacation on the Arctic Ocean shores in far northwestern Canada and northern Alaska? 

Deadhorse, Alaska, right on the Arctic Ocean shore in not normally a tropical paradise, but it reached 89 degrees there on August 6.  That is likely the hottest it's been anywhere in the world north of 70 degrees latitude. 

In the neighboring Northwest Territories of Canada in the far north, all time record highs were set a Little Chicago, 96.6 degree; Fort McPherson, 94.8 degree, Inuvik, 94.6 degrees and Trail Valley, 33.6 degrees. 

Although much of the eastern United States has cooled off somewhat from the persistent heat of July, it's still quite warm in much of Canada as a strong ridge of high pressure in the middle of that nation holds firm.

Summers are getting longer in the northern hemisphere with climate change. Which of course means this summer is definitely not over yet.  

Hot Times In The Arctic: Annual Report Card Shows Big Changes Affecting Entire World

The Arctic got at best a D- in NOAA's annual Arctic report
card that takes a look at how climate change is affecting
the top of the world. Remember, what goes on in the
Arctic does not stay in the Arctic .

 Most of the world has had a really hot year in this age of climate change. 

Relatively speaking, the Arctic was arguably the most out of whack, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's annual Arctic Report Card, which was released Tuesday. 

The main takeaway from this year's edition: The Arctic is warming almost four times faster than the world as a whole, and had their hottest summer since at least 1900,

According to NPR:

"'The Arctic is now more relevant to us that it has ever been before,' said NOAA administrator Rick Spinrad. 'In many cases, what we're seeing is - by a few years - the kinds of impacts that we're going to see elsewhere in the country.'

Climate change in the Arctic doesn't just offer a view of the future. It also directly influences worldwide changes across ecosystems, from sea-level rise, to new weather patterns to altered wildlife migrations. 

As Spinrad put it,' what happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic."

The report has plenty of examples of how warming in the Arctic is screwing with people who live near the upper reaches of the Earth, and everybody elsewhere. 

The Arctic had its hottest summer on record and its sixth warmest year on record. Despite the summer heat, the Arctic "only" had its sixth lowest sea ice extent on record.  That was because some pockets of the Arctic were relatively cool, like the East Siberian Sea and areas of ice near Alaska. That slowed the ice melt in the summer a little. 

Greenland lost 150 billion tons of ice. That's bad because Greenland is the second biggest source of global sea level rise. One mitigating factor became apparent this year. A warmer Arctic means a wetter Arctic. At least most of the time. That means it snowed more than usual in Greenland this year. The extra snow ensured that the loss of Greenland ice was less than the recent average. 

It's worth noting that the peak high point of Greenland's ice sheet, 10,000 feet above sea level, got above freezing this summer for only the fifth time on record. 

Worldwide commerce is being affected by a warming Arctic, or better or worse. As the Washington Post tells us:

"The Northwest Passage, which allows ships to pass between the Atlantic and Pacific archipelago, was relatively ice free by late August....The Northwest Passage has long been an object of fascination as a means to dramatically reduce shipping distances and costs, and especially since 2007, when dramatic melting first opened it up."

Shipping companies are really taking notice of this. Early in my lifetime, it was quite a laughable idea that the Northwest Passage would be a viable shipping route. How times change with climate change. 

Wildfires, of all things, are becoming increasingly common in the Arctic.  As I've already reported, most of Canada was seemingly on fire during 2023. That includes the far north of that nation.

Sure, as noted, the Arctic is by and large getting wetter, but the droughts in between the rains are also getting worse. 

Per the Washington Post: 

"More than 90 percent of the 11 million acres that burned across Canada through the end of October was in the Northwest Territories, according to the report. Data from the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service released Tuesday showed that Canada accounted for 23 percent of global wildfire carbon emissions this year."

Climate change is making Arctic salmon populations weird. That's important because that's the livelihood of many people in the Arctic. 

Says NPR: 

It'll be interesting, and probably alarming to see what happens in the next 12 months up in the Arctic. El Nino is helping to supercharge climate change, at least temporarily. 

Though I'm sure there will be record warmth up there this winter, it won't matter too much quite yet because it will still be too cold for appreciable warming.

But a warm winter would make less ice for than normal, setting the stage for even lower sea ice extent next summer. Greenland remains a wildcard. I wonder if huge heat waves - at least by their standards - will cause even greater ice loss than in recent years. 

Remember the quote cited above: What goes on the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic. It's part of the reason we in Vermont choked on wildfire smoke last summer. Gawd knows what a hot Arctic will bring us next year. 

Friday Morning Arctic Blast Update: UGH!

Since it's so bitterly cold out, I'll try to warm you up a little
with a photo of a beautiful warm, sunny Vermont summer
 day a couple years ago. 

 Well, it's here. The long awaited Arctic blast, polar vortex, whatever you want to call it. 

Temperatures were crashing early this morning as expected. For instance, Burlington dropped from 24 degrees at midnight to 2 above by 6 a.m. 

Temperatures will continue down and reach below zero soon, if they haven't already, and will stay below zero all day. Wind chills are ramping up, and the expected 30 to 45 below wind chill values will hit as the day wears on. 

MORNING DRIVE TIME

There's some slick areas on the roads this morning from those brief but heavy snow squalls overnight. Some of the squalls were intense enough to create some thundersnow up in Orleans County. 

 Road salt doesn't work great in low temperatures, so any ice lingering on the roads won't easily go anywhere.  Bridges and overpasses, especially over rivers will be especially dangerous. Steam rising from the water often forms black ice on the bridge.

That's one the reasons we see so many winter crashes on the Interstate 89 bridges over the Winooski River between Winooski and Burlington.

From about Burlington south into Addison County, the frigid winds blowing across the mostly unfrozen Lake Champlain  today will create light lake effect snow.  

Areas exposed to those strong northwest winds will also suffer from blowing snow that can briefly reduce visibility and leave an area of snow on the roads. You're driving along and the roads seem OK, then you hit that snow in skid out. 

Further north, this problem is even worse. There's a blizzard warning up for far northern Maine today. There won't be much new snow up there, either, but strong winds and low temperatures will create a ground blizzard.

A ground blizzard, common in the northern Plains but less so here, is when there's little or no snow falling out of the sky, but blowing snow is so thick that visibility is reduced on the roads to near zero.

TOO COLD TO DO ANYTHING

Otherwise, the bitter cold air is dry, so most places won't see any additional snow. 

If you had big plans today or tomorrow, check to see if they're still on.  They probably aren'.t Besides, today and tonight especially will be a perfect time to stay indoors, eating stew and binge watching Netflix or Hulu or something. 

Another photo attempt to warm you up today. Photo is
at the Burlington, Vermont waterfront during a July, 
2018 heat wave. I remember it was 91 degrees 
when I snapped this photo. I sincerely doubt it's
this nice along the Burlington lake front today.

Many schools in Vermont are closed today. I know, I know. I went to school, too, in weather this bad when I was a kid. But the fact that we've had such warm winters is a bit of a shock. People aren't use to this.

Jay Peak announced Friday that it would shut down its ski lifts today and probably run them on a limited basis on Saturday. "While this may sadden the hardest of our corps, it's in the interest of both our team and guests that we do so," the resort said in a statement issued Thursday.

I'm sure other ski resorts are closing or limiting lifts today, too. 

That gets me to something I brought up before that needs to be repeated: Will you hard core adventurers just STOP.  Don't climb Mount Washington, just for this one 48 hour period.  Don't go for a jog in just shorts and a t-shirt. You know who you are. I've seen you. 

You're not impressing anyone, and if your hiking and skiing the back woods in this ridiculousness, you put rescuers in danger, too. Not just yourself. Or do you care?

Phew! I really had to get that out of my system. 

The annual Penguin Plunge into Lake Champlain in Burlington to benefit Special Olympics is also canceled, and somehow turned into a remote event. The real deal had been scheduled for Saturday, but meteorologists, the City of Burlington and organizers deemed the event too dangerous give the expected wind chill.  

Organizers are telling would-be plungers to instead, after the cold eases, to make snow angels in bathing suits, or have snowball fights in shorts and t-shirts, or anything like that between now and February 20.  

TONIGHT

Snuggle in for a frigid night. The forecast hasn't really changed in days as to how cold it will get overnight and early Saturday morning.

The banana belt towns near Lake Champlain should bottom out in the mid to upper teens below zero, with continued wind chills in the 35 to 45 below range. Most other places in northern and central Vermont should get into the low to mid 20s below zero with wind chills in the 40s below. The coldest hollows should flirt with 30 below - actual temperature.

This terrible weather is still looking like an incredibly quick hitter. Saturday will still be frigid, but not as cold or windy as today.  Most places should actually get to a few degrees above zero by mid to late afternoon.

Overnight Saturday, it will actually warm up, and be pretty decent by Sunday morning, with temperatures at dawn probably in the teens for most of us.  Those readings will go into the upper 20s to mid 30s by late afternoon Sunday. That's actually a wee bit warmer than average. 

And, every day during the upcoming week will be warmer than average for this time of year. 5 

Thursday Morning Update: Arctic Blast Will Be Even Quicker In, Quicker Out

Snow slid halfway off my roof, and then froze like this.
Looks like this sculpture will stay put until renewed
thawing sets in next week, after our Arctic blast.

Hope you're ready to hibernate for just a couple days. 

That highly advertised Arctic blast, or visit from the Polar Vortex is on our doorstep, ready to swoop in tonight in dramatic fashion. 

The Arctic cold front will blast through Vermont in the first half of tonight, accompanied by brief, but blinding snow squalls, especially in northern parts of the state.

The cold front will come through the Champlain Valley roughly around 9 p.m., give or take. It should exit the southeastern corner of the state around midnight. 

If you're out later tonight, be careful. Some of these snow squalls will mean business with strong winds and low visibility. They'll only last 15 minutes or so in any given location, but they're not to be messes with on the roads.

From there, temperatures will plunge. The frigid air is coming in a little faster than first forecast, so most of us should be well below zero by dawn.  Do note the wind chill warning starts at 1 a.m. Friday and goes to 1 p.m. Saturday. Those wind chills are still expected to be in the 30 to 45 below range. 

The roads tomorrow morning won't be great, either. Those snow squalls will only leave an inch or so of new snow, but it will get so cold so fast that I doubt road salt will work effectively.

Friday, as I noted yesterday, will be miserable. All but the low elevations of southern Vermont will stay below zero all day. North winds will gust to 30 mph. It won't be the day to spend any time outdoors. I'd cancel the ski trip, the hike, or even a run of a few blocks. It won't be worth it. 

Some forecasters have backed off a tiny bit on expected low temperatures Friday night and early Saturday morning. But it will still be among the coldest, or the coldest night in a few years. For now, the National Weather Service office in South Burlington is going with mid-teens below zero in the Champlain Valley to mid 20s below in the Northeast Kingdom.

Saturday will be bright but still bitterly cold. However, the tide will be starting to turn against the chill during the day as the core of the coldest air rapidly gets out of here. Winds will diminish, and most of us will get into the single digits above zero,

I still think temperatures will briefly crash just after sunset Saturday, especially east of the Green Mountains. But by then, south winds will already be starting to stir in the Champlain Valley. Most of us will stay  in the single digits below zero, at least for the first part of Saturday night. 

As the south winds increase, temperatures will actually go up overnight, especially in the Champlain Valley. By Sunday afternoon, the cold snap will be over. Everybody will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s for highs. 

The Arctic blast will be just 48 to 60 hours of misery in what appears to be shaping up to be a warm winter. Temperatures are forecast to be generally above normal into mid-February from Sunday afternoon onward. 

Quick Vermont Arctic Blast Tuesday Evening Update

Finally some clear skies today gives us a decent visible
satellite view of Lake Champlain, dark blue color
indicating is is mostly ice free. Will be interesting to 
see how much of it ices over in next few days. 
You can also see New Hampshire's Lake Winnipesaukee
and Maine's Sebago Lake also mostly ice-free

 Forecasts haven't changed too much for the expected blast of Arctic air later this week. 

This will only be a quick update, with more details coming tomorrow morning. 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington, to nobody's surprise,  has issued a wind chill watch for late Thursday night through Saturday. Wind chills are still expected to go to between 30 and 45 below zero Friday and Saturday. 

This will almost definitely get upgraded to a wind chill warning as we get closer to the event. 

Before we get there, you'll need to really bundle up tonight and early tomorrow. We've got some cold air, that, in any other winter, would be totally routine. But in many places around Vermont, this will be the coldest night of the year so far. 

Not only is the air chilly today, it is dry. Which explains the brilliant, beautiful sunshine we've seen this afternoon after a full month or more of mostly gloomy, foggy overcast.  Enjoy it. This is the first day this year that the sun sets at 5 p.m. With the clear skies, it will be lighter out there later than you're used to. You should see some twilight when we get close to 6 p.m. 

With clear skies, and light winds, the expected low temperature tonight in Burlington is 3 above zero. Until now, the coldest night this winter was 8 above. Away from Lake Champlain, many areas will be a few degrees below zero overnight. 

I've never seen this much of Lake Champlain ice-free this late into the season. Even parts of St. Albans Bay has no ice on it, which is bizarre, really, for January 31. It will be interesting to see how much of the lake will freeze over between now and Sunday. I know it won't completely freeze over, but the ice will certainly cover more territory within a few days. 

There's lots of weird nuances to bring up regarding this odd, brief Arctic outbreak. Details coming tomorrow morning! 

The First Truly Hard Core Winter Week Of The Season In Vermont Is Here

Just one of many forecast maps that show the Polar Vortex
right near us in southern Quebec at the end of the week.
This will create a brief, but intense Arctic blast in Vermont 

If you have been waiting for a true Vermont winter, this will be your week. 

Colder weather started last night. It will stay cold,  then colder, then ridiculous as the week wears on. By the time Friday and Saturday come along wind chills will be solidly in the 30s and 40s below. Temperatures might or might not get above zero Friday and Saturday afternoons. 

Friday night and Saturday morning, it will be in the teens below in the "banana belt" towns right near Lake Champlain and in some far southern Vermont towns. For pretty much everybody else, it will be in the 20s below. Actual temperature, not wind chill.

It might seem late to dig out your winter gear, but now's the time to do it.

Before we get there, the first half of week won't be too bad, at least not by Vermont standards. But the warm weather is gone. Though this will be the longest period we've had below freezing all winter. It dipped below 32 degrees last evening and will stay there for awhile. 

Wind chills this morning, actually are in the single numbers, so kind of cold. Roads might be icy in spots this morning, especially north, where a little wet snow fell, then froze yesterday. Up here in St. Albans, we collected 1.4 inches of slush, which then turned mainly to an icy snow cover once temperatures dropped.

More little disturbances in the atmosphere should touch off more light snow today and tonight. Most places will only see an inch or so of new snow, but the ski areas of northern Vermont are probably in for a good three or four inches. 

Today's little packet of snow will reinforce the gathering cold, so it will only make it into the upper teens for highs on Tuesday. That will make it the chilliest day since December 24 in Vermont. 

We'll get a false sense of security on Wednesday and Thursday as temperatures actually moderate to normal for this time of year - which means 20s for highs. Really not bad! 

Then the hammer hits.

ARCTIC BLAST

The polar vortex, that whirl of intensely cold Arctic air that pretty much always spins somewhere in the high latitudes in the winter, has spent pretty much this entire winter a safe distance from us here in Vermont. It's been way, way north and pretty compact, so that opened the door for mild Pacific air to make cross country trips to New England. 

Now, the polar vortex is stretched, and about to take a quick plunge, ending up way south, into southeastern Quebec by Friday. 

That is more than close enough to give us a taste of true Arctic  air. 

A cold front will blast through Thursday night with some good snow showers, and temperatures will take the plunge.

It will be a horrible Friday with actual temperatures holding in the low single numbers or even falling. Strong north winds will blast in, leading to those intense wind chills. 

Though the wind will relax somewhat Friday night, the temperatures will plunge to the minus 20s, as mentioned. 

 A cold snap of this intensity is also in one respect worse than other, similar ones we've had in the past. During most winters, we've usually gotten used to a few subzero mornings, so 20 below wouldn't seem like that much of a stretch. 

This year, it IS a stretch. The National Weather Service in South Burlington is already sounding the alarm about the fact that this will come as a shock, and we might be unprepared. In their forecast discussion this morning, the NWS wrote, "Extra caution will likely be needed to combat complacency built up through what has been an abnormally warm winter thus far."

One thing to worry about is cars and trucks haven't been put through the wringer yet this winter with intensely cold air. They break down easily in subzero temperatures. 

I expect to see a lot of cars disabled on the roads Friday through Saturday morning. Since tow truck operators might be busy, it could take awhile to get rescued if your car dies. 

This is a great time to stock your vehicle with extra blankets, clothes, high energy snacks and such. 

Also, make sure your gas tank is filled right before the cold hits. 

Check your home fuel supply now and get ahold of your dealer today if it's getting low. They'll have a lot of emergency calls during the cold snap, and might not get to you very fast if you run out. 

A frigid house with frozen water pipes is a terrible place to be. 

While you're at it, check on your elderly neighbors especially to see if they're stocked up and ready for this.  It probably isn't a bad idea to hit the grocery store between now and Thursday afternoon to stock up on supplies. Maybe stuff to make a hearty stew to have during the cold snap.

SHORT LIVED

In an earlier post, I mentioned this winter could be like 2007. That one started warm, then turned frigid for March and April. At this point, though, this winter is looking more like 2016.  It was a warm winter throughout, except for one, big Arctic blast in mid-February.

The Arctic cold that's coming Friday and Saturday is not going to stick around. The polar vortex will get swept east and north, kind of fall apart a bit, and start to reorganize well to the north again. 

By Sunday afternoon, we'll pop back up in the balmy 25-30 degree territory as it looks now. Long range forecasts call for normal or even above normal temperatures starting Sunday and going into mid-February. 

 

The Arctic:: Humid, Rainy, Stormy, Smoky And A Typhoon?

A storm surge pushes into Nome, Alaska earlier this year
as a former typhoon raked much of the state. The Arctic is
turning wetter, stormier, more fiery and less icy due to
climate change. 

When you think of the Arctic, torrential rains, smoky skies, fires, storm surges, humid weather and typhoons don't really come to mind. 

As the latest annual report on the Arctic tells us, though, those weather patterns might not dominate the top of the world just yet, they are increasingly become factors in a rapidly warming environment.  

NOAA releases an Arctic report card every year. The latest publication, released last month,  is the 17th annual summary of a vastly changing Arctic.

Some of the top takeaways from the latest report as quoted from the document: 

"Arctic annual air temperatures from October 2021 to September 2022 were the sixth warmest dating back to 1900, continuing a decade-long trend in which Arctic air temperatures have warmed faster than the global average. The Arctic's seven warmest years since 1900 have been in the last seven years."

My take: Being the sixth warmest and not #1 is no big accomplishment. Earth has been in a La Nina pattern for three years now. That tends to cool the world a little bit. Sixth warmest isn't a great sign if we've been in a La Nina for so long. 

"Arctic sea ice extent (coverage) was higher than many recent years, but much lower than the long-term average. Multiyear ice extent, sea ice thickness and volume rebounded after a near record low in 2021 but was below conditions in the 1980s and 1990s, with older ice extremely rare."

My take: I'm glad to hear Arctic sea ice rebounded somewhat. I bet that won't be a long term trend, even if the coming year has good ice, compared to recent years. You're going to get periods when ice rebounds, then melts away again. You want to see many years of increasing sea ice to breathe any kind of sigh of relief. A year or two tells you nothing. 

"The 2021-2022 Arctic snow season saw a combination of above average snow accumulation but early snowmelt, consistent with long term trends of shortening snow seasons in several areas. 

Wetter than normal conditions predominated over much of the Arctic from October 2021 to September 2022. Precipitation has increased significantly since the 1950s across all seasons and datasets. Heavy precipitation events are more common in the North Atlantic subarctic, while much of the central Arctic shows increases in consecutive wet days and decreases in consecutive dry days." 

My take: No surprise there. A warmer world is in general a wetter world. Warmer air can hold more moisture. Given the right conditions, it can rain and snow a lot. The Arctic is still really dry compared to places, like, well, here in Vermont, but it is getting a lot wetter pretty fast on and near the roof of the world.

"The Greenland ice sheet lost ice in 2022, the 25th consecutive year of ice loss. In September, 2022, the Greenland ice sheet had unprecedented late season warming, creating surface melt conditions over 36 percent of the ice sheet on September 3, including the Greenland ice sheet's summit at 10,500 feet. This followed a July 18 large surface melt observed across 42 percent of the Greenland ice sheet surface."

My take: I'll be really surprised if there ever is another season in which the Greenland ice sheet actually expands over the course of a year. Decades ago, this happened pretty frequently. Not every year, but often enough. 

On some years the net loss of Greenland ice won't be that much, relatively speaking. But I think we're going to see more years like 2012 which was a super melt year that still has scientists gasping.

By the way, the remnants of Hurricane Fiona, which trashed southeastern Canada in late September, moved on toward Greenland, causing a smaller, but still unprecedented late season melt. 

The unseasonable melts are "challenging how researchers define the Greenland summer melt season," according to the report. 

The earlier than usual snow melt, and this summer's hot dry conditions in interior Alaska contributed to major wildfires. By July, 2 million acres in Alaska had burned. Visibility at the Fairbanks airport was reduced on several days by smoke. 

There's some geopolitical aspects to the melting Arctic as well. Shipping is increasing up there, which adds political, environmental and society effects to those living in the Arctic, and for governments competing for commerce on top of the world.  

The annual Arctic report has been generally been getting more comprehensive and detailed as the years go by. This year's edition was compiled by 147 experts from 11 nations. 

This year's model pays more attention to the indigenous population near the top of the world. Says NOAA:

"The 15th chapter of the report card, authored by a team that includes Native Alaskan scientists, describes how warming air temperatures, shrinking sea ice, shorter periods of snow cover, increased wildfire, rising levels of precipitation and changes in animal migration patterns and their abundance profoundly affect the safety, food security health, economic wellbeing and cultural traditions of indigenous people."

This chapter on how the changing Arctic is affecting indigenous people is pretty fascinating, and disturbing. 

As the Washington Post reports:

"The sea ice retreat forces hunters to travel as far as 100 miles from their homes to find walruses during the spring harvest. The thinning of sea ice has also made seal hunting dangerous in some communities."

It takes longer for indigenous people to hunt, given the more challenging conditions. With a lack of sea ice, wave heights are higher, which makes hunting on the water more dangerous. People near the Bering and Chukchi seas are also seeing more die-offs of birds like ducks and puffins because of starvation and a lack of sea ice.

Although there are naturally yearly ups and downs in the Arctic, I don't see any evidence suggesting that climate change will slow its assault on the top of the world. In fact, few people would be surprised if it all accelerates. 

Just remember: What goes on in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic.

 

Northern Tip Of Alaska Just Had What Is For Them Extreme December Heat

Temperature departure map from Monday shows extreme
warmth, relative to average, over almost all of the state.

 In the winter, it's dark and extremely cold around Utqiagvik, formerly Barrow on the northern tip of Alaska. 

On Monday however, the high temperature at Utqiagvik reached 40 degrees.  

That doesn't sound too warm, but that 40 degree reading was way, way beyond what anybody had ever seen in that frigid northern settlement.

That 40 degrees broke the all-time record high for the month of December by a whopping six degrees. Not only that, it was the warmest it has ever been in Utqiagvik on any date between October 20 and April 22. 

A reading of 40 degrees in Utqiagvik is the normal high temperature for the middle of June there. It's comparable to as if it was in the upper 70s this time of year in Vermont.  

Utqiagvik also set a record on Friday, when the low temperature was 28 degrees, which was the warmest low for any date in December.

This time of year the normal high temperature in Utqiagvik is 4 above and the low would be 9 below.  It's so far north that the sun set in Utqiagvik on November 18 and won't rise above the horizon again until January 23.

So it clearly wasn't the sun's heat that caused the December heat wave in the northern reaches of Alaska. Instead, a strong storm well to the west pushed warm air from points much further south into the region.

Jokesters on social media are saying this is a current view of
Utqiagvik, on the northern tip of Alaska. In reality, it's dark
and cold there, but by their standards, just had a shockingly 
warm day that has people stunned

The air flowed down the slopes of the Brooks Range, which is to the south of Utqiagvik, which helped compress and warm the air. Also, a relative lack of sea ice along and off the coast might have also contributed.  

What passes for winter warm spells in Alaska happen from time to time, but such extreme warmth had been unheard of in northern Alaska until now.  I can't help but think climate change was a factor here. 

The Arctic is warming as much as four times faster than midlatitudes, and this can be seen in Utquiagvik.  As the Weather Channel points out, since 2015, the town has set monthly all time record highs in January, May, June, October and now December. 

The Washington Post tells us December warmth was not limited to Utqiagvik.  It's been widespread across much of northern Alaska and the Arctic as a whole. 

Umiat, roughly 170 miles southeast of Utqiagvik saw temperatures rise into the 40s in December for the first time since at least World War II.

In another part of the Arctic far from Alaska, Nuuk which is Greenland's capital, reached a whopping 50 degrees as December started. Most of the island's weather stations rose above freezing that day. Iceland got up as high as 58 degrees.

In the Arctic as a whole, the first few days of December were a good 11.5 degrees warmer than normal,  the Washington Post reports. 

  

Another Enormous Heat Wave Building, Texas To Canadian Arctic. Vermont Stays Cool

While  most of the Northern Hemisphere has been wilting 
under intense heat waves so far this summer, they've 
been missing us in Vermont. Flowers on my back
shown here enjoying a sunny but temperate 
Fourth of July.

 Summer isn't even half over, but the northern hemisphere has had one epic heat wave after another. 

Just in the past week, places as diverse as Tokyo and Oslo have had brutal hot spells. There seems to be very few places left that have not had a record heat wave this summer. Vermont, the rest of New England and southeastern Canada are in the small minority of lucky places that have not yet had record heat this summer. 

No big hot spells are in the offing here through at least the third week in July it seems, but elsewhere, new big heat waves are coming fast and furiously. 

This next one is going to hit large portions of central North America. In some places, the heat will be particularly dangerous because it will last many days with no relief.  In the central and southern Plains, the extreme heat could last up to two weeks.

Now, this area is normally hot in the summer anyway, but this will heat wave will be quite draining. 

For instance, today will probably be the "coldest" out of at least the next ten days in Oklahoma City. The forecast high there today is 100 degrees. From here on out daily high temperatures through at least early next week there will be close to 105 degrees. Normal highs this time of year in Oklahoma City are in the low 90s. 

Heat advisories are up for a vast portion of the nation's middle today, and I expect more heat advisories and warnings out there daily for the foreseeable future.

The heat in the middle of the nation will last so long because a "heat dome," which is a large area of hot high pressure, seems not want to move for a long time.  It'll just sit there, creating day after day of intense heat, and possibly causing a "flash drought" in the process. 

Air under heat domes tends to sink, which is exactly the opposite of what you want to produce summertime showers and thunderstorms. The only hope for rain in this heat zone is if any weak disturbances managed to briefly infiltrate it.

The hot weather picks up where June left off.  Overall we saw about three times the number of daily record highs in the U.S compared to record lows. 

Here in Vermont, we're well north and  east of the heat dome, which sets up a pretty steady flow of air from the west and northwest. That'll ensure a series of cold fronts will come through over the next week or two, keeping humidity and check and temperatures near or a little cooler than normal.

Since the air is from a drier region and not the south, rainfall here in Vermont does not look like it'll be all that impressive, but we will get our share of showers from time to time. The next shot at any rain is tomorrow.

I almost forgot to mention another concerning area of at least relative heat in North America. Far northern Canada and areas of the high Arctic adjacent to Canada are experiencing odd warmth for the region. That northern heat, like the hot stuff in the U.S. southern Plains is expected to last a long time. 

Places like Inuvik way up in Canada's Northwest Territories, is experiencing a week long spell of high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Normal highs there are about 60 degrees this time of year. The heat is expected to spread into Nunavut later in the week. That's in an Arctic region west of Greenland. 

The heat is causing concern about sea ice in the Arctic. It could melt even more than it has in recent summers, which is a lot. The hot conditions could also set off some high latitude wildfires. Those are bad, of course, for many reasons.  The fires lay down soot on Arctic ice and on Greenland, which can cause ice to melt faster in the summer.

Plus the fires add more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, which is not good for climate change. And, with the northwest flow continuing here in New England, smoke from up there could easily cause smoky or hazy skies and elevated pollution levels here.  

A Warm Global January Continues The Long Trend; Long Hot Summer In Antarctica Too

January, 2022 was warm in most places in the world 
compared to previous Januaries, continuing a long
unrelenting trend in global warming 

The monthly global climate review from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information came out today to say that January, 2022 followed in the footsteps of much of 2021,  

To wit, January was the world's sixth warmest on record. That follows the trend of 2021, when many months were around fifth or sixth hottest.

That all makes sense, because the ocean patterns are in a La Nina phase, which features cool waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean off of South America. La Ninas tend to cool the world, so we're not seeing the monthly "hottest on record" reports we were seeing during the opposite El Nino a year or two back. 

It all means that climate change is roaring right along, especially since we continue to score "Top 10" warmest months during what should be a cooler phase.   NOAA has already concluded that 2022 will be among the top 10 warmest on record.  Or at least there's a 99 percent chance of that happening. The period of reliable records goes back 143 years. 

And yes, I know we here in Vermont had the coldest January since 2009, but we're a mere dot if that on the globe.  What goes on in Vermont certainly does not stay in Vermont. If you are under the age of 46, you have never seen a global January that was cooler than the 20th century average.

Meanwhile, a warm summer, at least for Antarctica, helped drive drive sea ice extent at the bottom of the world to its second lowest level on record.  If you're looking for a glimmer of hope, of sorts, Arctic sea ice extent was the largest since 2009. But that's not saying much. The Arctic sea ice extent was still below normal for the month. 

We're only half way through February, but I don't see any signs that the global "top ten warmest" trend will end by the time we get all of this month's data in.  

Blizzard Over, But Much Of Nation, Including Vermont, Faces New Wide-Ranging Winter Storm

Some damage to trees from freezing rain in Alburgh,
Vermont in January, 2020.  The Green Mountain State
is at risk for a winter storm toward Thursday that could
drop a bunch of snow, rain, ice or all of the above. 

The remarkable well-forecasted Blizzard of '22 has wrapped up in New England, and we're just left with another frigid, below zero morning. 

The snow of course missed Vermont, but the icy air sure didn't. This was the 15th morning that Burlington, Vermont has gotten to zero or below this month. 

 That's the most in a single month since 17 such days happened in February, 2015. The most zero or subzero days in one month was 23 in January, 1970, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington.

Coming up, we have a warmup and a potentially messy, snarly possibility of a winter storm. More on that in a bit. 

First some final blizzard stats: 

The most snow I've seen reported from the storm so far is 30.9 inches in Stoughton, Massachusetts, followed closely by 30.4 in Sharon, Mass. and 30 inches in Quincy.  Many reports of more than two feet of snow came in from Massachusetts, especially in the South Shore area.

Boston picked up 23.8 inches of snow, their seventh largest snowstorm on record. It was also Boston's snowiest single January day on record as well.

The storm did verify as an official blizzard in parts of Delaware, New Jersey, Long Island, New York, eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Massachusetts. 

The last of the blizzard warnings in the United States expired in Downeast Maine earlier this morning.  As of 6 a.m., it has already stopped snowing in that neck of the woods.  The most reported snow in Maine was 18 inches at Brunswick. 

Some wags called this New England storm a "blizzicane" considering the several hours of sometimes hurricane force gusts along the coast. Barnstable, Massachusetts reported a gust to 83 mph and there quite a few gusts of 70 mph or more along the New England coast. 

Now that the Blizzard of '22 is over in New England, attention is turning to a new winter storm. 

NEW STORM

The National Weather Service is already gearing up to warn people of yet another nasty winter storm that will affect a broad area from Texas to New England during the middle of the week. This one will cover much more real estate than our dearly departed Blizzard of '22 did.

Worse, it will contain a wide variety of weather, including heavy snow, a bunch of freezing rain, possible flooding, a chance at severe thunderstorms, high winds and bitter cold, depending upon where you are. 

This won't be a powerful, deep concentrated storm like the one New England just had.  Instead, the next winter storm will be the child of a strong, warm ridge of high pressure off the East Coast, a feed of rich moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, and a sharp Arctic blast heading southward through the middle of the nation. 

By Wednesday, a slow moving cold front will extend from somewhere in or near northern New England to Texas. One or more storms will ride northeastward along this front, making full use of the deep Gulf of Mexico moisture. 

This far out, the devil is in the details as to who gets what and how bad. But this is a classic setup for a damaging ice storm somewhere.  At this point, that seems most likely in a band from northeast Texas, through Arkansas to southern Illinois, but that picture could shift north or south. 

Northwest of that ice would be a heavy snowstorm. People southeast of the ice zone could see some flooding. 

Also, as the storm eventually works its way into the Northeast, rain and thawing atop all that blizzard snow could also result in a flood.

Meanwhile, Texas can expect an Arctic cold snap that might not be as destructive as the disaster last February, but will still be a hard test for the state's rickety electrical infrastructure.

VERMONT IMPACTS

It's unclear what this new storm will do to the Green Mountain State, but it will probably be a lot more than the blizzard that missed us Saturday.

Depending on where the stalled front sets up, we could see anything from a heavy snowstorm, to another round of ugly freezing rain, or just warm, plain rain that could cause localized flooding especially if the rain breaks up ice in the rivers.

From this vantage point, the best chance of a snowstorm is north of Route 2 and the best chance of a warm rain is south of Route 4 on Thursday. Some places in Vermont could get a bunch of freezing rain, which isn't good. 

That's just a wild stab in the dark at this point. Vermont is going to be very close to some super warm air just to the south and some Arctic air just to the north. With that set up, it's impossible to tell at this point where in Vermont the cold air might invade, or where the warmth might filter in. 

We'll just have to update as we go along. Expect benign weather with a welcome warming trend through Wednesday. Then, all bets are off.