Yes, It'll Be A Nasty Cold Wave, But Far From The Worst It Could Get

Lots of dark blue on the forecast map for this coming
Tuesday, January 21. That means most of the 
Lower 48 is going to be shivering in Arctic air,
but this one won't be nearly as horrible as
some historic past cold waves. 

 A big Arctic outbreak is making its way into the United States and will dominate the weather headlines for a few days.  

It will be brutally frigid, colder than a room full of ex-wives at a wedding. But    this won't be a record breaker, despite the huge area of the nation it's about to hit. 

It follows a general trend in which cold waves are losing some of their punch in the age of climate change. That's not to say we will never see intense, dangerous, record cold again - it's just that it's getting less and less likely.

The Arctic outbreak coming in now would have been considered pretty routine, say in the 1960s or 1970s. 

In this one, temperatures up in parts of North Dakota and northern Minnesota could get into the low minus 30s.  But record lows this time of year, which is on average the coldest part of winter, are in the 40s below.

This cold wave could bring freezing temperatures and perhaps a little snow and ice as far south as Houston, New Orleans, and perhaps Tallahassee, Florida by the middle of next week. The prospect of snow in these areas is pretty uncertain, though. 

It doesn't snow often in these locations but they have had snow in the past. In Texas and surrounding areas, this cold snap won't be nearly as bad as the epic freeze of 2021, during which record cold temperatures and an ill-prepared Texas left the state with a collapsed power grid. The disaster killed nearly 300 people and caused $27 billion in damage. 

Inauguration Day in Washington DC is forecast to be the coldest since 1985, when Ronald Reagan's festivities were forced indoors by wind chills in the teens below zero and actual temperatures in the single numbers.

It won't be quite that bad with Trump's inauguration as temperatures are forecast to be in the mid-20s when he takes office. 

The cold wave will last about a week or less, but linger longest in the Southeast. Afterward, temperatures might not get terribly warm, but they will be more seasonable across most of the nation by next weekend. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

We'll certainly notice the approach and grand entrance of this cold wave in the Green Mountain State, but this won't be one for the record books for us, eithereither. 

Saturday will be warm and windy - very gusty in the Champlain Valley in fact.  Gusts could reach up to 50 mph in the windiest spots which opens up the possibility of a few scattered power outages. Nothing widespread, but something to keep an eye on.

Before temperatures get above freezing, there could be a lot of blowing snow around, too, which would leave us with some spots with poor visibility and sudden slick spots on roads here and there. 

Precipitation with the cold front will be very light, with just a few snow and rain showers here and there. The expected highs Saturday in the 35-40 degree range in the valleys will be the last mini-thaw for awhile. 

Temperatures will drop Sunday, and we'll be in the thick of the cold for a few days. 

There's one interesting little twist to this cold front.  A trailing storm is expected to form in the Southeast and head northeastward.  Originally, it was scheduled to pass too far to the south and east of Vermont to have any effect on us. 

Now, forecasters aren't so sure. It could pass close enough to give us a quick shot of snow late Sunday night and early Monday. It looks like this thing will whip by too quickly to dump a lot of snow, but we could still see some out of this after all.  Not sure on that one yet. 

True to form with 21st century cold snaps in Vermont, this one will be pretty brief, with the worst of it lasting from Sunday night into Wednesday. We haven't had a long lasting bitter cold wave in a long time.

That's not to say we will never again have seemingly endless winter frigid spells, but the truly deep, horrible, long lasting ones almost seem to be a thing of the past. 

Overnight lows in Burlington Sunday night through Wednesday night are currently forecast to each be within a few degrees of 0.  I'm almost sure a couple of those nights will be below zero.  Then the weather will turn seasonable again.

Compare that to January, 1968 in Burlington, when 14 of the first 17 days of the month got below zero, with five consecutive days in the minus 20s.  Or January, 1970, when 24 days were below zero, and all but one day in the ten day period from the 15th through the 24th were at least 11 below.

Or February, 1979, when nine out of the ten days fro the 9th through the 18th were at least 17 below, with the coldest being 30 below.

This winter is proving colder than recent ones, but they're a far cry from past bitter Arctic outbreaks we've had.