Warm Weather Pattern In U.S. Could Lead To New Year Springtime Hazards; Record Vermont Warmth?

Forecast rainfall map for the U.S. for the next 7 days.
Parts of California could have more than 10 inches of 
rain or water equivalent in mountain snow. Large
swaths of the Gulf Coast states can expect more
than five inches of rain 

UPDATE: 10:30 a.m.

Burlington, Vermont has already set a new record high for the date. As of 10 a.m. it was 52 degrees, besting the old record of 51 set in 1990.

The temperature will almost surely keep rising through at least part of the day, so today's record high should get even hotter. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

The warm weather enveloping much of the nation has its drawbacks. 

Springlike hazards, like severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and flash flooding, are in play for parts of the nation. Luckily, here in Vermont, this pattern does favor frequent storms. But so far at least, we're not in for any renewed, extreme storms like we saw right before Christmas.  

Up here in Vermont, we'll bask in the springtime warmth as well. More on that below.

The ever present Polar Vortex is way up north, tightly wound and strong. When that happens, it's really  hard for Arctic air to blast south into the U.S.  When we get a situation like this, the door is open for mild Pacific air to flow west to east across the nation. 

In yesterday's post,   I already brought up the flood risk in California, as storms repeatedly smack into the West Coast. California's flooding is not really a spring time thing, but it is something that can cause a lot of damage.

Californians are worried about flash flooding, debris flows and mudslides this week.

As the storms come eastward, they'll draw even more, warm, wet air out of the Gulf of Mexico, which means all kinds of hazards.

The first storm isn't super strong, but it's enough to cause some danger. There's a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms or even a tornado or two near the Gulf Coast today and tomorrow.

A couple to a few inches of rain might come down today in some areas in the Gulf Coast states today, possibly causing some local flooding, and perhaps priming the pump for more flooding as the next few storms to come along in the next week or two. 

Those storms are on the way.  

There were more than the usual number of tornadoes in the U.S. in November and December. It appears there's a risk that this trend might continue in the opening days of 2023.

The second storm to cross the nation from California looks stronger than the first one That gives us the potential, at least to spin off more twisters in the South. Early indications suggest we could see a fairly substantial outbreak of severe weather this coming Monday and Tuesday in the Gulf Coast states.

That severe weather could be accompanied by flooding as well.

This same storm early next week also looks like it wants to lay down a swath of snow across parts of the central and northern Plains. That, by the way, is also a typical scenario with spring type storms. 

With that polar vortex locked up way up north and spinning itself up tightly, any outbreaks of cold Canadian air look brief and not all that wildly cold into the middle of January.  .The parade of storms across the nation will probably continue in one form or another as well. 

It's normal to have a few warm days here and there during the winter. But the length of this warm spell will be pretty remarkable. New York City could have at least 10 days in a row with temperatures reaching at least 50 degrees.  Washington DC has a shot of reaching 60 degrees or more daily today through Wednesday.

VERMONT EFFECTS

Today dawned super warm in much of Vermont. The low temperature in Burlington was 45 degrees, well above the record for the highest low temperature for the date, which was 35 degrees. It won't get down to that level by midnight tonight, so that record will be set.

Vermont AOT traffic cam image from Williston this
morning shows most of the snow received before
Christmas is already gone. More melting will
continue over the next week

Burlington has a great shot at reaching a record high today as well. The record for the date is 51 degrees set in 1990. The forecast high is 52 degrees today in Burlington. Other towns and cities in Vermont will also likely see or come close to record highs.  

It will stay very warm through the New Year's holiday. Rain from that first storm will hold daytime temperatures Friday through Sunday in the 40s.  Those aren't record highs, but they sure are awfully warm for this time of year. 

Rain, low clouds and fog on New Year's Eve might make midnight fireworks viewing a little tricky.

It'll cool off a little Sunday afternoon and into the beginning of next week, but it will remain warmer than normal. Another warm storm is due midweek. That storm is the one that would bring possible tornadoes to the South, but it will just get rainy again in New England.