Saturday Evening Vermont/New England Snow Forecast Update

The updated snowstorm forecast for Sunday night. 
There's still a big bust potential with this forecast, 
and we could end up with much less or much
more than indicated here. 

Very much like this morning, there's still some questions as to how much snow will fall in Vermont and elsewhere in New England with a fast-moving nor'easter Sunday night, but the forecasts are coming into better focus. 

Before we get into that, we should recap the wind we saw in Vermont today, especially in the Champlain Valley. As of 5 p.m. that wind was dying down, after some pretty hefty gusts earlier. 

Top wind speeds reported include 56 mph at Colchester Reef, 50 mph at the Milton Sandbar and 49 mph at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 

Luckily there were very few power outages to report as the winds did not appear quite strong enough to cause damage.

We're still expecting that cold front tonight. It's already created scattered rain and snow showers this afternoon and evening. Southwest winds aloft have prevented the Champlain Valley from really getting anything.

Temperatures will crash later tonight as the cold front comes through and the Arctic air rushes in.

THE STORM

Forecasts for this nor'easter that will race past us Sunday night have settled on a path that would take it probably just offshore of Cape Cod and Nantucket. 

That puts central New England in the golden zone for snow. A stripe of winter storm warnings for heavy snow extends from West Virginia, on through western Maryland, eastern Pennsylvania, southern New York, Connecticut and Massachusetts

The winter storm watch in Bennington and Windham counties in far southern Vermont has been upgraded to a winter storm warning. Most places under the warnings can expect six to nine inches of snow. 

A winter weather advisory goes north into Rutland, Windsor and Orange counties, where three to seven inches of snow are anticipated.

Totals are still expected to taper off pretty quickly as you head northwest. It looks like the Champlain Valley might only see an inch or two of snow.

Maybe. 

The above forecast is as it stood as of Saturday evening. There's still a ton of wiggle room in this prediction. A slight shift in the storm's path will upend this forecast. That's because there will be a sharp cutoff on the northwestward edge of the storm between heavy snow and basically flurries. 

The storm could still nudge itself a little further northwestward than expected. If that happens, most of Vermont could really get a decent dump. On the other hand, a slight shift further southeastward than expected might leave most of the Green Mountain State without much snow at all.

Whatever happens, it will be pretty cold while it's snowing. Temperatures will fall into the single numbers or at best, lower teens. That'll leave us with really fluffy snow, if it snows where you are. 

This will be a brief snowfall because the storm will be racing by so quickly. It'll start in southern Vermont late Sunday afternoon and the evening elsewhere. It's scheduled to end before dawn Monday. 

Plan on difficult travel Sunday night, especially the further south and east you go. The snowplows will clear most of the snow off the road pretty quickly, but it'll be too cold for salt to work. Which means icy roads will linger on roads and highways well into the Monday morning commute.

One part of the forecast that has stayed firm is the anticipated frigid weather. We'll have highs in the single numbers to low teens Monday through Wednesday, with below zero readings at night. Breezes will introduce a bitter wind chill to this mess.