New England In For Biggest Bout Of Cold And Snow This Winter, With A Snowstorm Thrown IN

Despite some concern that forecasts could shift a lot
the expected snowfall map, released by the 
National Weather Service Sunday morning, is little
changed from forecasts we saw yesterday. 

 Central New England is set to have arguably its biggest snowstorm of the winter while the entire region plunges into our long awaited Arctic blast. 

Up here in Vermont, high temperatures for today were just after midnight, as it was still in the 30s.  Those temperatures were crashing downward as of dawn. They might level off a bit at midday, then crash more tonight.

As those temperatures are crashing, our fast moving nor'easter still is laying down or plans to lay down a stripe of fairly heavy snow from the mountains of western North Carolina and east Tennessee northeastward up through West Virginia, western Maryland, eastern Pennsylvania, northwest New Jersey, parts of New York and most of the southeastern half of New England. 

Due to the fast forward pace of this nor'easter, I don't think anybody will have incredible amounts of snow. Few places will see up to a foot. Most of the worst hit areas will have a half foot or a little more, But while the storm is passing through, it will snow really hard, at a rate of one to two inches per hour.

That's more than enough to really screw up travel. 

The heaviest snow will pass through this afternoon in the Middle Atlantic States and this evening in New England. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

All through yesterday and last night, I saw lots of potential for the expected heaviest snowfall to shift either further north into more of Vermont, or shift away from the state.

So far, though, the forecasts have remained pretty consistent.  The band of heaviest snow should brush southernmost parts of the state, which is why Bennington and Windham counties are still under a winter storm warning. 

Those areas are still expecting four to eight inches of new snow, with it coming down at a healthy rate of an inch per hour this evening. 

Just north of the winter storm warning, and roughly just south and east of a line from Middlebury, through Montpelier to St. Johnsbury, a winter weather advisory is up. Those areas look like they can expect a quick shot of three to seven inches of snow, 

Amounts should taper off pretty fast as you head further northwest. For the Champlain Valley, it looks like one to three inches. Maybe even less as you get way up to the northwest corner of the state up by Alburgh.

MORE STORM DETAILS:

It'll be interesting to see how well the snow will punch northwestward across the state. It'll be battling that frigid Arctic air that is flooding in.   That air is super dry, and could evaporate the snow in the northwest as it tries to fall.  That could lead to a forecast bust, with perhaps little or no snow falling up there. We shall see.

In fact, there is still some hemming and hawing as of Sunday morning as to how this storm will play out. The consensus is what I've written about above, but there's still the risk of a surprise bigger dump, or a big whiff.  Like all New England nor'easters, almost nothing is guaranteed.

While it is snowing this evening and overnight, temperatures will be falling through the teens into the single digits. That's really cold for a snowfall, and guarantees the snow will be very fluffy and light.

Given that nor'easters have a good breeze with them, we should have lots of problems with blowing and drifting snow during and after the storm. 

Even though the snow will be pretty much over with by the time you get up Monday morning, roads will still be snow covered and slippery, with drifts. Remember, road salt won't be working very well, so don't rely on the state highway department salt shaker trucks to solve every problem.

THE COLD

Although this will be far from the worst cold wave Vermont and New England can possibly experience, it's still worth taking it seriously. Temperatures should stay in the teens by day and near zero by night coming up early this week even in southern New England.

Up here in Vermont, daytime highs Monday through Wednesday still look like they'll be in the single numbers to maybe low teens. Overnight lows will be below zero.

Stiff winds Monday and Tuesday should keep wind chills in the teens below zero. Those planning a ski holiday in the mountains will really want to take care. Wind chills high up on the ski slopes Monday and Tuesday should end up in the 30s below zero.

The Arctic cold will last into Thursday morning before temperatures start to warm up to more seasonable, comfortable levels. 

The New England nor'easter and cold snap is part of a wild week the United States is having over the next few days.  Winter storm watches are up along the Gulf Coast of all places for expected snow and ice.

Bitter cold is gripping most of the nation from the Rockies east. And another round of dangerous, strong, dry fire-spreading winds are on tap for southern California. I'll cover all this in more detailed, separate posts today.