Yes, It'll Be A Nasty Cold Wave, But Far From The Worst It Could Get

Lots of dark blue on the forecast map for this coming
Tuesday, January 21. That means most of the 
Lower 48 is going to be shivering in Arctic air,
but this one won't be nearly as horrible as
some historic past cold waves. 

 A big Arctic outbreak is making its way into the United States and will dominate the weather headlines for a few days.  

It will be brutally frigid, colder than a room full of ex-wives at a wedding. But    this won't be a record breaker, despite the huge area of the nation it's about to hit. 

It follows a general trend in which cold waves are losing some of their punch in the age of climate change. That's not to say we will never see intense, dangerous, record cold again - it's just that it's getting less and less likely.

The Arctic outbreak coming in now would have been considered pretty routine, say in the 1960s or 1970s. 

In this one, temperatures up in parts of North Dakota and northern Minnesota could get into the low minus 30s.  But record lows this time of year, which is on average the coldest part of winter, are in the 40s below.

This cold wave could bring freezing temperatures and perhaps a little snow and ice as far south as Houston, New Orleans, and perhaps Tallahassee, Florida by the middle of next week. The prospect of snow in these areas is pretty uncertain, though. 

It doesn't snow often in these locations but they have had snow in the past. In Texas and surrounding areas, this cold snap won't be nearly as bad as the epic freeze of 2021, during which record cold temperatures and an ill-prepared Texas left the state with a collapsed power grid. The disaster killed nearly 300 people and caused $27 billion in damage. 

Inauguration Day in Washington DC is forecast to be the coldest since 1985, when Ronald Reagan's festivities were forced indoors by wind chills in the teens below zero and actual temperatures in the single numbers.

It won't be quite that bad with Trump's inauguration as temperatures are forecast to be in the mid-20s when he takes office. 

The cold wave will last about a week or less, but linger longest in the Southeast. Afterward, temperatures might not get terribly warm, but they will be more seasonable across most of the nation by next weekend. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

We'll certainly notice the approach and grand entrance of this cold wave in the Green Mountain State, but this won't be one for the record books for us, eithereither. 

Saturday will be warm and windy - very gusty in the Champlain Valley in fact.  Gusts could reach up to 50 mph in the windiest spots which opens up the possibility of a few scattered power outages. Nothing widespread, but something to keep an eye on.

Before temperatures get above freezing, there could be a lot of blowing snow around, too, which would leave us with some spots with poor visibility and sudden slick spots on roads here and there. 

Precipitation with the cold front will be very light, with just a few snow and rain showers here and there. The expected highs Saturday in the 35-40 degree range in the valleys will be the last mini-thaw for awhile. 

Temperatures will drop Sunday, and we'll be in the thick of the cold for a few days. 

There's one interesting little twist to this cold front.  A trailing storm is expected to form in the Southeast and head northeastward.  Originally, it was scheduled to pass too far to the south and east of Vermont to have any effect on us. 

Now, forecasters aren't so sure. It could pass close enough to give us a quick shot of snow late Sunday night and early Monday. It looks like this thing will whip by too quickly to dump a lot of snow, but we could still see some out of this after all.  Not sure on that one yet. 

True to form with 21st century cold snaps in Vermont, this one will be pretty brief, with the worst of it lasting from Sunday night into Wednesday. We haven't had a long lasting bitter cold wave in a long time.

That's not to say we will never again have seemingly endless winter frigid spells, but the truly deep, horrible, long lasting ones almost seem to be a thing of the past. 

Overnight lows in Burlington Sunday night through Wednesday night are currently forecast to each be within a few degrees of 0.  I'm almost sure a couple of those nights will be below zero.  Then the weather will turn seasonable again.

Compare that to January, 1968 in Burlington, when 14 of the first 17 days of the month got below zero, with five consecutive days in the minus 20s.  Or January, 1970, when 24 days were below zero, and all but one day in the ten day period from the 15th through the 24th were at least 11 below.

Or February, 1979, when nine out of the ten days fro the 9th through the 18th were at least 17 below, with the coldest being 30 below.

This winter is proving colder than recent ones, but they're a far cry from past bitter Arctic outbreaks we've had.  

Weather Whiplash Brings Us From (Almost) Spring, To Arctic, To (Almost) Spring

Well, that's better!

Rime ice clings to trees on the Burlington, Vermont 
waterfront early Saturday.  Steam coming off the lake
during the intense cold wave Friday and Friday night
froze to trees and other objects along the lake shore. 

We're waking up to a much warmer morning today than we did yesterday, when everybody was in the teens and 20s below zero.  Twenty-four hours later, most of us were seeing temperatures in the teens and 20s above zero. 

The swings in temperatures have been pretty amazing and extremely. 

When the cold snap started, the temperature at Burlington fell from 24 degrees at midnight, at the start of February 3, to 14 below by 11 p.m. Friday.  That's a drop of 38 degrees in just 23 hours.

As the cold wave bottomed out, the temperature in Burlington hovered between 14 and 15 below from Friday evening through 7 a.m. Saturday. At 7 a.m. Saturday, just before sunrise, Burlington was still at 15 below. 

From there, the temperature rose and rose without interruption. by 6 a.m. this morning, it was 20 degrees in Burlington, a full 35 degrees hotter than 24 hours earlier. 

The temperature will continue to climb and will be above freezing this afternoon - probably in the mid and upper 30s.

I could be jinxing things, but I'm pretty sure we won't see anything as cold as we dealt with Friday and Saturday morning until at least next winter. 

The plunge in temperature was so abrupt, and coming after what has been an otherwise warm winter, caused a lot of weird things to happen. 

One of them is frost quakes. This happens when water logged soil or rocks freeze fast. Sometimes they'll crack and fracture when they freeze, and you get a rumble and a little tremor. It feels just like a little earthquake. 

Other people in Vermont described what sounded like gun shots in the woods. No, nobody was firing rifles to celebrate how gawd awful cold it was. The theory is sap in trees was flash freezing, expanding and causing wood in the trees to pop and break.

Don't worry. This almost definitely did not cause any substantial damage to any trees.

Besides the record lows in that Arctic blast that I described in yesterday's post, I found a few more.

The Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang noted that the wind chill in Boston reached 39 below, the lowest wind chill since at least 1944. As noted yesterday, the record low temperature Saturday of 10 below in Boston was the coldest the city has seen since 1957.

Portland, Maine also had its lowest wind chill on record, at 45 below.

Nantucket's temperature got down to minus 3 which is an all time record low for them, for any date. 

A main reason why southern New England was able to establish these record lows was the rather unusual nature of this cold snap. Usually, the coldest temperatures in New England come in the winter when Arctic high pressure comes in when we have a snow cover.

A clear, calm night under these conditions allows temperatures to plummet.

But those clear, calm nights don't work as well in southern New England. There's usually not as much snow on the ground, and the proximity of the Atlantic Ocean modifies the cold.

This time, strong northwest winds drove unusually cold Arctic air southward, and that overwhelmed any influence from the ocean. These windy types of intense cold snaps are pretty rare, so this set of circumstances made this cold blast a record breaker.

Video: Aftermath of all the steam, steam devils and such on Burlington's waterfront. The steam froze to nearby trees and objects. Click on this link to view or on the image below if you see it.  

  

Nationwide Holiday Travel To Get Nightmarish By End Of Week

A forecast national weather map for this Friday morning
Dec. 23. It's not the look you want, especially if you're 
traveling. It shows a massive storm centered in
the Great Lakes screwing this up in the eastern
half of the U.S. with an Arctic outbreak
hot on the storm's heels. 

An ill-timed Arctic blast and major storm that we've been watching take shape will make for a mess for those of you trying to travel toward Thursday, Friday and Christmas Eve. 

While the particulars in some places are not cast in stone, it does pretty sure that a subzero and subfreezing blast of Arctic air will race north to south across the Canadian border in Montana and North Dakota and plunge south all the way through Texas and the Gulf Coast states.  

Parts of North Dakota and Montana expect actual "high" temperatures to only reach the teens below zero Tuesday through Friday.  Wind chills during this period are forecast to be in the 50s below zero.

The brunt of the frigid air is forecast to blast almost due south, toward Texas and the Gulf Coast. Much of Texas will endure up to three days below freezing, which would make this cold snap the worst in Texas since February, 2021.

You might remember that February, 2021 freeze the crippled the Texas power grid, causing dozens of deaths and widespread damage and suffering. (If you don't remember, it's the cold snap during which Ted Cruz fled to Cancun).

I'm not super confident about the Texas power grid even now, so I hope they don't have another crisis for the holiday.

The Arctic blast isn't even the worst of the trouble coming to U.S. travel this holiday. 

The forecasts have been surprisingly consistent in stirring up a rapidly intensifying, huge storm on Thursday smack dab in the middle of the nation.  This will cause a blizzard in the Midwest, possibly affecting major hubs like Chicago and St. Louis.  The National Weather Service office in Chicago is already telling people to make alternative travel plans Thursday and Friday. 

In other words, you probably won't be flying in or out of Chicago at the end of the week.

In the eastern third of the United States, the problem will be bouts of heavy rain and especially strong winds, quite possibly damaging. This will be followed by a flash freeze as Arctic air rushes in Friday. 

Outside of New England and upstate New York, there won't be much snow or ice to deal with, but still, it will be a destructive storm.  

Next up, Vermont is still not out of the woods with this upcoming storm

VERMONT EFFECTS

The storm is still a little over three days away from the Green Mountain State, but so far, the forecasts have been remarkably consistent with this big upcoming storm. It probably will affect your travel and holiday plans here, too.

The bottom line is, this isn't Green Mountain Power's best month. They're still trying to restore power to some residents still in the dark from Friday and Saturday's storm. As of early this morning, about 8,900 homes were without power, according to VTOutages.org.

The main threat from the end of the week storm is strong to damaging winds. It's too soon to put out any official alerts or warnings about the wind as yet. But the National Weather Service in South Burlington said wind advisories or high wind warnings are almost inevitable for at least parts of the state. 

This means more power outages are possible. Right in time for Christmas!  The first part of the storm would feature strong east to southeast winds Thursday night and Friday.  There could be some especially strong and destructive downslope winds on the west slopes of the Green Mountains. We don't know for sure whether that will happen. We'll need to get closer to the storm's arrival to make that determination.

As the storm's powerful cold front blast through, probably on Friday, a big surge of west winds could cause more problems. 

Ahead of that front, heavy rain, warm temperatures and melting snow could produce flooding. Any damage or even ruin the prospect of a white Christmas. A little mixed precipitation possible at the start of the storm would only add to the fun. 

All of this is still subject to some change. It probably won't work out exactly as outlined above. But, if you have travel plans this week - especially Thursday and Friday - it could get dicey.

Personally, I'm flying out of Vermont for some time in Delaware early on Thursday.  At least that's the plan. I'm hoping to beat the storm, as the worst of it won't arrive on the East Coast until later Thursday night and Friday. Fingers crossed! 

Stubborn Power Outages Continue In Vermont Post-Storm; Watching Potential Danger End Of Wee

Was too busy working to clear much snow from my St.
Albans, Vermont driveway today, so I have to get my
butt in gear today to finish it off. 

 Power outages from the big wet snowstorm we just had remained disturbingly high in Vermont this Sunday morning. 

As of 8:30 a.m. Sunday, about 24,500 outages remained, mostly in central and southeastern Vermont, according to Vermont Outages.  The only part of Vermont that was now totally in the clear was the five most northwesterly counties in Vermont.

This is by no means a dig at the crews working to restore power were doing a heroic job amid tons of snow, cold temperatures, and a tangle of fallen trees, branches and wires. 

As of last evening, Green Mountain Power said it had restored power to about 62,000 customers but had about 33,000 to go. They warned that some outages in more remote areas could last for days. 

So yes, this does easily rank as Vermont's most destructive snowstorm since December, 2014. This storm was kind of sleeper mini-disaster, as it has not gotten much publicity.  Of course, the storm did a lot of good as well. Ski areas got a huge boost ahead of the Christmas holiday, and the snow is pretty.

As I mentioned last night, I hope the hardest hit towns are establishing places for people to go to warm up.  I'm sure a lot of houses are cold and dark, something especially dangerous for the elderly and ill. 

We should be thankful it's only seasonably cold out there. Low temperatures over the next few nights will be in the upper teens an 20s with high temperatures near 32 degrees. Temperatures this time of year can go into the teens below zero at night, which would be really horrible in this situation. I think it will be warm enough in most houses without power that the pipes won't freeze. 

Although the weather in Vermont will remain pretty mellow today through Thursday morning, danger still lurks at the end of the week. 

Forecasts still call for a terrible Arctic outbreak to plunge into the middle of the United States and blast all the way down through Texas, then spread east.

On the front side of that Arctic blast, a huge storm is still forecast to blossom and cause plenty of pre-Christmas havoc.

We still have lots of questions about how that storm will play out, but similar to last night, the current forecast has a powerhouse of a storm forming somewhere in the vicinity of Tennessee, intensifying and roaring up into the eastern Great Lakes.

That would cause a blizzard in the Midwest and Great Lakes, and strong, potentially damaging winds in most of the eastern United States.

For us in Vermont, we'd be at risk for mixed precipitation, then rain and possible flooding. Strong winds would also be an issue. With trees weakened by our recent snowstorm, powerful winds would cause additional power outages.

A strong cold front with the storm would also cause a flash freeze, which is kind of ugly.

That said, since the storm's nascent energy is still somewhere up near Alaska, the computer models won't have a great handle on how this storm will shape up until at least a couple days from now.  The scenario on this storm I just outlined has a huge potential to change radically. 

Basically, expect something Thursday, Friday and into Christmas Eve, but exactly what is a little hard to tell at this point. 

Winter Storms In Weird Places Next Few Days, Nothing Of Note Here In Vermont

To lighten the mood during a snow and ice storm in South
Carolina Sunday, police arrest Elsa from Frozen for
bringing the winter weather. Elsa's not done yet. Another
winter storm is due in the Carolinas Friday and Saturday

We routinely go under winter storm watches this time of year here in Vermont. We just had such advisories the other day with that storm Monday. 

But nothing substantial is in our foreseeable future, but winter storms are hitting places that are not the usual targets. Like far southern Texas.  And, for the second time within a week, the Carolinas.

Texas is facing a classic "Blue Norther," in which cold air from Canada has an unfettered shot at heading south, blocked by absolutely no mountains from the northern Plains all the way down to the Rio Grande Valley. 

Moisture will try to ride up and over the shallow layer of cold air that will take up residence in South Texas Thursday night, so a winter storm watch is up for this odd place for some freezing rain and sleet.

Thankfully, this cold wave will be not nearly as intense or as long lasting as the one in Texas last February that trashed the state's electrical grid and caused hundreds of deaths.  

Next up, the Carolinas, which are still trying to recover from the big snow and ice storm that hit the two states Saturday.

The same expansive Arctic high pressure that will freeze South Texas will keep the Southeast quite chilly, too.  As the cold air comes in, a storm will try to get going off the Carolina coast. This will throw moisture back into the Carolinas to mix with the cold air.

Areas closer to the coast that did not get freezing rain and sleet Sunday will probably get it this time. Freezing rain is forecast to make it all the way to the coast, hitting cities like Wilmington, North Carolina and Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. 

Central North and South Carolina, including big cities like Raleigh, should get at least a couple inches of snow and sleet.

 This part of the nation isn't really built for winter storms. A couple inches of snow and sleet for us in New England is no biggie, but for Southerners, it's game over. 

The huge Arctic high pressure that is messing things up in Texas and the Carolinas is screwing things up in Vermont, too.  In our case, it's preventing us from getting any more needed snow.

The high pressure will help squash that developing storm in the Carolinas to the south, and at this point, it looks like that storm will go much to far to the south and east to have any effect on us in Vermont. 

For us the small "Alberta Clipper" that will introduce us to that next Arctic shot is producing snow showers and gusty winds in northern Vermont this morning. Snow accumulation in most places should be an inch or less.

The brief cold blast from yesterday brought temperatures into the single numbers and teens below zero last night before temperatures started rising again. (Island Pond in the Northeast Kingdom got down to 22 below).

Temperatures might actually briefly rise above freezing in some spots this afternoon because of strong south winds. 

The storm's cold front will come through tonight with a round of snow showers to begin the cold snap.  The front looks like it might briefly slow down or stall near southern New England tomorrow morning, creating a potential commuter nightmare from Washington DC to Boston. 

For us in Vermont, just cold.