Monday, December 19, 2022

Nationwide Holiday Travel To Get Nightmarish By End Of Week

A forecast national weather map for this Friday morning
Dec. 23. It's not the look you want, especially if you're 
traveling. It shows a massive storm centered in
the Great Lakes screwing this up in the eastern
half of the U.S. with an Arctic outbreak
hot on the storm's heels. 
An ill-timed Arctic blast and major storm that we've been watching take shape will make for a mess for those of you trying to travel toward Thursday, Friday and Christmas Eve. 

While the particulars in some places are not cast in stone, it does pretty sure that a subzero and subfreezing blast of Arctic air will race north to south across the Canadian border in Montana and North Dakota and plunge south all the way through Texas and the Gulf Coast states.  

Parts of North Dakota and Montana expect actual "high" temperatures to only reach the teens below zero Tuesday through Friday.  Wind chills during this period are forecast to be in the 50s below zero.

The brunt of the frigid air is forecast to blast almost due south, toward Texas and the Gulf Coast. Much of Texas will endure up to three days below freezing, which would make this cold snap the worst in Texas since February, 2021.

You might remember that February, 2021 freeze the crippled the Texas power grid, causing dozens of deaths and widespread damage and suffering. (If you don't remember, it's the cold snap during which Ted Cruz fled to Cancun).

I'm not super confident about the Texas power grid even now, so I hope they don't have another crisis for the holiday.

The Arctic blast isn't even the worst of the trouble coming to U.S. travel this holiday. 

The forecasts have been surprisingly consistent in stirring up a rapidly intensifying, huge storm on Thursday smack dab in the middle of the nation.  This will cause a blizzard in the Midwest, possibly affecting major hubs like Chicago and St. Louis.  The National Weather Service office in Chicago is already telling people to make alternative travel plans Thursday and Friday. 

In other words, you probably won't be flying in or out of Chicago at the end of the week.

In the eastern third of the United States, the problem will be bouts of heavy rain and especially strong winds, quite possibly damaging. This will be followed by a flash freeze as Arctic air rushes in Friday. 

Outside of New England and upstate New York, there won't be much snow or ice to deal with, but still, it will be a destructive storm.  

Next up, Vermont is still not out of the woods with this upcoming storm

VERMONT EFFECTS

The storm is still a little over three days away from the Green Mountain State, but so far, the forecasts have been remarkably consistent with this big upcoming storm. It probably will affect your travel and holiday plans here, too.

The bottom line is, this isn't Green Mountain Power's best month. They're still trying to restore power to some residents still in the dark from Friday and Saturday's storm. As of early this morning, about 8,900 homes were without power, according to VTOutages.org.

The main threat from the end of the week storm is strong to damaging winds. It's too soon to put out any official alerts or warnings about the wind as yet. But the National Weather Service in South Burlington said wind advisories or high wind warnings are almost inevitable for at least parts of the state. 

This means more power outages are possible. Right in time for Christmas!  The first part of the storm would feature strong east to southeast winds Thursday night and Friday.  There could be some especially strong and destructive downslope winds on the west slopes of the Green Mountains. We don't know for sure whether that will happen. We'll need to get closer to the storm's arrival to make that determination.

As the storm's powerful cold front blast through, probably on Friday, a big surge of west winds could cause more problems. 

Ahead of that front, heavy rain, warm temperatures and melting snow could produce flooding. Any damage or even ruin the prospect of a white Christmas. A little mixed precipitation possible at the start of the storm would only add to the fun. 

All of this is still subject to some change. It probably won't work out exactly as outlined above. But, if you have travel plans this week - especially Thursday and Friday - it could get dicey.

Personally, I'm flying out of Vermont for some time in Delaware early on Thursday.  At least that's the plan. I'm hoping to beat the storm, as the worst of it won't arrive on the East Coast until later Thursday night and Friday. Fingers crossed! 

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