Vermont Snow Forecast Mostly On Track, But Bust Potential In Valleys

The National Weather Service snow forecast map, updated
early this morning, isn't changed much since yesterday,
but there is a bust potential on projected accumulations
in some of the warmer valleys.

UPDATE 1:30 PM FRIDAY

So far, this is, kind of as expected turning  into a tale of two very different storms in Vermont.

West of the Green Mountains, especially in the valleys, it's just been light snow, mixed with a little rain at times. Much of the snow is melting as it hits.'

Road conditions aren't bad in western Vermont at all.

Meanwhile, at most of the higher elevations, say above 900 feet or so, this is a bonafide, strong snowstorm.

This is especially true on the east slopes of the Green Mountains. 

So far, 8.5 inches have been reported at Rochester, 7.5 inches in Sharon and 7 inches at White River Junction.

State highway web cams show some pretty lousy road conditions in these areas. The snow, again as expected, is wet and heavy, so power issues are increasing. It looks like about 2,000 customers, mostly in southeastern Vermont, were without power as of 1:30 p.m. That number was increasing.

Things will probably get worse as we go through the afternoon and evening. The wet snow will continue in the mid and higher elevations, which will further strain power lines.  There are still signs that snowfall will increase in the lower elevations of western Vermont as we head further into the afternoon and evening

That means the snow will accumulate even there. Road conditions would deteriorate as this happens.  If enough wet snow falls by tonight, there could be some power outage issues in western Vermont as well.

I'll do a full update late this afternoon or very early this evening

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 

Before dawn broke this morning, the previous forecast for our long awaited snowstorm is more or less the same as those issued yesterday, but I also noticed some hemming and hawing with this forecast, especially in Vermont's valleys.  

I'm seeing the potential for a bust forecast in some of the warmer valleys. Don't give up on the snow yet! 

But there are factors that MIGHT limit accumulations. This will still be a nice high elevation dump, though. 

A winter storm warning remains in effect statewide in Vermont. Even in the off chance this storm is slightly weaker than forecast - and don't count on that - we still have bad roads and the risk of power outages. 

THIS IFFY MORNING

The first issue I see is that first thump of snow coming through this morning. For one thing, it's running later than advertised. It didn't start snowing here in St. Albans until around 5:30 p.m. and hasn't come down that hard yet. It started in Burlington a little after 4:30 a.m.

The second bigger problem is, as I suspected might happen, it is a little warmer than many forecasts indicated. It was 38 degrees at 4 a.m. in Burlington, just before the snow started. Other valley locations were also several degrees above freezing at the onset of snow.

That means some of this started as light rain. The precipitation is cooling the air, so it does quickly change over to snow as this moves northward. But since it's at least starting out above freezing, this initial thump won't accumulate as much as previously thought in the valleys.

Roads are still getting dicey, so this morning's commute will not be a picnic by any stretch of the imagination. As the snow began, the roads were mostly just wet. But as the snow picked up from south to north, I noticed on Vermont traffic cams that in some cases, the wet roads turned at least slushy.    Road crews are out, but if you must drive this morning, go slow and cautiously. 

Chances are you won't have to take your kids to school. The growing list of school closings in Vermont and surrounding areas is quite long. 

Meanwhile, in mid and high elevations, this first thump of snow is completely on track with forecasts so far. It was snowing hard in the somewhat higher spots in southern and central Vermont and that was steadily spreading north as of 6 a.m. 

AFTERNOON THAW?

We're still looking at a midday and afternoon lull in the precipitation, especially in the valleys and even more so west of the Green Mountains and parts of the Northeast Kingdom.

I the warmer valleys, like the Champlain, lower Connecticut and the Route 7 corridor from Brandon to Bennington, I see a bit of a thaw setting in, with temperatures even a little warmer than originally forecast.  A few spots could flirt with 40 degrees.

Meanwhile, the high elevations will continue to get their snow as very wet air from the Atlantic Ocean continues to blast in from the east.  That wet air will be forced to rise along the eastern slopes of the Greens. That will keep the snow cranking up there, especially in southern and central Vermont. 

This leads us to the second bust potential with this storm. 

OVERNIGHT QUESTIONS

The projected path of this storm through eastern New England is, on paper, a perfect set up for a good thump of snow at least somewhere in Vermont. 

So far just a light dusting of wet snow in St. Albans
as of 7:15 a.m. We'll see how this plays out between
now and Saturday

Usually, a band of moderate to heavy snow sets up a fair distance to the northwest of a nor'easter like this.  In this case, it would mean somewhere over Vermont.

If the forecast holds, that would mean several hours of steady, sometimes even heavy snow overnight in much of the state. That would be the bulk of this long lasting storm.

However, there's a chance this expected area of snow could be further east in New Hampshire. If that happens, snow totals from this storm will be a lot less than forecast.

If it's snowing in the valleys Saturday, it will taper off during the day into patchy light snow and snow showers. The flakes should keep flying in the mountains, especially from Killington north possibly into Sunday.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Accumulations: 

Total accumulations through Saturday afternoon look to be at about four to 10 inches in lower elevations. There could be huge differences in snow depth over short distances. Totals might be as little as two or three inches right along the immediate shore of Lake Champlain, and several inches deeper just a handful of miles inland. 

The mid and high elevations are still in for a decent dump.  I would say most towns at or above 900 feet are in for at least eight inches of snow, unless that overnight burst tonight ends up being a total bust. Some places could get over a foot.

The mountains should still do pretty well, with at least a foot at the ski resorts. A few places could reach two feet up there.

Road Conditions

The conditions were going downhill as of 7 a.m. today.  In general, low elevation roads aren't quite as bad as first predicted, but watch that slush and thin layer of wet snow on some of the main roads. It's deceptively slick.  Higher elevation roads this morning are snow covered and slippery.

Mid and high elevation roads should remain challenging all day.  In low elevations, if you must get out on the roads, do it at midday and early afternoon. Main roads should mostly be just wet as a bit of a thaw sets in between the bursts of snow this morning and an expected one tonight. 

If that long period of snow comes in tonight as expected, road conditions statewide would deteriorate this evening and remain tricky into Saturday morning.

Power Outages

Power interruptions are still definitely possible, as the snow is wet and heavy.  This issue could happen anywhere in Vermont between now and Saturday afternoon. The best chances of power outages would probably be at mid-elevations in southern and central Vermont, especially along the east slopes of the Green Mountains. 

As of 7 a.m., there weren't any outages to speak of yet in Vermont, but some were cropping up across the pond in New York. 

Outlook:

It'll stay relatively mild through Monday with valley highs getting into the low 30s. Snow showers will continue, especially in the mountains, with additional bits of accumulation to keep the ski slopes fresh.

It'll start turning sharply colder around Tuesday. And we'll need to start thinking about another nor'easter that might or might not happen around December 23.

I'll post updates on this storm as needed through Saturday, of course!