A Quiet Weather January In Vermont Will End Just As Quietly

Snow on Mount Mansfield glows in cold sunshine
Wednesday as viewed from Underhill, Vermont. It
has been a quiet weather month in the region. 

 Unless some big surprises happen in the final eight days of January, Vermont will have had a very quiet first month of 2025, at least in terms of weather. 

So far this month, there's been no big snowstorms, no giant thaws, no horrific windstorms like we had last year. Just a bunch of snow flurries, and some decent but not extraordinary dumps of fluff on the Green Mountains. 

For most of us in Vermont, it has been a really dry month and that looks like it will continue right through to February 1 and possibly beyond. 

 I guess the weather this year decided to join the "Dry January" trend in which humans give up the booze for the month.

Or something like that. 

THE STATS

Burlington has a shot at having one of the top ten driest Januaries on record. They've had 0.53 inches of melted down snow (and rain on January 1).  The driest January on record has 0.42 inches, so we won't break that record. But the tenth driest January had 0.69 inches.  

I'm doubting we will have the 0.16 inches of melted snow or rain by the end of the month to escape the top ten. For reference, normal January precipitation is 2.13 inches. 

It also seems like it's been cold this month, but it really hasn't. Through Wednesday, the mean temperature for the month has very close to normal.   This, remember, is the "new normal" based on the average temperature over the past 30 years, which was warmer than the 20th century average thanks to climate change. 

Had this month so far happened in the mid-20th century, we'd be remarking about how mild it has been. 

This month only seems cold because the last two winter were so much warmer than average. Last winter was the warmest on record. And January, 2023 was the fourth warmest on record.

The range in temperatures his month has been a yawner, too. So far, the warmest it's gotten in Burlington is 44 and the coldest is minus 2.  In past years, it's been as warm as 66 degrees during January in Burlington and as cold as 30 below. 

THE OUTLOOK

It looks like the final eight or nine days of the month will pretty much feature a persistent, fast air flow from the west/northwest, taking weather systems quickly from south central Canada, then just north of the Great Lakes and then through southern Quebec or northern New England.  

That means weak, fast moving disturbances will come through at least every other day. Since there will be no humid flow of air coming up from the Gulf of Mexico or the Atlantic Ocean, each little mini storm will have scant moisture to work with. 

Which means all we'll get is little bits of flurries and scattered light snow every once in awhile. Most of that paltry bit of snow would fall in the northern Green Mountains, which has been the state of affairs all month. 

Since this air flow won't really be able to tap a lot of frigid Arctic air from the North Pole, I'm thinking  our temperatures for the rest of the month will vary from close to normal on some days, and just a little below normal on others.

In the short term, it'll be just a little on the cool side through Saturday, then a little on the mild side Sunday through Tuesday, then somewhat chilly again toward the middle and end of next week. 

But we shouldn't see any big wild January thaws or temperatures insanely below zero, either.  

I suppose there could always be a surprise or two around the bend between now and Ground Hog Day. 

Maybe this quiet January is a good omen. Vermont has had way too many instances of extreme weather over the past two years. Sometimes with tragic results. Maybe this January is signaling a comparatively calm weather year in 2025.

Given how extreme the weather has gotten world wide and locally in this age of climate change, though, I wouldn't count on these placid conditions sticking around in Vermont all year. 

There's always something lurking.